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More Historical Perspective On The Cold

| 6:08 pm January 5, 2010 | Comments (8)

From the Birmingham NWS:

NOUS44 KBMX 052009
PNSBMX
ALZ011>015-017>050-060315-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
210 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2010

…UNUSUAL COLD WEATHER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA…

THE UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HARD FREEZES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AREAWIDE. THESE TYPES OF TEMPERATURES ARE NOT NECESSARILY
UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER…THE DURATION OF THESE
EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES IS UNUSUAL. BIRMINGHAM RECORDED A LOW
THIS MORNING OF 14 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT THE BIRMINGHAM
AIRPORT REACHED 14 DEGREES WAS JANUARY OF 2009. THIS WILL BE OUR
MAIN CONCERN AT HAND…THE LONG DURATION AND EVENTUAL DEEPENING OF
THIS COLD AIR OUTBREAK. WHILE TEMPERATURES ON ANY GIVEN DAY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE RECORD SETTING…THE RECORDS FOR CONSECUTIVE NUMBER
OF COLD DAYS WILL BE THREATENED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT…WITH
STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY 1 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS CENTRAL ALABAMA. TO MAKE
MATTERS EVEN WORSE…WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING…AS WELL AS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS…MAY
FALL BELOW ZERO.

HERE IS A LOOK AT THE HISTORICAL COLD WEATHER STATISTICS AT
TUSCALOOSA…BIRMINGHAM… ANNISTON…AND MONTGOMERY…PERTAINING TO
THE CURRENT COLD SNAP.

AT BIRMINGHAM…THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED (BETWEEN THE
YEARS OF 1895 AND 2009) WAS -10 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 13…1899. THE
COLDEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDED WAS 13 ON DECEMBER 12…1962.
THERE ARE ALSO SEVERAL STREAKS THAT ARE WORTH NOTING. THE FIRST IS
IN REGARDS TO MORNING LOWS. SO FAR BIRMINGHAM HAS NOW RECORDED 4
DAYS…IN WHICH THE LOWS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 25 DEGREES. THE
RECORD CONSECUTIVE STREAK FOR THIS IS 11 DAYS…WITH THE ENDING
DATE OF JANUARY 28…1940. CURRENTLY…THE FORECAST FOR THE
BIRMINGHAM AIRPORT CALLS FOR LOWS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 DEGREES
THROUGH JANUARY 11…WHICH WOULD BRING THE CURRENT STREAK TO 10
DAYS. A SECOND NOTEWORTHY STREAK WOULD BE CONSECUTIVE DAYS IN
WHICH THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES. THE
RECORD IS 4 DAYS…SET BACK IN JANUARY 1978.

SOME RECORD LOWS THROUGH JANUARY 11…ARE AS FOLLOWS…

DAY TEMPERATURE DATE LAST SET
— ———– ————-
5 9 1924
6 4 1924
7 11 1970
8 7 1942
9 5 1970
10 2 1982
11 -1 1982

AT TUSCALOOSA…THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED (BETWEEN THE
YEARS OF 1948 AND 2009) WAS -1 DEGREE ON FEBRUARY 8…1989. THE
COLDEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDED WAS 18 ON DECEMBER 22…1989.
THERE ARE ALSO SEVERAL STREAKS THAT ARE WORTH NOTING. THE FIRST IS
IN REGARDS TO MORNING LOWS. SO FAR TUSCALOOSA HAS NOW RECORDED 3
DAYS…IN WHICH THE LOWS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 25 DEGREES. THE
RECORD CONSECUTIVE STREAK FOR THIS IS 10 DAYS…WITH THE ENDING
DATE OF FEBRUARY 21…1958. CURRENTLY…FORECAST FOR THE
TUSCALOOSA AIRPORT CALLS FOR LOWS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 DEGREES
THROUGH JANUARY 11…WHICH WOULD BRING THE CURRENT STREAK TO 9
DAYS. A SECOND NOTEWORTHY STREAK WOULD BE CONSECUTIVE DAYS IN
WHICH THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES. THE
RECORD IS 4 DAYS…SET BACK IN JANUARY 1977.

SOME RECORD LOWS THROUGH JANUARY 11…ARE AS FOLLOWS…

DAY TEMPERATURE DATE LAST SET
— ———– ————-
5 12 1969
6 13 1959
7 13 1970
8 12 1970
9 6 1970
10 4 1982
11 0 1982

AT ANNISTON…THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED (BETWEEN THE
YEARS OF 1903 AND 2009) WAS -5 DEGREES ON JANUARY 21…1985. THE
COLDEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDED WAS 14 ON FEBRUARY 14…1905.
THERE ARE ALSO SEVERAL STREAKS THAT ARE WORTH NOTING. THE FIRST IS
IN REGARDS TO MORNING LOWS. SO FAR ANNISTON HAS NOW RECORDED 4
DAYS…IN WHICH THE LOWS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 25 DEGREES. THE
RECORD CONSECUTIVE STREAK FOR THIS IS 10 DAYS…WITH THE ENDING
DATE OF JANUARY 7…2001. CURRENTLY…FORECAST FOR THE ANNISTON
AIRPORT CALLS FOR LOWS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 DEGREES THROUGH
JANUARY 12…WHICH WOULD BRING THE CURRENT STREAK TO 11 DAYS…
AND POSSIBLY BREAK THE RECORD. A SECOND NOTEWORTHY STREAK WOULD
BE CONSECUTIVE DAYS IN WHICH THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS AT OR
BELOW 32 DEGREES. THE RECORD IS 4 DAYS…SET BACK IN JANUARY 1977.

