Is it our turn? Tuesday 130 pm update
Models are now diverging with the storm only 3 days away! The Canadian GEM keeps the Gulf low close enough to the coast to spread heavy snow into parts of central Alabama on Friday, the European is a little farther south but shows enough upper-level dynamics for at least some snow in BHM, and the GFS keeps almost all of the precipitation along the coast and into the Gulf.
GEM
GFS
European
Snow amounts for BHM would be approximately:
GEM: 2.5″
GFS: 0
European: 1.5″
The low track is interesting, in that it forms off the Texas coast, a position climatologically favorable for snow here, as the normal track would then be along the Gulf Coast. Low pressure areas tend to move where the temperature gradient is largest, often along fronts, since they can most efficiently move warm, less dense air northward in those regions and lower the pressure ahead of the low. The biggest thermal gradient is usually near the Coast, as waters in the Gulf are usually several degrees warmer than the air inland.
This year, with our cold winter so far, Gulf of Mexico temperatures are running below normal, with a water temperature of 58 degrees about 50 miles southeast of Panama City and near Orange Beach. Here is the GFS model output for surface temperatures on Thursday night.
Notice the isotherms are oriented NW-SE, and a low following these would head toward Tampa, too far south for significant snow in BHM. I am not sure if the American models have input on Gulf temperatures that the Canadian and European do not, but if they do, this could lend more weight to the GFS. However, climatologically, these lows tend to hug the coast. It’s a tough call, and we’ll have to see how far south the cold air coming into Alabama now pushes into the eastern Gulf.
The best guess right now is a compromise, with heavier snow (3″ or more) somewhere near Montgomery, and only light snow (1″ or so) in BHM. This whole thing is still tough right now. Someone will get snow…it may wind up being Bay Minette!
February 9th, 2010 at 1:47 pm
Don’t tell me that, we’re going to Mobile on Friday for Mardi Gras.
February 9th, 2010 at 1:51 pm
This is so confusing. One minute someone is saying no snow (Jason this morning) and the next they are saying that we could get snow.
What is the time frame for the “possible snow” Friday. I just hope that if we do get snow that it does not disrupt schools and it is just something that we can enjoy on Saturday.
February 9th, 2010 at 1:52 pm
all i know is, yesterday the gem showed 2 inches, now 2.5, and the euro 1 inch, now 1.5…this thing will keep ramping up!
February 9th, 2010 at 1:55 pm
Ashley (post #2)
I think the public forecast should be followed. The blog is going to have discussions, viewpoints, model runs, etc. all they up to and even during the ‘event’.
February 9th, 2010 at 2:04 pm
Cid, do you not want it to snow while you are here? (mobile)
February 9th, 2010 at 2:04 pm
Excellent analysis Tim.
February 9th, 2010 at 2:11 pm
Come on now! I moved NORTH of Birmingham in hopes that I’d have a better chance at seeing some snow…been here 2 years and the most I’ve seen is that little flizzard we had last March. I want some snow darn it! **stomps around like a 4 year old**…=P!
February 9th, 2010 at 2:11 pm
I understand that they have their discussions, it is not them that confuses me. The models are all over the place with this system and we are not that far away. I hope that they continue to trend northward with this system and we do get snow. It would be nice for my little boy to have some snow to play in.
February 9th, 2010 at 2:12 pm
The # 8 post should be from me (Ashley). I was typing back to Jamey….sorry!
February 9th, 2010 at 2:15 pm
Bo Peep needs her behind paddled for stomping like a 4 yr old. If we get it good if not sobeit
February 9th, 2010 at 2:25 pm
ok….which model has been the most accurate for situations like this? its odd that the canadian is so wet and the gfs is so dry. does this happen often? when should the new models come out? thanks
February 9th, 2010 at 2:26 pm
let it snow
February 9th, 2010 at 2:30 pm
NAM is running now
February 9th, 2010 at 2:31 pm
What a great explanation of why the GFS has a southern bias.
February 9th, 2010 at 2:34 pm
18Z NAM is holding its place, mayb a little more north than the last run. Some of these models have to right and some wrong. WHICH ONE????
February 9th, 2010 at 2:35 pm
I’m starting to hate south Alabama. They stole all our moisture during the drought, now they may steal our snow. Can we please cut off the state from Montgomery south and make central Alabama a coastal area?
