Sharply Colder This Afternoon
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MESSY MORNING: Rain is falling early this morning across Alabama, but it is already ending over the western part of the state, and it looks like the bulk of the rain will be completely out of the state by mid-morning. And, as the rain moves out, much colder air moves in. Temperatures will go the wrong way today; after readings in the 40s this morning we expect to drop into the 30s this afternoon with a brisk north wind. There could be enough moisture left over this afternoon for a few scattered snow flurries in the cold air.
TOMORROW/THURSDAY: These days will be dry and cold. Clouds could linger into the day tomorrow, as we all know the clearing can be much slower than models advertise in this pattern. Clouds will begin to increase Thursday ahead of the next storm system.
SNOW DAY FRIDAY? There is always great weeping and gnashing of teeth ahead of any winter weather possibility in Alabama; but there is no need to get really worked up about any specific solution on Friday until we get today’s system of out here. Say it with me… “One storm at a time”! We will be able to get down to the nitty gritty details tonight and tomorrow. But for now…
Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see all global models continue the idea of the deepest moisture on Friday over South Alabama, with only potential for light snow up this way. The NAM and the GFS are the driest, the GEM shows the most moisture up this way. For now I think the best course of action is to simply mention a chance of mostly light snow Friday, with the best accumulation potential down toward the U.S. 80 corridor (Demopolis, Selma, Montgomery, Opelika). But, this most likely will change as we get closer to Friday. Climatologically speaking, the GFS and the NAM low position doesn’t make sense; there would very well be an adjustment northward in coming days. We will see.
COLD WEEKEND: Saturday will be dry and cold, and the 06Z GFS brings down a strong impulse on the back side of the upper trough Sunday, which could squeeze out a few flurries, followed by some really cold air Monday. If you take the thickness values at face value, we will be below freezing all day Monday. We won’t go that far for now, but will watch for trends. One way or another temperatures will remain below average for the foreseeable future as the strongly Arctic Oscillation takes over.
VOODOO LAND: More winter weather fun and games show up in coming weeks in this cold/unsettled pattern; see the Weather Xtreme video for details. The cold pattern should lessen by the time we get to March.
STORM ALERT 2010 IS COMING TO WALKER COUNTY THURSDAY: Our annual severe weather rolls along; our next stop will be on Thursday at Bevill State Community College in Sumiton. You can meet the ABC 33/40 Weather team, see some amazing Alabama weather stories, learn how to keep your family safe this tornado season, and win some cool stuff. The show begins at 7:00; be sure and get there early to get a good seat. See the entire tour schedule here!
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I am headed down to Tuscaloosa this morning; I will be speaking at Rock Quarry Elementary school. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
February 9th, 2010 at 6:47 am
Good Morning everyone, hope you slept well knowing those of us out there helping to protect you were on the job. The rain played a part in a few wrecks in the Bham area this morning, no serious injuries reported that I know of. The wind was enough to set off a few alarms.
IF and only IF it snows Friday, I would really like it to be Friday after 7am so I can be safe and warm in my bed, and not stuck in the dungeon unable to leave work.
Hope everyone has a great day, and I’ll be sleeping so try to be quiet today.
Take care and stay safe…
Dave
February 9th, 2010 at 6:57 am
Dave I work for Homewood Police and I know what you mean thanks for the hard work you do and to the rest of the police and firemen.
February 9th, 2010 at 7:29 am
The GFS just doesn’t make sense! I’ve never seen a LP head to Cuba…..
February 9th, 2010 at 7:29 am
Looks as if the snow is going south on us. This winter we have had snow in Central Flordia, New Orleans, South Texas, Tennessee, Far North Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia….but Central Alabama seems to be a barren place when it comes to snow…..May be one day that will change,but I doubt it. If we can’t have snow then…….Bring on Spring!!!
February 9th, 2010 at 7:33 am
jeff…i agree this the track of the low seems way OFF.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html
February 9th, 2010 at 7:34 am
Does anyone have a clue what add-on is used to view these videos? Mine quit working a few weeks ago and now I just have a small pic in the top left corner. Cant figure out how to fix it!!
February 9th, 2010 at 7:44 am
April, try reinstalling your Flash player.
February 9th, 2010 at 7:44 am
it only heads to cuba, when there is a chance of snow for bham..lol!
