Finally our turn?
More details later…but the GFS and now the European and Canadian models are all showing snow for north Alabama Friday, maybe as far south as Montgomery. With El Nino providing lots of precipitation, and an AO that keeps going negative and allowing cold air to move south, it’s surprising we’ve gone this long without a snow event. They’ve happened already in Oklahoma (twice), Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, and even in south Texas this winter.
It will remain cold for the next week or so, with temperatures briefly warming up Monday (50s) ahead of the next rain event on Tuesday. It will turn cold again Wednesday and Thursday, and then we may have precipitation on Friday, in the form of snow. It’s still 6 days away, but for this far out, the model agreement suggests at least some confidence.
The persistence of below normal temperatures this year is noteworthy also. In a normal winter (Dec-Feb), we have 25 days with highs below 50 degrees. We’ve already had 31 so far this winter (counting today), with probably at least 4 or 5 coming in the next week. The most we’ve ever had was in the winter of 1970-71 (51 days with highs below 50). So, in another category, this winter is one of our coldest ever in BHM. The water temperature at the Warrior River the other day was still 48. Wow.
February 6th, 2010 at 4:07 pm
I’m ready! I’m ready! I’m ready!
February 6th, 2010 at 4:08 pm
Lookin for snow in Hsv! About time! I know it’s pretty far out but I’m going to assume we get the standard “1-3 inches” guesstimate.
February 6th, 2010 at 4:17 pm
I KNOW THE MODELS WILL FLIP FLOP OVER AND OVER AGAIN, BUT THE 18Z DOES NOT LOOK GOOD
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_138m.gif
February 6th, 2010 at 4:18 pm
DR. TIM,
WHAT ARE THE OTHER WEATHER MODELS SHOWING?? EURO, GEM, ETC…
February 6th, 2010 at 4:20 pm
18z has a dry bias
February 6th, 2010 at 4:21 pm
GFS has always been trending more south, however, the last couple of runs, the moisture pushes northward. Hopefully, the 18z is just an outlier
February 6th, 2010 at 4:22 pm
Good to see you optimistic on our chances. Are you worried about suppression at this point? New GFS looks pretty dry for AL and GA…cold but no snow. Of course it seems like every storm trends northward over time but the GFS has been consistent in showing a suppressed solution. Could be a big deal in S AL and C GA, though, if this keeps up. Thanks for the analysis!
February 6th, 2010 at 4:26 pm
I cannot believe ya”ll are already talking about sry trends….The models are all over the place….The cold air wil be there…worrying about the amounts more then 150 hrs from the event makes no sense…right now its about “IF” there will be any precip to start with…Dusting-2 feet is about how close your gonna get to knowing how much snow we could get…so wait till the storm starts showing up on the NAM to start looking for dry trends,etc…Right now theres a pretty good chance that there will be moisture…besides 18z is the idiot run anyways.lol
February 6th, 2010 at 4:27 pm
never fails…right when I get my hopes up, GFS blows the day…please show me something good…other models??
February 6th, 2010 at 4:28 pm
sean in atl,
can you explain why the 18z is an idiot run…? I have heard that before, just don’t know why.
Thanks!
February 6th, 2010 at 4:30 pm
Everyone should get on live chat that will make further analysis easier…lolz
February 6th, 2010 at 4:34 pm
6z and 18z usuall trend drier and are full of old(er) data…00z on the other hand has new data…thats why that is “usually” the best run to focus on if your forecasting snow events….but Im not a meteorologist (yet) so….lolz Hope that helped!!!
February 6th, 2010 at 4:35 pm
thanks!
February 6th, 2010 at 4:40 pm
That low just seems to far south….It should be closer to the gulf if not inland….its amazing how much this reminds me of the January 7th storm…ughh what a “bust”…The farther inland or closer to the coast this tracks the more moisture we get…As zb mentioned I hope “SUPPRESSION” isnt a major factor otherwise this could turn out to be a major “bust”…But Thats later “NEXT” week…The upcoming Monday,Tuesday storm needs to be kept under close eye…Not really for snow but for that freezing rain…Just wanted to mention!!!!
February 6th, 2010 at 4:47 pm
No freezing rain…………………………Ever.
February 6th, 2010 at 4:50 pm
Its possible in the nexty event. Srry to mention but it is a possibilty. Noaa has us having snow showers but the models show like a (couple) hour window for snow..
