Snow For Alabama Friday
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THIS AFTERNOON: Temperatures are considerably below MOS guidance; the computer models always struggle with weather extremes; guidance had highs in the low to mid 40s today; it is hard to find anybody over 40 over the northern half of the state this afternoon. At 2:00 Birmingham was at 36 degrees with an icy northwest wind gusting to 14 mph. Up in Winston County, Haleyville is below freezing at 31.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: We will stay dry and cold; look for a low down in the mid 20s early tomorrow; we have a chance of reaching the low 40s tomorrow afternoon, but guidance still looks too warm.
SNOW DAY FRIDAY: Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics that go along with this discussion…
HOW MUCH AND WHERE? Still looks like a South Alabama snow event Friday, with some light accumulation possible as far north as I-20. As you can see from our map, we figure the best chance of better accumulation will be in South Alabama from U.S. 80 down to U.S. 84; I have drawn a broad 1 to 3 inch zone here which includes places like Montgomery, Greenville, Troy, Auburn, Eufaula, Ozark, and Camden. I think somebody in that zone has a chance of getting more than three inches, but there is no skill in identifying that area at this stage of the game.
For the I-20 corridor, we project just a dusting to one inch for Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston, with only flurries to the north.
To the south, snow flakes could fall as far south as the Gulf Coast, but it will be mixed with rain there. Interesting to note the RPM shows some of the best snow accumulation in places not too far from I-10… Chatom, Bay Minette, Atmore, Brewton, etc.
WHEN? Snow should move into Southwest Alabama late tomorrow night, with the snow becoming widespread during the day Friday. All of the precipitation will be over by 9:00 Friday night.
The forecast is generally based on the European model, the ECMWF, which has shown the most consistency.
THINGS TO REMEMBER….
*During any southern snow event, there will always be surprises.
*Snow doesn’t accumulate along those nice straight lines we draw on the accumulation maps; we put those together for emergency managers and others that have to make plans well ahead of an event like this.
*Some will be severely disappointed in the amount of snow they see, while others will be delighted.
*This forecast can, and probably will change somewhat as Friday gets closer.
OUR WEEKEND: Saturday will be cold and dry, then we deal with a Clipper Sunday that will bring some light snow or snow flurries by afternoon, followed by very cold air early next week. If the 12Z GFS is correct, we won’t get out of the 20s here Monday and there will be snow flurries around. Wind chill index values could be in the single digits all day. Then, we stay cold and dry through mid-week with only a slow moderation.
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February 10th, 2010 at 3:19 pm
Winter Storm Watch:URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
309 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010
…LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY…
ALZ030>050-110515-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0001.100212T0600Z-100213T0000Z/
SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-
MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-
LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LIVINGSTON…EUTAW…GREENSBORO…
MOUNDVILLE…MARION…CENTREVILLE…CLANTON…ROCKFORD…
ALEXANDER CITY…DADEVILLE…VALLEY…LANETT…LAFAYETTE…
DEMOPOLIS…LINDEN…SELMA…PRATTVILLE…FORT DEPOSIT…
HAYNEVILLE…WETUMPKA…TALLASSEE…MONTGOMERY…TUSKEGEE…
UNION SPRINGS…AUBURN…OPELIKA…PHENIX CITY…TROY…EUFAULA
309 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS NEAR LIVINGSTON AND DEMOPOLIS. THE SNOW WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY MORNING. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME…IT APPEARS THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF ONE TO THREE
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS AND PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATION ON FRIDAY.
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER
EPISODE.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.
$$
February 10th, 2010 at 3:24 pm
Still waiting on the NWS in Mobile: URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
335 PM EST WED FEB 10 2010
…WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT…
ALZ065>069-GAZ120>124-126-142-111300-
/O.NEW.KTAE.WS.A.0001.100212T0900Z-100213T0600Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-
TERRELL-LEE-EARLY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER…
DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON…
SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…KINSEY…COWARTS…WEBB…
COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…
SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…
LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY
335 PM EST WED FEB 10 2010 /235 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010/
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA…COFFEE…DALE…HENRY…GENEVA AND HOUSTON. IN SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA…QUITMAN…CLAY…RANDOLPH…CALHOUN…TERRELL…LEE AND
EARLY.
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS LOW NEARS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT…LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. DUE TO A COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE…THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. AT THIS TIME…THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
WILL BE ON FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON…THUS IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR AS A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AT TIMES.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS…FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST LIKELY IN THE WATCH AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PEAK IN
INTENSITY AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WILL END ON FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME…STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF INCH
TO ONE INCH APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
DOTHAN TO BLAKELY TO LEESBURG. DUE TO TEMPERATURES AT AND NEAR THE
SURFACE BEING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. TRAVEL MAY BECOME
AFFECTED…ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. ALL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
$$
38-GODSEY
February 10th, 2010 at 3:41 pm
the dusting to an inch in central alabama with heavier amounts south has been the rule for some time now. Whoever gets snow will not have it long before it all melts Saturday due to highs in the 40′s.
February 10th, 2010 at 3:50 pm
Like James said, it was colder today than predicted and if there is snow cover Friday night those tempatures will be alot colder Saturday. We will have to wait and see.
February 11th, 2010 at 12:03 pm
The people who send nasty emails to James Spann need to get a life. Everybody is an expert these days. James does an excellent job but he is not God. He cannot predict the future–only look at data and give his best estimate based on his experience.
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