February 9th, 2010 at 7:47 am
i just hope these models flip, like they usually do. By the way the NAM is running
February 9th, 2010 at 7:49 am
snow
February 9th, 2010 at 8:01 am
Bust as usual. But as of this morning, NWS Jackson is saying heavy snow for south ms, 2-4 inches in hwy 84 corridor.
February 9th, 2010 at 8:03 am
I dont think it is a bust, just really crazy that the low would jog down to cuba…? nobody would predict that, that is why i think the models will change to more north.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html
February 9th, 2010 at 8:10 am
we will have at least 8 inches in the sylacauga area. look at the latest model runs. we may have a march 03 storm on our hands. it looks to me like we might have some thunder snow. wow that was awesome in 93. i would love for my kids to see that. i know you haters will come out swinging but i’m ready. i’m taking all bets. oops i might not should say that bob and his gang of troopers might raid my home. we should be ashamed of our guvner. he’s a country hick from ashland and is going to court soon himself cause he has his property fence on someone elses property and refuses to move it. he’s a crook. he told the 94 year old lady that he can take it cause he’s the governor. before you haters get going i voted for him every time he’s run. i wish i knew the real riley before. he’s a looser who has to take indian money. oh well LET IT SNOW AND LET US VOTE.
February 9th, 2010 at 8:18 am
U will not have 8 inches trust me. heaviest snow will b around montgomery 4 inches. clanton 3 inches mont 2 inches bham 1 inch sylacauga 3 inches. Heaviest precip will be south. I hope it doesn’t start till friday afternoon. I’m flying home to michigan early sat. hometown is forcasting up to 13 inches of snow by tomorrow night.
February 9th, 2010 at 8:19 am
sorry meant flying home 0645 friday
February 9th, 2010 at 8:30 am
heaviest snow ill be along highway 80.
February 9th, 2010 at 8:30 am
we need this thing to phase, and move north…for everyone to get a pretty good snow
February 9th, 2010 at 8:31 am
thanls Andy, that was the problem. I had tried shockwave and java but not flash!!
February 9th, 2010 at 8:35 am
With this latest nam run….anyone think a surprise inch of snow may fall in North Alabama this afternoon?
February 9th, 2010 at 8:35 am
it all goes back to what ive said several times here on this blog..watch the trends..watch what things have done all winter…if you can remember we had a similar situation on the board in december and they were saying snow for the hwy 80 corridor cause the low was tracking way south in the gulf…well what happened..the low pressure skirted the gulf coast waa kicked in and bham had a dusting and north of hwy 278 about an inch…with that being said i say from the i-20 corridor north is where the snow will be and the sweet spot of up to 3 inches will be between the hwy 278 corridor and i 20…i know i know the haters and troll will be after me now but look at the trends…i hope south alabama does get it cause im tired of cold and rainy days bring on spring…have a great day….God Bless
February 9th, 2010 at 8:36 am
according to radar, no. But everyone knows, that it is possible with southern snow chances
February 9th, 2010 at 8:36 am
“Climatologically speaking, the GFS and the NAM low position doesn’t make sense; there would very well be an adjustment northward in coming days.”
James has finally said my thoughts from the beginning. Remember back to the January 7 snow when Central Alabama was to get the majority of the snow and the low tracked northward giving North Alabama the heaviest snow. These lows have been projected to follow along or just south of the coast and they end up tracking further inland. My prediction is the greatest snow potential on the North end from Columbus, MS -> Warrior -> Gadsden and on the south from Meridian, MS -> Clanton -> Roanoke.
This could change but I’m sticking with it.
February 9th, 2010 at 8:37 am
rain
February 9th, 2010 at 8:37 am
all i am saying, is if this thing does turn more northward, it would be a BIG snow for alabama. Which like northal said, this winter supports a north turn
February 9th, 2010 at 8:47 am
one thing to watch for in this pattern is if it does take a northward turn then might have to watch for freezing rain and sleet somewhere between montgomery and clanton….about a 3 hr window there…not saying its going to happen or turn more north just a thought
February 9th, 2010 at 8:50 am
at 78hr on the NAM, already trending more north, i think this thing run by run will trend more north
February 9th, 2010 at 8:55 am
Nam is finished and low is a little more north but still keeps north and central alabama in a few flakes/flurries and the heavy precip near the coast. Hopefully the more north trend will continue. We are still 4 days away from the event
February 9th, 2010 at 8:55 am
Man, the GFS jogged this thing 100 miles to the south from one run to the other. Never seen a low that far south that wasn’t a tropical system. This can’t be the correct solution.
