Rain Late Tonight; Snow Flakes Tomorrow?

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RIGHT NOW: What a contrast across our state. As I was driving in to the ABC 33/40 studio this afternoon, I noticed the outside temperature had reached 50 degrees on the car thermometer. Sure feels better than the raw cold conditions over the weekend around here. But, just to the north, temperatures are only in the mid to upper 30s over extreme North Alabama, where some snow is still on the ground from a morning winter weather event that caught most up in the Tennessee Valley by surprise.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Most of Alabama will deal with a cold rain late tonight and tomorrow. Rain continues over the far northern part of the state this afternoon, but down this way (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden), most of the rain will come from about 12:00 midnight tonight through 12:00 noon tomorrow. The NAM is printing 0.69″ for Birmingham; we figure most spots will get 1/2 to 1 inch, with isolated heavier totals.

SNOW FLAKES? As the rain begins to taper off, much colder air will be pulled down into North Alabama tomorrow afternoon, with temperatures falling into the 30s. Most models suggest there will be sufficient moisture for a little light snow or snow flurries on the back side of the departing storm, and we will mention that in our forecast. They shouldn’t pose any problems with temperatures above freezing, but we will watch the situation since this system has not played nicely with forecasters to the north of here. They usually offer one or two more surprises before they leave, you know.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: These two days will be cold and dry, with highs in the low to mid 40s. The GFS MOS guidance seems to warm considering the snow cover just north of here.

SNOW DAY FRIDAY? Confidence in some snow here Friday is very good, but how much is the big question, and something we really won’t be able to answer until tomorrow’s system gets out of here. Like football coaches and their games, we like to take storm systems one at a time. Having said that…

Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for the complete graphic set that goes with this discussion… but critical thickness values are well down into South Alabama during the day Friday, so there is little doubt the atmosphere will support all snow for North and Central Alabama Friday. The placement of the surface low and moisture field puts us on the northern periphery of the system, meaning mostly light amounts (an inch or so). The better snow could be in places like Montgomery, Auburn, Troy, Ozark, and Eufaula if the latest model runs are correct, but this is nothing but speculation right now. I think there is an excellent chance of accumulating snow for some part of Alabama Friday, and for now the most likely sweet spot will be somewhere south of I-20 and north of U.S. 84. Let’s hold off until Wednesday before we get too specific, however.

COLD WEEKEND: Saturday and Sunday look cold and dry, with highs only around 40 degrees. We all know how poorly the GFS MOS numbers were this past weekend; and most likely they are clueless this weekend as well.

LONG TERM/VOODOO LAND: The Arctic Oscillation remains strongly negative for the next two weeks, so cold and unsettled weather will likely continue. Maybe even more winter weather fun and games.

LIVE CHAT: We are now offering a real time chat here on the blog… open blog comments will stay in place, of course, but this will allow a more immediate method of communication for weather geeks. We do have moderators posted over there, so be sure and play nice. Members of our weather team will be there from time to time to answer questions; we will post those times we are available here on the blog.

STORM ALERT 2010 IS COMING TO WALKER COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT: Our annual severe weather rolls along; our next stop will be on Thursday February 11 at Bevill State Community College in Sumiton. You can meet the ABC 33/40 Weather team, see some amazing Alabama weather stories, learn how to keep your family safe this tornado season, and win some cool stuff. The show begins at 7:00; be sure and get there early to get a good seat. See the entire tour schedule here!

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will have tonight’s new episode posted by 11:00 p.m.

I had a great time today visiting with the 1st graders at South Shades Crest Elementary in Hoover; be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

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