Is it our turn? Monday 1 pm update!
A quick update on the potential central and south Alabama snowstorm on Friday (even though the snow this morning in north Alabama was almost totally unexpected by anyone in meteorology!).
Models continue to show low forming in Gulf on Thursday night as another upper-level disturbance moves in. Cold air will be in place this time, likely at least as far south as MGM, and maybe even in Greenville, Opp, and Enterprise. The northern extent of the moisture is still the primary issue. Snow amounts for BHM from three main models:
Canadian: 2″
GFS: 1″
European: 1″.
This storm is still days away, and we have to get tomorrow’s storm (that should be all rain in Alabama) out of the way before we can get a good handle on the next one. However, I would say that it is likely that parts of Alabama will have accumulating snow on Friday…with the most likely area being Demopolis, Selma, Montgomery, and Auburn.
February 8th, 2010 at 1:32 pm
The trend this winter has been for the storms to come north. Expect the heavier axis to shift to the I-20 corridor.
February 8th, 2010 at 1:44 pm
Once again, the warmer parts of the state get the snow while those who have to suffer through the cold winters get nothing.
February 8th, 2010 at 1:51 pm
can anyone tell where the low pressure center that is suppose to move across central mississippi tonight is located at rt now..i looked at the water vapor and couldnt define it…
February 8th, 2010 at 1:59 pm
So not fair that southern al gets snow and we don’t. Jeff while I respect your opinion, Dr. Tim is a meterologist and has spent a lot of time studying this. The models have been trending south with every run so it seems likely that that is where the heaviest snow amounts would likely occur. However, the system is still 5 days out and a LOT can happen between now and then.
February 8th, 2010 at 2:00 pm
If it’s only 1 inch of snow then how can you call it a snowstorm????
February 8th, 2010 at 2:06 pm
John – agreed. I am personally tired of the cold and snow and don’t want any of it. I really hope it doesn’t disrupt school because we already took our weather day for our non snow day we had back in January.
February 8th, 2010 at 2:09 pm
Just because a model shows something means nothing. The low has not even developed. The meteorologist can only make a forecast due to what the models show. If the models trend more north by Thursday then the axis would shift north and the forecast will change. The forecast can change even when the preip. is here like last time. Central Alabama had been forcasted to get snow and got rain and sleet with warm temps. This morning is another example of why you should not live by the models.
February 8th, 2010 at 2:11 pm
I have been right on each of the last 3 snow threats, all busts, for central alabama.
This time though, my charts indicate, on a line from Columbus, Tuscaloosa, to Boaz an accumulating snow of 8 inches, starting lightly Thursday night, amplifying around 3 am Friday and moving on out around 2PM Friday. I see even an inch as far south as Dothan.
February 8th, 2010 at 2:17 pm
I think the best thing to do is just wait and see we will have a better idea on Wednesday afternoon or night.
February 8th, 2010 at 2:36 pm
I think we in Shelby County will go to bed Thursday night with rain and wake up Friday morning to rain. It always looks like we will get snow and then warms up or they system weakens. I predict no snow!!!
February 8th, 2010 at 2:41 pm
Until I walk outside of my house and feel a crunch of snow under my feet, I will not believe that it will snow. I have been burned too many times and am jaded to winter weather predictions. Models fail to see all of the intricacies that go into a measurable snowfall.
February 8th, 2010 at 2:44 pm
hey you guys check this link out… If this were to pan out that would be a great snow storm…
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_114HR.gif
February 8th, 2010 at 2:47 pm
When I was a little girl I would pray for snow! Nowadays, I’ve learned to assume we’ll get no snow . . . that way if anything does develop, it’s a nice surprise. I guess a trip to Colorado is the only way it’s a sure thing!
February 8th, 2010 at 2:48 pm
Usually when it does snow here No One sees it coming , and when it is forecasted we will get snow ,it usually does not. It would seem the ability to forecast snow here in Alabama is still in the year 2010, a guessing game.The forecasters here dont see enough of it to know how to predict what will happen.Rain and thunderstorms, now there is something you guys forecast with uncanny accuracy ! Becuase you Do see a lot of it LOL !! Have a Great day
February 8th, 2010 at 2:50 pm
I agree,1 inch is definitly not considered a storm no matter where you live.
The snow today was hilarious!
I guess its true what I heard when I first moved here, the big snows are never predicted and the predicted storms never happen!
February 8th, 2010 at 3:09 pm
Whatever Will Be Will Be, if it snows Friday we can say hey it snowed and if it doesn’t we can say oh well it didn’t. My daughter lives in Elkmont, close to the Tennessee state line, at least she has gotten a couple of pretty snows this year I think they had about three inches this morning.
When the weather guys and gals are forecasting weather events or predicting the weather events it is a forecast or a prediction. I don’t understand why everyone gets so up in the air. We can’t change the weather , of which I am thankful or things would really be mess, the Good Lord, knew that so he didn’t give us that choice.
Lets give them the benefit of the doubt and their training to study all the models, I for one don’t have a clue as to how they get as close as they do on the weather predictions and forecasts.
I enjoy the anticipation and waiting just to see what happens, might as well relax and Whatever Will Be Will Be
February 8th, 2010 at 3:15 pm
The lastest nam has the system developing stronger back to the west with heavier precip in Oklahoma.. It only goes out to 84 hrs. through so we won’t nothing about us in Alabama until about 11 oclock tommorrow. By the way it has the low slightly more north…
February 8th, 2010 at 4:04 pm
hey JCP…where did u get that link? Thanks