I’m totally just being silly. Them’s the breaks.
February 9th, 2010 at 2:35 pm
awh I wasn’t being serious, hence the “=P” at the end of my comment…I was more or less poking fun at some of the others on the board. We gotta have some fun some time…lol
February 9th, 2010 at 2:36 pm
tyler williams you are right about being a little more north…we just need for each model run to keep trending north
February 9th, 2010 at 2:41 pm
Check out the weather channels map
http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail/35243?dayNum=3
February 9th, 2010 at 2:43 pm
@ Bo Peep — Oh, I know, so was I. I love the buzz, even if the snow doesn’t happen. I don’t REALLY want half of Alabama to disappear. heh!
February 9th, 2010 at 2:44 pm
NEVERMIND THE NAM WAS MORE NORTH OVER TEXAS BUT IS TRENDING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME.. SORTA LOOKS LIKE THE LINE DR. TIM COLEMAN DREW…
February 9th, 2010 at 2:51 pm
i got a bad feelin the GFS is going to screw us. i still think flurries.
February 9th, 2010 at 2:51 pm
Would someone please ‘splain to me why if it’s 40 degrees out we get 3 inches of rain….but if it’s cold enough to snow we get .000000001 of .01 of an inch? I am putting in an offical request with the Lord to please change that around where we get 3 inches of moisture when it’s cold enough to snow and a “trace” or “dusting” of rain.
That is all.
February 9th, 2010 at 2:51 pm
NAM trending towards GFS…bad news!!!
February 9th, 2010 at 2:56 pm
NW to SE track of the low looking consistent now across models. Say goodbye to snow.
February 9th, 2010 at 2:57 pm
Bah, answering your question… Colder air causes suppression of precipitation. Warmer air allows for more moisture.
February 9th, 2010 at 2:58 pm
tbone plz splain
February 9th, 2010 at 3:02 pm
tbone plz ‘splain
February 9th, 2010 at 3:03 pm
Remember folks it’s still more than 2 days out. Anything can change.
February 9th, 2010 at 3:11 pm
During this entire season all our forecast snows went north when (at the last minute) the model runs took a northern route (as well as the storm systems). TN has been dumped on…and a small sliver of the northernmost part of Alabama saw a little bit of snow (like yesterday which almost doesn’t count since it melted rapidly). However, the major part of Madison County, all of Cullman County and Marshall County, etc hasn’t seen enough snow to fill a thimble. I have lived in Marshall county for 5 years and we haven’t seen any snows worth mentioning (a dusting on the grass and that’s about it). It seems like in the past several years the best snow has been in the extreme NW corner of Alabama, Tennessee and in the Birmingham area. So for those who think North Alabama “gets all the fun” when it comes to snow…we definitely do not. We just get told once a week that it might possibly snow…and 99% of the time we don’t see a flake.
February 9th, 2010 at 3:12 pm
I would have to say the NAM and GFS has a good grasp on this thing now. THey have shown the southward/southeast movement of the low since last night. I would not be shocked to see the other models do the same thing. If the air was warm around here the low would move northeast.
February 9th, 2010 at 3:32 pm
don’t worry guys this will be an historic snow for the state. these stupid models no nothing. the snow yesterday wasn’t prdicted by a model was it ? just have a little faith and you’ll be happy when it’s white outside. we will have a sweet spot around clanton to sylacauga to wedowee around 10 inches. wherever john who’s in michigan waiting to fly home will get 2 feet there and be stuck in michigan. he’s such a hater troll. i hope he get’s stuck there in an ice storm and we get a huge snow here. that way he want be able to see the beauty of god’s southern creation. he can stay in yankee land and rot with them in the ice. he’s going to be showed that he knows nothing. he believes he’s a james spann clone and he’s really a nothing.
February 9th, 2010 at 5:01 pm
so what we’re saying is that in the past 17 years (since the blizzard of 1993) that computer modeling is no better and in some cases worse.
The thing I remember about the 1993 storm is that James and other meteorologists who were on air at the time kept saying that the computer modeling leading up to the event was remarkably consistent for several days before hand.
Now, the models tend to be all over the place. Why is that???
February 9th, 2010 at 8:09 pm
the government has no money to spend except for wars and other countries that’s why.