February 9th, 2010 at 8:56 am
LOL at all the meteorologist on here throwing out predictions. A few of you guys should have learned your lesson from Jan. Wait until Wed night, you only disappoint people.
February 9th, 2010 at 8:57 am
its funny people always say what they want to happen. highway 80 north to clanton will get the heaviest snow. north bama will miss out with just flurries.
February 9th, 2010 at 9:02 am
where does the latest nam have the heaviest snow ? i still say montgomery to clanton will be the sweet spot
February 9th, 2010 at 9:02 am
It truly is amazing how we have been bypassed all winter, we have had a measly inch here in Atlanta, now yesterday all of the mets were really hyped up on this thing and it has just fallen apart. Bring on the suntan lotion…
February 9th, 2010 at 9:05 am
John it really isnt wat people want…i will be the first to say im ready for warm weather i have to work outside if its raining, snowing, etc… so if it stays over south ala thats fine with me..i just said look what its done all winter and the trends
February 9th, 2010 at 9:06 am
The heaviest snow will be in Washington, and a few inches in Boston – that would the north! We live in the south. I love snow, but crying wolf goes on way too much these days! I talked to some school officials who said because of what happened last month they will never again listen to local folks who are snow lovers!
February 9th, 2010 at 9:13 am
THE LATEST NAM IS SHOWING VERY HEAVY SNOW FOR MOBILE, GULF SHORES, AND THE FL PANHANDLE. WE’RE TALKING LIKE OVER A FOOT.
February 9th, 2010 at 9:15 am
See I’m not kidding:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_sl8_084l.gif
February 9th, 2010 at 9:16 am
It’s so funny to read all these doubters predictions. They need to look at past model trends. Hope they’re all hungry come fri. nite cause thats a whole lot of crow to eat.lol Bring on the snow!
February 9th, 2010 at 9:21 am
I say NO SNOW from Clanton North.
February 9th, 2010 at 9:22 am
I hear ya northal! The nam is so far off is hilarious. Its too many days away for any of it to be set in stone. Case in point-yesterday morning in florence and huntsville! NOBODY saw that comin. lol
February 9th, 2010 at 9:24 am
A mix from montgomery south.An inch in clanton.
February 9th, 2010 at 9:29 am
Here in North/Central TX where I live the NWS forecast is for 1-3 inches of snow for us on Thursday… hopefully some of that will ease over into central AL.
February 9th, 2010 at 9:39 am
gfs running
February 9th, 2010 at 9:43 am
I love snow but lets all be realist. It is not in the cards for Central Alabama… I wish it was the old days where we knew nothing and just were suprised when and if it arrives…
February 9th, 2010 at 9:46 am
For once, I hope those south trending runs are wrong. I have an event on Friday and I don’t want to have to cancel it for snow. Dang it. Why couldn’t this be happening on Saturday?
February 9th, 2010 at 9:50 am
Instead of making predictions, which at this point is just short of silly, why can’t we just take it as James said we should, “one storm at a time”? By the way, I LOVE SNOW TOO!
February 9th, 2010 at 9:54 am
Im gonna talk to Jesus about it later, we will see what he can do.
February 9th, 2010 at 9:57 am
For Johnp: I do hope these school officials that you speak of, listen to someone if there’s a winter weather threat. I assume they would not let a schoolbus go out in icy type roads and risk loosing a bus load of kids!
When I was in high school, LONG LONG AGO, a friend of mine who sat next to me all through high school was the son of the city’s school system Superintendent.
He made the schools open or closed calls. The city had 8 high schools plus a significant number of lower grade schools. This was in Indiana so the schools were never closed on a 1″ snowfall. Usually it took about 4″in to close schools. The moral of this story, he didn’t want small snows because he took a lot of flack from the other kids when his Dad didn’t close the schools down. I know because sometime I was collateral damage because they all knew who my friend was and knew who sat next to him, Me!
