Cold, Unsettled Week
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BE NICE: As usual, with any mention of snow around here, for some reason, the subject becomes as controversial as politics or college football, so here is the standard encouragement to be nice on the blog and live chat. Your participation is a big part of what we do, but the trolls, know-it-alls, and haters tend to come out in full force during winter weather potential events around here. Let’s all remember the important stuff in life; this is just weather, you know.
NEXT 48 HOURS: After a weekend that refused to allow any sunshine around here, clouds from the next system are already knocking on the door. You might see a little sun this morning in parts of Alabama, but it won’t last long. In fact, we already have some echoes on radar to the north over the northwest corner of Alabama. Most likely, this isn’t reaching the ground, but it sure looks like some sleet or light snow is possible this morning over the far northern part of Alabama, mainly along and north of the Tennessee River. Around here (the I-20/50 corridor), it looks like the day will be mostly cloudy with a high in the mid to upper 40s.
The bulk of the rain with the next storm system should come from about midnight tonight through noon tomorrow; rain amounts of 1 inch are likely, with isolated amounts to 2 inches. It sure looks like temperatures will begin to fall tomorrow afternoon, and we can’t rule out a few snow flakes on the back side of the departing storm system. For now, it looks like it won’t amount to much if it happens, but thickness values drop pretty dramatically tomorrow afternoon. So, we could be in the mid 30s late tomorrow afternoon with a few snow flurries as you drive home from work.
TO THE NORTH: Yet another big snow event seems to be shaping up for the northern half of Arkansas, and parts of the mid-South. Winter storm warnings are up for the Little Rock and Memphis areas; some places along and north of I-40 in Arkansas could see well over 5 inches of snow from this system, and we note the NWS in Memphis is reporting around 2 inches on the ground right now; more snow is likely for Memphis tonight into early tomorrow.
LATE REPORT: Getting reports now of accumulating snow over the northwest corner of Alabama this morning, with some travel issues over parts of Lauderdale and Colbert counties. Looks like a little Monday morning surprise for the Shoals area… again, use caution if you are headed up that way.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: We will be in-between storm systems on these days; the weather will be dry and cold with a high in the low to mid 40s.
DEEP SOUTH WINTER STORM FRIDAY? This is the one creating all the buzz… but nobody, and I mean nobody, knows details this far in advance. But, synoptically speaking, the idea of a Friday snow event for parts of the Deep South looks good.
Most of the global models are painting a strong surface low developing well south of the Gulf Coast Friday, and the heaviest precipitation shows up over the southern half of the state. Both the GFS and the ECMWF suggest only light snow for the I-20 corridor, with the “sweet spot” perhaps for a place like Montgomery, Auburn, Demopolis, Greenville, Troy, or even Dothan! Watch the Weather Xtreme video for the full graphics. This is bound to change, but for now the model consistency looks very good.
You know what I am going to say, but we really need to get tomorrow’s system out of here before we can get too specific on the end of the week system. But, confidence is good somebody in Alabama will see accumulating snow Friday; we just don’t know if it will be Dothan, Montgomery, or Birmingham. You folks in extreme North Alabama (the Tennessee Valley) might miss out on this one with all of the action to the south.
THE WEEKEND: Cold and dry weather is likely Saturday and Sunday in the wake of the departing winter storm; highs will be only in the 30s and 40s.
LONG RANGE: The Arctic Oscillation remains strongly negative through mid-month, and with the active southern stream that leaves the door open for more winter weather issues for the southern U.S. in coming weeks, so the fun and games could very well continue.
STORM ALERT 2010 IS COMING TO WALKER COUNTY THIS WEEK: Our annual severe weather rolls along; our next stop will be on Thursday February 11 at Bevill State Community College in Sumiton. You can meet the ABC 33/40 Weather team, see some amazing Alabama weather stories, learn how to keep your family safe this tornado season, and win some cool stuff. The show begins at 7:00; be sure and get there early to get a good seat. See the entire tour schedule here!
LIVE CHAT: We are now offering a real time chat here on the blog… open blog comments will stay in place, of course, but this will allow a more immediate method of communication for weather geeks. We do have moderators posted over there, so be sure and play nice. Members of our weather team will be there from time to time to answer questions; we will post those times we are available here on the blog.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Tonight, Dave Freeman from KSN in Wichita will join the show as the Guest WeatherBrain. He will certainly have some stories to tell. He also is a leader in leveraging social science in making weather forecasts better. The show will be posted by 11:00 or so.
This morning I will be doing a weather program at South Shades Crest Elementary School in Hoover… I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be here by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
February 8th, 2010 at 6:21 am
It’s just not right that south Alabama could get snow and not us. That is the way that it goes I guess. How did the model runs look this morning??
