Rain Late Tonight; Snow Flakes Tomorrow?
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RIGHT NOW: What a contrast across our state. As I was driving in to the ABC 33/40 studio this afternoon, I noticed the outside temperature had reached 50 degrees on the car thermometer. Sure feels better than the raw cold conditions over the weekend around here. But, just to the north, temperatures are only in the mid to upper 30s over extreme North Alabama, where some snow is still on the ground from a morning winter weather event that caught most up in the Tennessee Valley by surprise.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Most of Alabama will deal with a cold rain late tonight and tomorrow. Rain continues over the far northern part of the state this afternoon, but down this way (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden), most of the rain will come from about 12:00 midnight tonight through 12:00 noon tomorrow. The NAM is printing 0.69″ for Birmingham; we figure most spots will get 1/2 to 1 inch, with isolated heavier totals.
SNOW FLAKES? As the rain begins to taper off, much colder air will be pulled down into North Alabama tomorrow afternoon, with temperatures falling into the 30s. Most models suggest there will be sufficient moisture for a little light snow or snow flurries on the back side of the departing storm, and we will mention that in our forecast. They shouldn’t pose any problems with temperatures above freezing, but we will watch the situation since this system has not played nicely with forecasters to the north of here. They usually offer one or two more surprises before they leave, you know.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: These two days will be cold and dry, with highs in the low to mid 40s. The GFS MOS guidance seems to warm considering the snow cover just north of here.
SNOW DAY FRIDAY? Confidence in some snow here Friday is very good, but how much is the big question, and something we really won’t be able to answer until tomorrow’s system gets out of here. Like football coaches and their games, we like to take storm systems one at a time. Having said that…
Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for the complete graphic set that goes with this discussion… but critical thickness values are well down into South Alabama during the day Friday, so there is little doubt the atmosphere will support all snow for North and Central Alabama Friday. The placement of the surface low and moisture field puts us on the northern periphery of the system, meaning mostly light amounts (an inch or so). The better snow could be in places like Montgomery, Auburn, Troy, Ozark, and Eufaula if the latest model runs are correct, but this is nothing but speculation right now. I think there is an excellent chance of accumulating snow for some part of Alabama Friday, and for now the most likely sweet spot will be somewhere south of I-20 and north of U.S. 84. Let’s hold off until Wednesday before we get too specific, however.
COLD WEEKEND: Saturday and Sunday look cold and dry, with highs only around 40 degrees. We all know how poorly the GFS MOS numbers were this past weekend; and most likely they are clueless this weekend as well.
LONG TERM/VOODOO LAND: The Arctic Oscillation remains strongly negative for the next two weeks, so cold and unsettled weather will likely continue. Maybe even more winter weather fun and games.
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February 8th, 2010 at 3:35 pm
We missed another one here again this morning. We have had about a half of inch of snow only this year, but hoping we get our chance of a major one soon. Either too far north, too far south, not enough moisture, or not cold enough. One day all the factors will be there and it’s gonna be a whopper of a snowstorm.
February 8th, 2010 at 3:46 pm
I like the uncertainty in the forecast.
February 8th, 2010 at 4:08 pm
Blake…at least you had a little!! There has been nary a flake since we had a dusting way back on December the 4th. I am beginning to lose hope for this year. Everytime it’s cold enough for snow here in the Ham the low is too far south and when the weather warms a little then we get plain ole rain!! Law of averages say we are due!!!!! Let it SNOW
February 8th, 2010 at 4:23 pm
Interesting forecast to say the least. I know everyone probably already looks at this but here is a link to the CPC hazards page: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php I look at this on a regular basis and they are normally pretty accurate. They also provide a detailed discussion with their reasoning. I hope linking this is OK since I rarely post. I know most external links are frowned upon but since this is from CPC I hope it is OK.
February 8th, 2010 at 4:32 pm
*** Confidence is increasing! NWS thinks it will trend northward!
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE
IS GOING TO BE A STORM DEVELOPING…BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE NOT
AGREED UPON. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STRUGGLING WITH THE 500 MB
FORECAST…AND I SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS A
SLOWER…STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED BY THE 12Z GFS. THROUGH YEARS OF WATCHING THE GFS I HAVE
NOTED A BIAS TOWARDS FLATTER AND WEAKER SOLUTIONS IN THE MODEL.