February 9th, 2010 at 10:02 am
NWS BHAM DISCUSSION:
THE BEST CHANGE OF SNOW WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW PASSES
PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURPRISED TO SEE ALL
MODELS COME IN WITH A DRIER SOLUTION FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA…AS
THERE IS USUALLY ONE OUTLIER. THE NAM MODEL IS STILL SLOWER AND
KEEPS THE 1000-850MB LAYER RELATIVELY DRY…EVEN ON FRIDAY. THE
FORECAST WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD ON FRIDAY…BUT STILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES…WITH LIKELY POPS
FROM MONTGOMERY SOUTHWARD. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THERMAL PROFILES. THE NAM IS SHOWING MUCH WARMER LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES…AND PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
COLUMN OF AIR TO COOL BELOW FREEZING…SO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND
SNOW WAS INCLUDED IN THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS. THE GOOD NEWS ABOUT
LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S BY 18Z FRIDAY…AND KEEP THE
ROADS JUST WET. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST…SNOWFALL TOTALS LESS
THAN ONE-HALF INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 AND ONE-HALF TO ONE
INCH SOUTH OF I-20. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS THE PAST
FEW DAYS I WOULD NOT BE ALL THAT SURPRISED TO SEE MODELS TREND
BACK TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION AGAIN.
February 9th, 2010 at 10:04 am
after seeing the 12z gfs…it is an OUTLIER, Low on CUBA not near it, on it!!!!
February 9th, 2010 at 10:10 am
hope its snows for u all
February 9th, 2010 at 10:13 am
not to promote other web sites but accuweather.com is sticking with snow for central alabama!
February 9th, 2010 at 10:13 am
Arctic Air = gulf lows pushed south. Happens every time. Any one seen the Canadian or Euro? What are they saying with the low?
February 9th, 2010 at 10:15 am
Ruth, has accuweather ever been accurate in these snow events? Just wondering.
February 9th, 2010 at 10:17 am
the NAM is slowly, i mean slowly, moving north….gfs is way off at the moment, i think James will mention the gfs as an outlier, at this time
February 9th, 2010 at 10:29 am
Might as well face it, the runs are looking bone dry. Another epic forecast failure.
February 9th, 2010 at 10:32 am
even the BHAM NEWS has snow on the FRONT PAGE!!!
February 9th, 2010 at 10:34 am
sorry it is in the Local section…last night the local stations got everyone excited
February 9th, 2010 at 10:34 am
More like model failure than forecast failure. These models do not do a good job forecasting this stuff.
February 9th, 2010 at 10:36 am
Hope it snows on Fidel Castro..
February 9th, 2010 at 10:38 am
Everyone needs to wait on their snow predictions unil at least Thursday morning. Models will change and change and change until the day it happens.
February 9th, 2010 at 10:40 am
Why doesn’t anyone think its possible that the push of cold air will shunt the moisture too far south and keep the low far out over the gulf? Time to take off the snow colored glasses and accept Birmingham reality. Maybe there are tickets to DC available for those who want snow.
Back to work.
February 9th, 2010 at 10:41 am
Accuweather usually in line with 3340/
February 9th, 2010 at 10:41 am
lol…brent
February 9th, 2010 at 10:43 am
Agreed these models will change and flip flop. But isn’t there some consistency with the southern track?
February 9th, 2010 at 10:44 am
you right KAD…i think the NAM, EURO, CAN…is in pretty good agreement
February 9th, 2010 at 10:45 am
i really hope is snows for you all. i still think mont to clanton will get the most
February 9th, 2010 at 10:50 am
accuweather has Birmingham sunny and 47 on Friday????? Where are they getting that forecast?
February 9th, 2010 at 10:50 am
You know I always am a 33/40 weather person, but I sure wish we could have some pretty snow over here in Jacksonville. I also know that you can’t make the snow go where we want it. Thanks for all you do!
February 9th, 2010 at 10:53 am
Rob -what you posted for mobile and south was not necessarily true. The 0 line is north of mobile: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_084l.gif
And the thickness line to support snow is in northern AL..http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_slp_084l.gif
February 9th, 2010 at 10:57 am
“The last couple of runs of our two main American computer models have trended farther south with the area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. This means two things – colder and drier. This is a good news/bad news situation for those looking for snow. The colder air is obviously a plus, but lack of moisture could be an issue.”
February 9th, 2010 at 11:01 am
Yogi Berra just called and said “Wayne, It’s deja vu all over again”. Seems like, no it is like, a number of discussions this blog has been having since before Christmas. I’m not making any calls just watching like everyone else to see what happens. I sure don’t get excited about it like I use too.
As all the good folks from around the world were meeting in Copenhagen,Denmark last month on Climate Change the following should have happened. Somebody should have stood up and said, “You know maybe we should work on getting current scientific weather models that have trouble resolving what will happen in three to four days from now instead focusing on what’s going to happen 20 to 30 years from now”!!!