February 8th, 2010 at 6:34 am
Ashley,
I am no Met and not affiliated with any weather site, but models I have been looking at show another low to the north around the time this Gulf storm forms and I believe that will pull it up toward the north and that is just not being factored in at this time.
My best guess at this with that feature and considering it is February is that Mobile does not get snow and the I-20 to I-40 would be the top to bottom lines of the snow with a few inches at both sides and a lot in the middle which just so happens to be where I am in Chattanooga. I think Birmingham will get snow, Atlanta, Chattanooga heavy and light in Nashville, and the Heavy again in the Western Carolinas and Eastern TN. If you are in Birmingham area or north of there, I think you have a chance this time around. I just do not see it snowing south of there with that low to the north and this being February with the sun angle.
Mark
February 8th, 2010 at 6:59 am
Ok, I am not a troll or hater and really don’t care if it snows or what because our weather is goofy anyway. I am just wondering why when there is snow forecasted around Tenn or Ark. or really just to our North like about two weeks ago their forecast five days out is right on the money? What I am trying to say is I read forecast all the time on NWS and other sites and when they say snow it is what it is they don’t say well we are five days out and everything might change. In there 7 day forecast package if they got snow for Friday they don’t say anything other than its going to snow Friday. I guess I am asking if the forecast package is not worthy for a 7 day package why have it? Or maybe why is our weather so different from the rest of the country?
February 8th, 2010 at 7:01 am
Mark the thing I see here is the cold temperatures on the way that cold would push the snow down south like it has done before. I hope we can see some this time but I won’t count on it untill I see it comeing down.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:19 am
If this happens Friday, what time would it start?
February 8th, 2010 at 7:27 am
Mark – I hope that you are right. I am just north of 1-20 in East Al and we always seem to get disapoitned with snow over here. It would be nice to see a nice inch or so.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:32 am
I’m in Montgomery and have a major event planned for Friday…so I hope all the snow heads north. This time, you guys can have it all.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:36 am
Snow is where I exit the blog. But with all due respect, James -
the ‘lovers’ cause as much mischief as the “haters, trolls, and
know it alls”.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:39 am
4″ of snow here in Memphis and still coming down. 4 hours ago, nothing. And as of 10pm news last night none was expected and no closing were announced. This morning everything is shut down. The roads are a mess.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:55 am
Birmingham is always a rip off city no matter what! if they say its gonna snow here it never does but if it do maybe be an inch or so will fall if that. we never get ther real big snows here and i wonder why cause its so odd for the computer models to always have the deeper moisture south of us or around us but i guess if u want to see real snow you will have to move out of the state because birmingham always seems to have bad luck when it comes to snow and lets not forget the last real snowstorm we have had was back in 93 and just think how long that’s been besides the little snow we had last year in march that wasn’t nothing cause it didn’t shut the city down at all little kids down here want 6-12 inch snows not 1 to 2 inch snows u can’t do anything with that really…
February 8th, 2010 at 8:06 am
Go morning everyone,
here in Vigo this morning
Low 27
current temp 34
pressure 29.97
humidity 81%
DP 30
winds light generally from the East
Now that the warm up is done for a while It is going to very interesting for the next couple of weeks. It seems that the AO is going to stay negative for a couple of weeks or so and that the nino will keep pushing the southern jet but the nino seems to be starting to weaken. I hope that doesn’t precursor a wet cool summer. I don’t want to return to the drought of a couple of years ago but would sure like to get the garden in a little earlier this year but it doesn’t look favorable for earlier planting.
Just for interest sake the Commentator/met on the weather Chanel just made the statement that no snow in the Vancouver BC area for the Olympics and they are trucking in snow then the standard (just another sign of Global warming). I can’t quote the exact words but then the other commentator/met reminded him that this is part of the nino effect and not necessarily global warming. Some folks just can’t get the idea that everything isn’t proved and that with the revelations from the centers of climate study coming out there are serious doubts about the accuracy of the information and statistical procedures used in the climate models.
That said I think that the next 30 years or so will be a great learning time for our understanding of the science of climate. I think we will learn much more about what drives the climate than we do now if we will just have open minds and go back to the pure scientific method. Just like our near term weather models get more divergent the farther out from the event so do the climate models. I like the forecasters here at 33/40 in that they tell you it just isn’t possible to be specific more than 48 to 60 hours out and then it could still change.
In 50 years history will either say we are heroes or fools depending on what the natural cycles do. As we learn more we will get better but until then there is no way to predict out 50 or 100 years. Maybe the old weather rock is a good thing. My grand dad would predict the weather by the actions of the animals around him in the wild. He was usually right.
