Cold, Unsettled Week

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BE NICE: As usual, with any mention of snow around here, for some reason, the subject becomes as controversial as politics or college football, so here is the standard encouragement to be nice on the blog and live chat. Your participation is a big part of what we do, but the trolls, know-it-alls, and haters tend to come out in full force during winter weather potential events around here. Let’s all remember the important stuff in life; this is just weather, you know.

NEXT 48 HOURS: After a weekend that refused to allow any sunshine around here, clouds from the next system are already knocking on the door. You might see a little sun this morning in parts of Alabama, but it won’t last long. In fact, we already have some echoes on radar to the north over the northwest corner of Alabama. Most likely, this isn’t reaching the ground, but it sure looks like some sleet or light snow is possible this morning over the far northern part of Alabama, mainly along and north of the Tennessee River. Around here (the I-20/50 corridor), it looks like the day will be mostly cloudy with a high in the mid to upper 40s.

The bulk of the rain with the next storm system should come from about midnight tonight through noon tomorrow; rain amounts of 1 inch are likely, with isolated amounts to 2 inches. It sure looks like temperatures will begin to fall tomorrow afternoon, and we can’t rule out a few snow flakes on the back side of the departing storm system. For now, it looks like it won’t amount to much if it happens, but thickness values drop pretty dramatically tomorrow afternoon. So, we could be in the mid 30s late tomorrow afternoon with a few snow flurries as you drive home from work.

TO THE NORTH: Yet another big snow event seems to be shaping up for the northern half of Arkansas, and parts of the mid-South. Winter storm warnings are up for the Little Rock and Memphis areas; some places along and north of I-40 in Arkansas could see well over 5 inches of snow from this system, and we note the NWS in Memphis is reporting around 2 inches on the ground right now; more snow is likely for Memphis tonight into early tomorrow.

LATE REPORT: Getting reports now of accumulating snow over the northwest corner of Alabama this morning, with some travel issues over parts of Lauderdale and Colbert counties. Looks like a little Monday morning surprise for the Shoals area… again, use caution if you are headed up that way.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: We will be in-between storm systems on these days; the weather will be dry and cold with a high in the low to mid 40s.

DEEP SOUTH WINTER STORM FRIDAY? This is the one creating all the buzz… but nobody, and I mean nobody, knows details this far in advance. But, synoptically speaking, the idea of a Friday snow event for parts of the Deep South looks good.

Most of the global models are painting a strong surface low developing well south of the Gulf Coast Friday, and the heaviest precipitation shows up over the southern half of the state. Both the GFS and the ECMWF suggest only light snow for the I-20 corridor, with the “sweet spot” perhaps for a place like Montgomery, Auburn, Demopolis, Greenville, Troy, or even Dothan! Watch the Weather Xtreme video for the full graphics. This is bound to change, but for now the model consistency looks very good.

You know what I am going to say, but we really need to get tomorrow’s system out of here before we can get too specific on the end of the week system. But, confidence is good somebody in Alabama will see accumulating snow Friday; we just don’t know if it will be Dothan, Montgomery, or Birmingham. You folks in extreme North Alabama (the Tennessee Valley) might miss out on this one with all of the action to the south.

THE WEEKEND: Cold and dry weather is likely Saturday and Sunday in the wake of the departing winter storm; highs will be only in the 30s and 40s.

LONG RANGE: The Arctic Oscillation remains strongly negative through mid-month, and with the active southern stream that leaves the door open for more winter weather issues for the southern U.S. in coming weeks, so the fun and games could very well continue.

STORM ALERT 2010 IS COMING TO WALKER COUNTY THIS WEEK: Our annual severe weather rolls along; our next stop will be on Thursday February 11 at Bevill State Community College in Sumiton. You can meet the ABC 33/40 Weather team, see some amazing Alabama weather stories, learn how to keep your family safe this tornado season, and win some cool stuff. The show begins at 7:00; be sure and get there early to get a good seat. See the entire tour schedule here!

LIVE CHAT: We are now offering a real time chat here on the blog… open blog comments will stay in place, of course, but this will allow a more immediate method of communication for weather geeks. We do have moderators posted over there, so be sure and play nice. Members of our weather team will be there from time to time to answer questions; we will post those times we are available here on the blog.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Tonight, Dave Freeman from KSN in Wichita will join the show as the Guest WeatherBrain. He will certainly have some stories to tell. He also is a leader in leveraging social science in making weather forecasts better. The show will be posted by 11:00 or so.

This morning I will be doing a weather program at South Shades Crest Elementary School in Hoover… I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be here by 3:30. Enjoy the day!

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