February 9th, 2010 at 11:04 am
Seems like I remember James on the Rick and Bubba Show one day saying that February was going to be wet and cold. I think you got that one right James.
February 9th, 2010 at 11:05 am
Hey Brent Post#59: Don’t forget Raul Castro. He’s supposed to be running things now (lol).
February 9th, 2010 at 11:07 am
Anyone seen the 12z Canadian that just came out? Blizzard over Georgia, North and South Carolina. Wow! It has trended north. Got good snow for much of Alabama. Low goes from New Orleans to big bend in Florida then up the east coast.
February 9th, 2010 at 11:10 am
rich…link
February 9th, 2010 at 11:10 am
can you post the link to the Canadian?
February 9th, 2010 at 11:16 am
Here you go.
12z Canadian is much further north and stronger than the 0z yesterday and today.
12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_084.jpg
February 9th, 2010 at 11:17 am
12z CAN Link:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_084.jpg
February 9th, 2010 at 11:17 am
i think this is it:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_084.jpg
February 9th, 2010 at 11:17 am
My bad. Here it is..
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_084.jpg
February 9th, 2010 at 11:19 am
Blizzard for the east coast. This is the same 12z Canadian. Just 96 hrs out. Other runs took it out to sea without impacting east coast. Trending north.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_096.jpg
February 9th, 2010 at 11:23 am
looking better
February 9th, 2010 at 11:25 am
based on the latest canadian does it still have snow for montgomery selma and auburn ?
February 9th, 2010 at 11:25 am
how accurate has the canadian been this winter? which model should we lean on here? thanks
February 9th, 2010 at 11:26 am
hey rich how far south does the canadian have the snow getting ?
February 9th, 2010 at 11:32 am
what is up with gfs and nam. no snow
February 9th, 2010 at 11:32 am
aflac- don’t lean on any model. We won’t know till precip starts showing up on radar.
February 9th, 2010 at 11:33 am
good look on the canadian model…its been on and off all winter but sure looks good for all of alabama…another thing to look at is the low pressure centers that has developed in the nw gulf has also spread more moisture into all of al,ms,and ga than had been forcasted…
February 9th, 2010 at 11:34 am
What kind of snowfall amounts is it showing for central al now?? Hope this sticks!
February 9th, 2010 at 11:34 am
Anyone got a link to the Euro? What’s it saying?
February 9th, 2010 at 11:35 am
the only down side to a very strong low in the northern gulf is the dreaded W.A.A (warm air avection) that has played alot into these storms this year
February 9th, 2010 at 11:37 am
Hoping for one good snow this winter in Birmingham. It seems like we are always in the sweet spot for no snow.
It’s amazing how it’s either too dry or the low is too far south. How is it that it seems like there’s always moisture in Mississippi but never in Alabama?
How is it that it’s too dry to snow here but there’s always plenty of moisture for snow in Tennessee and we’re closer to the dang source of moisture.
It’s crazy…
February 9th, 2010 at 11:37 am
Warm air avection can definetly come into play. I think this would be more of a problem for the southern part of the state. All the models have trended cold no matter what they say with the precip. Time will tell.
February 9th, 2010 at 11:38 am
The canadian model makes much more sense than the GFS. I’ve never seen a low go from Texas to Cuba. That makes no sense. The canadian alone has 3 to 4 inches for Tuscaloosa. 9 to 10 inches along HWY 80. Demopolis to Selma. More than a foot just south of there towards Thomasville and Dothan. Maybe snow at the beach. This is just based off the Canadian. Not my prediction. Just telling what I see on that one run of the model. I wouldn’t be surpised to see the NAM and GFS trend north. Especially if the EURO trends north this afternoon/.
February 9th, 2010 at 11:40 am
couldn’t have said it better myself, rich
February 9th, 2010 at 11:43 am
the cold air will be in place but warm air avection will down play the chances to the south…the moisture will be there but will the cold air be shunted more north with a strong low…i will stick to what i said earlier that waa kicks in and I-20 north to u s hwy 278 will be the sweet spot of 3-6 north of hwy 278 1-3 and clanton to mont. wintery mix possible freezing rain due to cold air in the lower levels
February 9th, 2010 at 11:45 am
David, you are quite right. Seems like we never have all the ingredients come together in Birmingham. Snow will literally hop over our area. I mean we went almost an entire decade without measurable snow. Even for Birmingham, that is unusual. You would think the law of averages would catch up to us soon.