Looking forward to better understanding and more accurate predictions. both short term and long term. Until then it is better to prepare for the worst and pray for the best. Only God knows for sure what is coming.
Bill
February 8th, 2010 at 8:06 am
This thing looks like it is setting up for an I-20/59 special. I dont think that North Bama will be shut out of the snow they just wont get as much as the I20 corridor will. I don’t trust the GFS models putting the low that far south. Thats not been the consistent track. Again it is too far out to get specific with where and how much but thats going to be a pretty deep low one the likes of which we haven’t seen come through lately with this much cold air in place. I have the feeling as we get closer this thing will slow a bit too. By Tuesday nightwe should have a really good idea on who, what, when, and where.
February 8th, 2010 at 8:32 am
So are they concerened at all that we might have the chance of snow tonight and tomorrow from this rain system?? Memphis was forcasted to get all rain and they are socked in with snow…..just a thought.
February 8th, 2010 at 8:38 am
Nice forecast James…. keeps all possibilities in play.
And I have to agree that the snow “lovers” do cause just as much grief as the snow “haters”. I’m constantly surprised at those who get upset because it doesn’t snow. It’s Birmingham, Alabama… seasonal, accumulating snow isn’t part of this climate.
February 8th, 2010 at 8:43 am
Enjoying the snow we are getting up here in Huntsville . . .
Nice to wake up to falling flakes of white.
February 8th, 2010 at 8:54 am
McCalla LOW 33 NOW 35 CLOUDY
DP 29 CALM 30.13
February 8th, 2010 at 8:59 am
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
832 AM CST MON FEB 8 2010
ALZ001-002-081800-
/O.UPG.KHUN.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-100208T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KHUN.WS.W.0002.100208T1432Z-100208T1800Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FLORENCE…MUSCLE SHOALS
832 AM CST MON FEB 8 2010
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SLEET AND SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
CST TODAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA…AND
WITH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING… ACCUMULATIONS ARE
OCCURRING. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE
LIKELY…ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE TO ROGERSVILLE.
FURTHER SOUTH…ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW OR SLEET
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS
AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
February 8th, 2010 at 9:19 am
Oh this time I am driving to the snow no matter where it is! My girls were so disappointed last time! We are definitely going to play in the snow some how some way!
February 8th, 2010 at 12:06 pm
What are the chances of any travel issues between Birmingham and Knoxville Saturday morning? We are headed to Gatlinburg for the weekend and do not want to spend the night on the interstate. Been there, done that, and have the fleece sweater to show for it. We traveled in light snow at the end of December 2000 for New Years and got iced in on I-75 just south of Athens, Tn. Never want to do that again.
February 8th, 2010 at 5:36 pm
Hi Ashley,
Of course, you know I am not a meteorologist or affiliated with a weather site, but I do look at NAO, AO, Greenland blocking etc. I am also going by what I consider our last cold phase 30 year climatology pattern rather than the 30 year warming pattern and I pick out years in the cold pattern that had El-Nino conditions even though no two winters are alike.
I see the cold air coming all the way down even into Florida, but I also know in the South cold air tends to dry things out and the Sun angle in February is different than I late December or January. I see on the future maps what looks to be the Gulf storm forming, but also another low to our north near the southern Great lakes and if that second low gets strong enough, I think it could help pull the Gulf storm more northward rather than it going just east. If that happens with the cold air in place, I think the I-20 all the way up to I-40 would be the area for snow with the more significant amounts around the Alabama/TN border. That would mean perhaps three inches in Birmingham and perhaps six inches in Atlanta and more in my old home town Scottsboro and where I live now in Chattanooga.
I also think there are other chances after this one in the next 14 days because of the AO being so negative almost off the charts.
Whatever happens if we miss out on snow, remember all the blessings in life we have to be thankful for.
God bless,
Mark
February 8th, 2010 at 5:44 pm
Hi Michael Mills,
Are you in Southern Alabama? Like Mr. Spann was saying in the video, there is at least a chance for snow down there, but too far out for anyone to know for sure.
My wish is that everyone that loves snow gets a good snow this winter so long as no one gets hurt like in car accidents etc.
Wherever you are in the State, I hope you get tons of snow and I hope Chattanooga gets snow again too.
I am a storm chaser so I can run after a snow storm and I do run after hurricanes and have been in several of them. What helps me where I live is I can get to the Smokey Mountains pretty fast for the huge snows. I can also drive down to Pensacola or Mobile for a hurricane and have been in two hurricanes in Pensacola and one in Mobile. I was in one in southern Florida too and I hate to admit it but that one was all over the place and I was zig zagging back and forth in Florida after that one. I never go near the coast or low areas in a hurricane because I am not taking chances with water levels.
I hope you and everyone here has a wonderful week.
God bless,
Mark