February 6th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
Just a note… most all the gulf lows have tracker further to the north. So I think in the long term we dont need to worry about the moisture.. i have a feeling the low will more north with more runs. The temp has been around 34-38 with most all of the systems. Temp seems to be the major factor
February 6th, 2010 at 4:53 pm
Really guys? The Euro has basically nailed precip, precip type, thickness levels, etc for most of the winter, especially lately. Why are you all so concerned about the 18zgfs which has been the worst model all winter by far? This storm has not been suppressed the entire time, and neither is the low too far south. Chances are it will be more northward. It seems like one run of a below par model makes people think the chances are gone, then everyone complains. Lets all try to learn about models, and their tendences before we jump ship and complain.
February 6th, 2010 at 4:55 pm
Tyler…The temp should be good enough for snowfall…and the lows have been tracking NE and becoming Nor’easters…This storm may be different but it is very likely this will be a storm that track near the coast if not inland..the models are probably just struggling…
February 6th, 2010 at 4:56 pm
will,
show me a link to the euro
February 6th, 2010 at 4:56 pm
please
February 6th, 2010 at 4:57 pm
Will: It’s way too cold to SWIM, so I’m still here, Mate.
February 6th, 2010 at 5:00 pm
EXACTLY…Will: do u have a link to the EURO. AN actually the NAM has been the worst for forecasting winter storms the most…The Euro in most cases have been to moist…and the canadian has just been all over the place…The GFS is in-between…
February 6th, 2010 at 5:06 pm
I am going to save the hours that show possible snow with system from each run, each day and then compile the data and see how the trend is and then once the system has passed we will see the results. Also this will show how the models react
February 6th, 2010 at 5:07 pm
Evrybody should get on live chat… Its better for analysis and opinions
February 6th, 2010 at 5:13 pm
Guys, it would be helpful if we could tell who is talking about Alabama and who is talking about Georgia. It snows in Georgia without snowing in Alabama. Seems to me that happens a lot.
February 6th, 2010 at 5:21 pm
I agree that would be helpful . . . since this is an Alabama weather blog, I always assume we’re talking about Alabama!
February 6th, 2010 at 6:10 pm
the models have been predicting snow for alabama consistently 7-10 days out on just about every run for the past 7 years during winter. i’m not so sure we need to pay attention to any model predicting snow for north central alabama more than 2 days out
February 6th, 2010 at 6:18 pm
Hey DoraMom: Your comment on Post#26,!!! NOT!!! since we’ve lived here. We live about 10 miles west of Marietta and have lived here since Oct 2005. Can’t remember a snow over 3/4″ at any give snow event. We lived in North Shelby Co. behind Oak Mtn. Middle School for 13 years and of course we were there for the Blizzard of 93. Back to your statement you may be correct for the North Ga. Mountain area, but the same argument can be made for NE Ala vs.Bham., as the No.Ga Mtn vs. Atlanta. Once again over the past 5 years here near Marietta we’ve had very little winter weather.
February 6th, 2010 at 6:19 pm
It would be sweet if it snowed on Friday – that’s my birthday…
February 6th, 2010 at 6:25 pm
First we have to figure out the track of the low…Then The amount of Precip…
February 6th, 2010 at 6:40 pm
Wayne: What about March 1,2009 when there was Thundersnow in Atlanta.
Plus, I’m going to Montgomery Friday I hope it snows there but ,i’m going to give an Elementary guess and go with 5 inches with ThunderSnow and Blizzard Conditions most likely not happening.
February 6th, 2010 at 9:17 pm
Hey Kari: Don’t know if you’ll be back on but I remember the “Thundersnow” in Atlanta last year. We live out in West Cobb Co. Did we hear thunder yes, 1 clap period, yes ONE CLAP! If I remember correctly Pearchtree City NWS didn’t put a Winter Storm Warning up until it started snowing. Then TWC put up a forecast for 3″ to 5″ on their “Local on the 8s” after it started, for about an hour. Then started lowering their accum totals. Got all excited when TWC first put that 3″to5″, then the amounts started going down. We ended up just short of an inch here. I won’t go into my feelings how that event was handled by the pros over here.
If I remember correctly I looked at the overlay of NAM snow totals in ALA. and GA. and it looked like parts of Alabama got more snow from that event then we did. Especially here west of Maritta.
February 6th, 2010 at 10:47 pm
00Z-GFS is out: Looks to me like it has the Fridays low in the South Central Gulf then moving it from Friday into Saturday into the Fla.Straits?
February 7th, 2010 at 2:04 am
“#28 Brad Utsey Says:” You are correct! Then the models start to back off.
February 7th, 2010 at 7:19 am
Wayne:Down here in south alabama we got less of an inch. More like a Flizzard Event in Greenville even though it lasted from 5 A.M to 1 P.M. I wish we could gotten some convection in for some Thundersnow but, it was reported in the Auburn-Opelika area were 5 inches fell.
I hope Greenville or Montgomery gets atleast 3 inches of Snow before this winter is over.