February 9th, 2010 at 11:45 am
The canadian has a 998 mb low in the gulf! This would be a huge hit for south central Alabama. Amazing if it verifies.
February 9th, 2010 at 11:46 am
hey rich where do u think the sweet spot will be ? i still say montgomery to clanton. i honestly don’t think places south of montgomery will get snow . Just don’t see it.
February 9th, 2010 at 11:46 am
Hugh you are correct that is a very strong low in the gulf
February 9th, 2010 at 11:48 am
someone correct me if im wrong but wasnt the winter storm of 93 from a closed core upper low?
February 9th, 2010 at 11:48 am
998MB? Is that tropical storm kind of strength????
February 9th, 2010 at 11:50 am
Rich – what do you think for east central al?? Anniston area
February 9th, 2010 at 11:50 am
I don’t think 93 was a closed core low. I could be wrong however. I thought it was a low pressure forming on a frontal boundary, but I can’t remember.
February 9th, 2010 at 11:54 am
93 was a triple phaser!
February 9th, 2010 at 11:58 am
And that means….
February 9th, 2010 at 12:00 pm
remember we still have roughly 3-4 days left for this thing to unfold. I my opinion, i much rather have our chances moving north than a low being north on the models and going south…if that makes sense
February 9th, 2010 at 12:01 pm
Tbone i agree and it makes alot of sense to a senseless man like me..
February 9th, 2010 at 12:02 pm
Models most likely get a better grasp once the low actually forms, maybe around 48 hrs out or so.
February 9th, 2010 at 12:03 pm
John, I’ll be honest with you. I have no clue to what this thing will end up doing. The spread is all over the table. There will be a low in the gulf. How far north it goes will depend on our approaching shortwave. We’ll just have to see. There may not be a sweet spot. Winter weather is not very easy to understand or predict. Fun times ahead.
February 9th, 2010 at 12:05 pm
can we agree that the gfs is an outlier right now?? At least currently at this time
February 9th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
IMO the canadian and even the nam is much more climatologically correct-even if the storm doesnt produce any snow. I just dont understand how the GFS can take a low down to the tip of cuba- I mean this cold air is not the usual cold dense air that takes a storm and buries in in the gulf much less cuba. Would love to hear Dr. Tim’s analysis. bet he will post after the 12z runs are finished on gfa,euro, and can.
February 9th, 2010 at 12:08 pm
tbone i would go on board with you on this that the gfs is the outlier the nam and canadian are usually the best with the approaching storm and the gfs is better as it departs
February 9th, 2010 at 12:09 pm
GFS has to be an outlier tbone. Low going to Cuba? Don’t these things normally go up the east coast and form Noreasters?
February 9th, 2010 at 12:10 pm
the NWS guy out of Jackson, has an excellent read…he usually does
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JAN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
February 9th, 2010 at 12:10 pm
KAD most of the time they do make noreasters..i feel sorry for the washington dc area and boston..they just keep getting hammered
February 9th, 2010 at 12:11 pm
Ashley – it’s when the polar, artic, and subtropical jets all come together and phase – causing cyclogenesis. i.e. BIG STORM!
February 9th, 2010 at 12:17 pm
let it snow
February 9th, 2010 at 12:38 pm
ok…why does accuweather.com not even show anything for central alabama on thursday and friday? are they always slow?
February 9th, 2010 at 12:39 pm
I live in Evergreen (Conecuh County), and I will have to say that I’m just a little excited over the prospect of some decent snow in south Alabama. I’m not a weather expert by any means, so if anyone has any guesses, suggestions, predictions, etc. about what we might could expect in my area, I would love to hear them.
God bless-
February 9th, 2010 at 12:40 pm
Someone in Alabama will get 6 inches of snow on Friday…WHO? WHO KNOWS?
February 9th, 2010 at 12:41 pm
how does the Euro Look??
February 9th, 2010 at 12:44 pm
If the low is forecast to be 998mb, don’t you think it would bomb places a lot farther north than currently depicted???? Meaning BHAM and ATL???
February 9th, 2010 at 12:44 pm
GFS is a bust. Dry. I’m sure James is following a Euro/GFS mix and will announce this in the afternoon. Something big needs to change.
