Wet-Down Ahead
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GOOD SOAKING: Our next southern stream storm system is here; rain is falling over much of West and South Alabama this morning, and rain will be widespread statewide this afternoon and tonight. The most recent model runs are drier; the NAM is now printing 0.95″ for Birmingham, while the GFS shows 1.44″. We don’t expect any major flooding problems around here, although the NWS in Mobile has issued a flash flood watch for their counties down in South Alabama, where rain amounts could be heavier.
TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: The heaviest rain will move east of Alabama by tomorrow morning as the surface low in the Gulf moves up into southern Georgia. However, clouds will hang around all day with some light rain or drizzle. Saturday still looks like a rather raw day, with clouds, a chilly north breeze, and temperatures in the 40s all day. We might see a little drizzle Saturday morning, but most of the day should be dry. Then, sunshine returns in full force Sunday with a high in the upper 40s.
NEXT WEEK: The next storm system in the southern jet will arrive early in the week, with periods of rain by Monday night and Tuesday. This one doesn’t look quite as wet; rain amounts of 1/2 inch seem likely. We note the ECMWF is slower, showing most of the rain on Tuesday. All global models are showing the atmosphere to be warm enough for all rain here in Alabama; some snow is possible to the north over Arkansas and Tennessee.
VOODOO LAND: Keep an eye on that storm system at the end of next week and the following weekend (2/12-14)… strongly negative AO and major southern branch storm usually means snow or ice some somebody over the southern half of the nation. The operational GFS runs have been showing mostly rain here, but nobody knows for now. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for more details.
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I am on the road this morning to Clay County to speak at Lineville Elementary School… I will be back by early afternoon and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day and stay dry!
February 4th, 2010 at 6:11 am
Good Morning everyone. Havent posted in a while. Hope everyone has a good day and can stay dry. James be careful in your travels to Clay county.
February 4th, 2010 at 6:27 am
I love it when you say the insane hour of 5:00 a.m. I always agree with you! I will say that you only guarantee that the video will by up by 7:00 a.m. Snooze a little!!
February 4th, 2010 at 8:00 am
Good morning every one,
How ya doing Dave bet you are waiting on spring. I’m looking for the next couple of weeks to be sort of rough weather wise. Negative AO + nino is always wet and cold. wet + cold eventually gets frozen precipitation and we have had cold. The ground isn’t frozen now but it is cold and not that far from frozen. We have lots of snow to the not to far north and the arctic air doesn’t have much to modify it heading south so negative AO will be cold. How long will it last? Don’t know but if it last a few southern jet storms there is that chance for wintry precip. Do I trust the models? NO. there is just to much uncertainty to be to trusting. Closer to the events the better the results. Personal opinion, we will get at least on nice snow 2-3 inches or so for N E Alabama. Is it our turn? no more than at any other time. Just have to wait and see what is coming. For sure wet and for sure cold. Where they meet at what time is what will count. Have to wait and see.
Low in Vigo this morning 35
current temp 40
not raining yet but radar seem to indicate soon.
winds light from the NE
humidity 81%
DP 35
Pressure 30.09 and steady
skies are cloudy.
Looks like a good day to get the wife and put a pallet in front of the fireplace and just enjoy each other’s company.
Have a wonderful day everyone, God gave it to us so enjoy it.
Bill
February 4th, 2010 at 8:19 am
I was just looking at the radar on the main blog page which shows the whole viewing area in green…..which usually translates rain. However, I just drove 20 miles & only a handful of sprinkles hit my windshield the whole time while driving into the Hanceville area. I’m rather surprised about that since we are supposed to be getting lots of rain already. Maybe James is right, maybe most of it will stay South & West of us.
February 4th, 2010 at 8:59 am
‘morning Bill, yes, Im anxiously awaiting to see if my arthritic knees will let me ride more this year than I did last, which was not very much at all.
Kelly, snowlover, James may deem 5am as insane, but to me its a great hour, just 1 1/2 more to go before I get off work. Yes, I went back to the 11-7 shift for this year…. what in the world was I thinking?!?!?!?!
February 4th, 2010 at 9:24 am
McCalla LOW 39 NOW 40 light rain
dp 35 EAST 4 30.22
I think We will see snow soon.
February 4th, 2010 at 12:51 pm
Bring on the Snow. I want snow. People think I’m crazy, but it gives me a chance to get out and act like a kid without the neighbors thinking I’m crazy. 5 grandkids having a ball.
February 4th, 2010 at 1:10 pm
Noon GFS interesting for next Thursday/Friday (180 hours). The models are trying to catch on to the negative AO but I still don’t think they’re getting it yet. Too early but I’m bettin the storm next weekend gets more interesting from here on out with each model run. If the AO is on, and it usually is, there has to be more cold air than the models are grasping at this point. That 12z run is the first indication of light snow this far down with that storm and it’s been there for a while. 540 line all the way to S Alabama and that matches up much better with a negative AO for that time frame. Keep in mind models won’t understand 61% snow cover north of here either. I think James has been right on target with warning of a cold snap the models don’t really show. Gonna be fun to watch as the models come out over the next few days. Again, my amateur prediction is that by Sunday, the event next weekend begins to look very interesting for us.