THROUGH COORDINATION…HPC NOTED THAT MOST OF THE SYSTEMS THIS
WINTER HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME. ALSO A
LOOK AT THE EXPERIENTIAL FIM MODEL SHOWS A MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH
WITH A SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID…POPS WERE RAISED TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF. ALSO IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN HALF COULD HAVE A SHOT AT
ALL SNOW WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED ONCE AGAIN TODAY…BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF TRYING TO
DETERMINE ACCUMULATIONS. THE STORM IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY…AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A
REAL POSSIBILITY. TO SUMMARIZE THE TIMING…PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS BEFORE EXPANDING TO COVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA ON
FRIDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN AREAS BY
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
February 8th, 2010 at 4:38 pm
What are the chances of any travel issues between Birmingham and Knoxville Saturday morning? We are headed to Gatlinburg for the weekend and do not want to spend the night on the interstate. Been there, done that, and have the fleece sweater to show for it. We traveled in light snow at the end of December 2000 for New Years and got iced in on I-75 just south of Athens, Tn. My son was 2 months old and we had not water nor heat to make a bottle. The Lord smiled on us that night, he slept through the entire night. Never want to do that again.
February 8th, 2010 at 4:43 pm
hey tyler, how does it look for lee county? what do we need to pay attention to? thanks
February 8th, 2010 at 4:47 pm
adam: I think you will need to watch your temperature once again. Right now it looks like you may be in a mix. Adam it will change again though. By Wednesday night confidence will be about 80%. By Thursday morning there will more than likely an accumulation map and also an advisory/ warning map that will be 85% accurate.
February 8th, 2010 at 4:52 pm
What are the chances of any travel issues between Birmingham and Knoxville Saturday morning? We are headed to Gatlinburg for the weekend and do not want to spend the night on the interstate. Been there, done that, and have the fleece sweater to show for it. We traveled in light snow at the end of December 2000 for New Years and got iced in on I-75 just south of Athens, Tn. Never want to do that again.
February 8th, 2010 at 4:53 pm
Sorry for the duplicate post. It wasn’t showing a second ago.
February 8th, 2010 at 4:56 pm
This is from the Climate Prediction Center :
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE A BIG WEATHERMAKER FOR THE SOUTH. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON THURSDAY IN CONNECTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR FLORIDA BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH HEAVY RAIN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A WIDE SWATH OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH FROM TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, AND PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND SOUTH CAROLINA. AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE WELL OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
February 8th, 2010 at 5:30 pm
I can’t believe Montgomery is mentioned in the same sentence with sweet spot ..that is a first
I am reporting for snow watch duty 
February 8th, 2010 at 5:33 pm
Take a look at this time lasp shot of 12″ of snow falling.
http://i.imgur.com/jpYU3.gif
February 8th, 2010 at 5:43 pm
That time lapse thing was so cool! My daughter and I watched it several times.
February 8th, 2010 at 5:48 pm
You know, it only says one hour of precip for Friday. The models must not be showing very much moisture. How much snow could fall in an hour? It would have to be near blizzard conditions to get a dusting.
February 8th, 2010 at 6:52 pm
anyone know what this is????
EXPERIENTIAL FIM MODEL
February 8th, 2010 at 7:00 pm
Once again everyone…take a deep breath! The models are doing no better with the Friday system than they did today. Florence and parts of Lauderdale County got 4″ inches plus (6 inches in Anderson) and its was totally missed by all the models…right up to the event’s actual occurence!
February 8th, 2010 at 9:29 pm
Last night I posted two different forecasts for different areas one just inside the ALA stateline covered by Bham NWS the other one no more that 10 miles east on I-20 just inside the GA stateline handled by Peachree City NWS. Big difference last night. Here again are the forecast for the two different areas. At least Peachtree City doesn’t have Sunny, Hi of 53 for Friday like they did last night. Check the CURRENT forecasts for these two areas no more that 10 miles apart.
1.Bham NWS forecast for Friday for the area just inside the ALA stateline:
Friday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
2.Peachtree City NWS forecast for the area just inside the GA stateline:
Friday: A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
If I lived in that area I’d be a bit confused. At least this time they are both calling for some type of winter weather.
February 8th, 2010 at 9:38 pm
snow
February 8th, 2010 at 9:57 pm
US 80 Corridor
February 8th, 2010 at 9:59 pm
From NWS Peachtree:
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC SNOW THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY
THIS WEEK AS A AN AREA LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF AND SPREADS AMPLE MOISTURE OVER A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL JUST MENTION RAIN OR
SNOW FOR NOW FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GA AS CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT
IS NOT THAT HIGH. OTHERWISE…RECOMMEND ALL INTEREST IN NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST FOR CONTINUED FINE
TUNING OF THIS POTENTIAL WINTRY THREAT.
February 8th, 2010 at 10:05 pm
00z GFS is a REAL bummer for the snow on Friday…ALL the moisture is gone!
February 8th, 2010 at 10:09 pm
Yeah guys I wouldnt get my hopes up on this one. Models are trending the low further south each run. Dothan may get some snow showers.