February 9th, 2010 at 12:47 pm
everything is right on track, and our thinking has not changed…best chance of snow is south alabama. that is what the james gang will say
February 9th, 2010 at 12:48 pm
Ok…One question….Why did Jason Simpson make the statement no problem on Fri on ths 6 am news today yet James states otherwise?
February 9th, 2010 at 12:49 pm
all i know is, this storm has potential…will it unfold, we don’t know…YET
February 9th, 2010 at 12:50 pm
because they are allowed to disagree. James has repeatedly defended Jason, as he is perfectly qualified to make his own, and sometimes better, forecast.
February 9th, 2010 at 12:52 pm
Do you guys not care for James? I think he is one of the best, everyone has their own theory though. Sometime in situations like this they are all conservative, sure was a different tune yesterday though. Even the ultra conservative NWS in Peachtree City said, “”this looks to be a classic southern snowstorm”".
February 9th, 2010 at 12:52 pm
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_072l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_078l.gif
any questions?
February 9th, 2010 at 12:55 pm
james is by far the best!!
February 9th, 2010 at 1:06 pm
James is the best met i have ever seen…and he had a partner that is on another station now that is in second to james…if he dont care for me saying his name it is mark prater….he was trained by the best and them two together in severe weather season on tv working together…priceless
February 9th, 2010 at 1:10 pm
Mike – sounds good for us then!
February 9th, 2010 at 1:14 pm
Ashley – this is not a triple phase setup – you’ll be lucky to see that again in your liftime.
February 9th, 2010 at 1:18 pm
does anyone have the link to the video of the blizzard of 93 coverage of james spann and dan satterfield
February 9th, 2010 at 1:18 pm
They are discounting the GFS big time.
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
826 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2010
VALID 12Z SAT FEB 13 2010 – 12Z TUE FEB 16 2010
…WINTER STORM FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST…
PRELIMINARY UPDATE…
USED THE 00Z/09 ECMWF FOR DAYS 3 AND 4 ACROSS THE NATION…WITH A
GRADUAL INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z/09 ECENS MEAN THEREAFTER TO
ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SYNOPTIC DETAIL INHERENT TO THAT TIME
RANGE. PREFER THE NORTHERN MOST GUIDANCE WITH THE WAVE CROSSING
THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD…WITH MANY WAVES IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM THIS WINTER ULTIMATELY TRACKING LESS SUPPRESSED
THAN THE MODELS INITIALLY PROG. THE MANUAL PROGS INDICATE SNOW
AND ICE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTH…EXCEPT FOR SOUTH
CAROLINA WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SPREAD ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST. CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE ORDER OF THE WEEK
FOR THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST…WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE ROCKIES. FRONTS ARE EXPECT TO COME INTO THE NORTHWEST
OFF THE PACIFIC…WITH LESS ENERGY DIVING INTO CALIFORNIA.
CISCO
February 9th, 2010 at 1:19 pm
Willmount – with your link to the map showing the blue line further north in Alabama mean the snow COULD come to the Birmingham area. Snow is pretty, but I would hate to take another snow day for nothing. Know what I mean????
February 9th, 2010 at 1:21 pm
check
February 9th, 2010 at 1:22 pm
it means we might see flurries and that’s all. but things do change. there is a reason why big weather channels are not playing this up right now.
February 9th, 2010 at 1:32 pm
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/
February 9th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
James says: “Nice visit today at Rock Quarry Elem. in Tuscaloosa. Now time to tackle a challenging forecast. Will have it on the blog by 3:00.”
February 9th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
Jess that image is a day old
February 9th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
Not a good sign when GFS 12Z run shuns precip further south. I give us a 10% chance of measurable snow in Bham at this point. And I love a good snow!
February 9th, 2010 at 1:39 pm
Waiting on update. Just thought people might want to bookmark.
February 9th, 2010 at 1:39 pm
HPC is ignoring the GFS/NAM and going with the UKMET/Euro/Canadian. American weather models suck.
February 9th, 2010 at 1:44 pm
Where is the Sharply Cold????
February 9th, 2010 at 1:52 pm
hate to say this folk but i honestly think all we will see is some snow showers/flurries. maybe a inch between montgomery and clanton. maybe. I hope it does snow for you all. i’ll be in michigan friday.
February 9th, 2010 at 2:11 pm
With snow in the south I think we can all agree that it is “voodoo” land until the first flake falls…..I have seen this all of my life in the south….it just can’t be forecasted well….too many eliments have to line up…..therefore we usually are always surprised one way or another…