SOME RECORD LOWS THROUGH JANUARY 11…ARE AS FOLLOWS…

DAY TEMPERATURE DATE LAST SET
— ———– ————-
5 11 1969
6 14 1959
7 11 1970
8 10 1970
9 2 1970
10 4 1982
11 1 1982

IN MONTGOMERY…THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED (BETWEEN THE
YEARS OF 1872 AND 2009) WAS -5 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 13…1899.
THE COLDEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDED WAS 18 ON JANUARY 9…1886.
THERE ARE ALSO SEVERAL STREAKS THAT ARE WORTH NOTING. THE FIRST IS
IN REGARDS TO MORNING LOWS. SO FAR MONTGOMERY HAS NOW RECORDED 3
DAYS…IN WHICH THE LOWS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 25 DEGREES. THE
RECORD CONSECUTIVE STREAK FOR THIS IS 7 DAYS…WITH THE ENDING
DATE OF JANUARY 5…2001. CURRENTLY…FORECAST FOR THE MONTGOMERY
AIRPORT CALLS FOR LOWS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 DEGREES THROUGH
JANUARY 11…WHICH WOULD EASILY PUT THE CURRENT STREAK INTO THE
RECORD BOOKS. AT THE SAME TIME MONTGOMERY HAS BEEN BELOW 30
DEGREES A RECORD 12 CONSECUTIVE DAYS IN JANUARY OF 1940. UP TO
THIS DAY THERE HAVE BEEN 4 DAYS RECORDED. A THIRD NOTEWORTHY
STREAK WOULD BE CONSECUTIVE DAYS IN WHICH THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
WAS AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES. THE RECORD IS 4 DAYS…SET BACK IN
JANUARY 1897.

SOME RECORD LOWS THROUGH JANUARY 11…ARE AS FOLLOWS…

DAY TEMPERATURE DATE LAST SET
— ———– ————-
5 13 1924, 1884
6 8 1924, 1884
7 15 1970
8 15 1970
9 5 1886
10 10 1886
11 4 1982

MEDIA PARTNERS ARE URGED TO CONVEY COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS TO
VIEWERS…READERS…AND LISTENERS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS COLD
SNAP.

THE ALABAMA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY IS WORKING WITH OTHER STATE
AGENCIES AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WINTER WEATHER. CITIZENS ARE URGED TO DO
THEIR PART AND MAKE SURE THEIR FAMILY…FRIENDS…PETS… AND HOMES
ARE SECURE FROM THE EXTREME TEMPERATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON WINTER WEATHER SAFETY…VISIT THE NWS
WEBSITE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/WINTER.

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Comments (8)

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  1. Jeff from Hoover says:

    Any new models out yet

  2. Ruth says:

    00Z NAM is out…dryer, yet i am still hopeful!

  3. chris says:

    Nam is drier. if this model is correct we would see very light snow (almost flurries) and maybe a half an inch.

  4. Michael Mills says:

    Look the models will go back and forth I think the best thing to do is wait till Thursday and look out the window.

  5. Hunter says:

    My wife’s unbiased prediction without having seen a model or spending time on this website 2 inches!

  6. ian (Alabaster) says:

    Hunter, the latest NAM says about 2 flakes, but I hope your wife is right!

  7. OutofMilk says:

    Folks how many times have we seen this happen? This is the same old song and dance for those of us living in Alabama. The models can’t ever seem to handle cold weather and moisture mixing for our state or for the Gulf Coast states for the matter. I have been a reader of this blog for a long time and I can’t count on both hands the number of times we have experienced this exact scenario. Models tell us snow is coming and then once we get within 36 hours of the event they back way off. I’m not meteorological expert but based on past winter weather ‘trends’ of the Southeast and using the ‘analogs’ of past experiences I’m going to walk out on a limb and predict a few flurries with a possible dusting for north and central Alabama.

  8. BAMA13-0 says:

    WHEN? Snow should enter West Alabama tomorrow morning, as early as 6:00 a.m. The primary window for snow will be from about 9:00 a.m. until 6:00 p.m.

    HOW MUCH? This won’t be an especially heavy snow event; but one to two inches are very possible for Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston, and then south to a line from York to Demopolis to Prattville to Lafayette. North of Birmingham we expect only a dusting to one inch due to limited moisture, and a wintry mix for Montgomery. The southern quarter of the state will see a cold rain.

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