February 8th, 2010 at 10:26 pm
Kevin: Looks like, as with most of the time, Peachtree NWS is taking their conservative approach. In what you have posted, which I already had read myself, they mention the possibility of snow on Friday but keep their forecast package with a 20%chance of a rain/snow mix as far north as Blairsville. Bham NWS has already pulled the snow gun out and fired a shot. Not over here yet. One office will be right, the other wrong or BOTH will come together and be right or wrong.
You have to admit at this point that the forecast for two areas approx 10 miles apart handled by two different offices is quite INTERESTING!
February 8th, 2010 at 10:28 pm
I think the 00z just shows how much the GFS is struggling with the placement. A few hundred miles difference in just in the last few runs. Who knows????
February 8th, 2010 at 10:40 pm
Hey Guys: FYI-This run of the GFS is almost an “exact” carbon copy of Saturday Nights 00ZGFS run. It had the Low also coming close to the Castro Bros. in Cuba. The one last night had it going across South Fla. What are the latest runs of OTHER models showing.
February 8th, 2010 at 11:13 pm
Demopolis 4″…Selma 4″…Montgomery 3″…Clanton 5″…Alexander City 6″…Roanoke 7″…Tusc/Bham/Anniston 1-2″…Greenville/Troy/Eufaula 2-3″
February 8th, 2010 at 11:30 pm
Rain
February 8th, 2010 at 11:31 pm
Interesting to note that the NAM and GFS at 84 hours diverge quite a bit. It sure seems as if the models are having a difficult time understanding what will take place, although the tendency of the GFS to drift the low to Cuba is disconcerting or laughable depending on how you view it. For at least the next 12-24 hours, I will hold on to hope that the meteorologist out of the Birmingham office is correct in his view that the GFS is showing a southern bias. By tomorrow evening the picture should be a lot clearer
February 8th, 2010 at 11:31 pm
Now, there is a reason I don’t do weather and it’s because I don’t have the training these guys do, but I’ve noticed that the cold air seems to always push the rain/moisture south, so I really don’t see us getting any kind of significant snowfall.
While I would take half (I’m not greedy) of what DC got this past weekend, and while I’m sure someone up there would love for me to have half the snow they got last weekend, I just don’t see it “happening” for us. It’s sad but I hate to see everyone get their hopes up like I use to and then be heartbroken when nothing happens.
Let’s face it, my child will move out of the house and go to college in a year and a half without every really seeing a good snow here. She’s never seen a tree bent over with ice, she’s never really gotten to experience the beautiful silence of a heavy snow cover first thing in the morning. She’s never built a snowman over 1 1/2 feet tall. It’s sad, but it’s the south. *sigh*
I guess it’s just gotta be one of those I believe it when I see it type things.
February 8th, 2010 at 11:36 pm
what in the world is up with the latest runs ? snow way south. hway 80 south. what do you all think. keeps going south with themodels.
February 8th, 2010 at 11:48 pm
snow
February 9th, 2010 at 12:02 am
It will snow A LOT and Heavy in north al.with htis one. sorry doubters lol
February 9th, 2010 at 1:02 am
Does Gadsden have a prayer?
February 9th, 2010 at 1:05 am
The 0z Euro trended north from the 12z models and was a good bit north than the 0z gfs.. Here is the qpf totals for this.. THis might be a trend back to a wetter system with the low futher north..
0Z Huntsville 0.10″ vs. 0.02″ 12Z
0Z BHM 0.20″ vs. 0.08″ 12Z
February 9th, 2010 at 1:06 am
i believe with recent model data even regarding the nws i believ james and company are correct with their forecast. i do believe though that the models are leaning more and more with a southward turn of the low, but when viewing other forecasting companies ie, accuweather.com they believe ita a blizzard how laughable is that
February 9th, 2010 at 1:08 am
how many inches is that? patrick
February 9th, 2010 at 1:13 am
Well it was 1 inch on the 12z models for birmingham now it has it at 2 inch was a 10:1 snow ration might be closer to a 3 inch snow with colder air in place… Huntsville was at a trace of snow now it is 1 inch but using a higher snow ratio it would probably be 2 inches.. It is defintely alot better than the wacky gfs..
February 9th, 2010 at 3:16 am
Hello everyone!!
What a winter so far,huh?? the entire nation has seen it all this season.
I don’t post here often, but I have watched james spann since he was on wvtm and listened to JB’s voice on the wx radio hanging onto his every word during severe weather. I want to thank both of them for there effort put into forecasting the weather and the other behind the scenes people to put it all on air.
About the up coming snow event it’s hard to disagree with NWS or the CPC, but on the other hand I trust what Spann says also. IMO,and everyone has one, the low will track more northward than the models indicate as of now and will be wetter also, thats just based on other gulf lows this season and we’ve had ton of those to look back on,lol. So here’s hoping for snow every where in the state and yes, I know that’s not going to probably happen. Snow seems to bring the kid out of all us no matter what age we are. So let it snow!!!