Quick Update
A quick update…
Tim Coleman is preparing a forecast update for 10:30. Stay tuned for that.
RADAR UPDATE
Moderate to heavy rain now is falling from Marion through Lamar, NW Fayette, Pickens and back into the Columbus area. Some heavy rain will cross Lamar, Fayette and northern Pickens Counties in the next hour.
Back over Mississippi, light rain and snow mixed continues over the northwestern third of the state. This precipitation has increased slightly in intensity and areal coverage in the past hour.
TO THE NORTHWEST
…Snow is tapering in Memphis. A NWS Employee reports one half inch of snow. The NWS Memphis expects the final totals to be around one inch when the snow tapers off after midnight.
TEMPERATURES
…43F at Golden Triangle Airport in Columbus
…41F at the Columbus AFB with Light Rain
…39F at Haleyville
…37F at Greenwood with Light Rain
…30F at Memphis International
UPPER LOW TO INTENSIFY SNOW
The upper low tonight is over southeastern Missouri. It is spinning eastward toward western Kentucky. Snowfall will intensify later tonight, especially across the Tennessee Valley.
It remains to be seen how far south the heavier snow will be able to set up. The area of Winter Storm Warning over Northeast Alabama looks like it should still receive the best snow accumulations (3-4 inches or more). Other areas north of I-20 may be closer to the original one inch we forecast. It may be hard to get extensive accumulations south of there.
This is a remarkable upper low. It likely still has some tricks up its sleeve.
This is a remarkable low and it still has some interesting tricks up its sleeve.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:05 pm
bill why is the precip, not intensifying or will it later ?
February 14th, 2010 at 10:05 pm
a lot of us in the chat room are worried the the 2nd line of precip. looks so very weak and flakey. Tim Coleman or anybody please re-assure us that it will become more intense as it approaches bham?
February 14th, 2010 at 10:05 pm
Looks like they are starting to finally back off the predictions. Suprise, suprise
February 14th, 2010 at 10:06 pm
also will there be more significant precip behind that 2nd line?
February 14th, 2010 at 10:08 pm
Rain in Nauvoo.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:10 pm
they are backing off on this:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
955 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010
.UPDATE…OVERNIGHT WEATHER.
&&
.DISCUSSION…
THE RAIN HAS FINALLY MOVED INTO WEST ALABAMA AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH TUPELO
AND JACKSON MISSISSIPPI AROUND 830 PM. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAIN IS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT. THE OTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS
POST-FRONTAL. THIS AREA CONTAINS A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW.
THE RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO SNOW AT MEMPHIS AND JACKSON
TENNESSEE. THE TRANSITION SEEMS TO LINE UP WELL WITH THE 1295 METER
1000-850MB THICKNESS LINE. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
ALABAMA…THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION TO SNOW…
ALTHOUGH IT MAY LAST ONLY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
HOWEVER…THE TRANSITION LINE IS NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD…AND IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE INCH WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE RUC MODEL IS
SUGGESTING HEAVIER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ON COOL SIDE OF FRONT
AFTER 06Z…AND AT THIS POINT FEEL CHANCES FOR 2 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF A BIRMINGHAM TO JACKSONVILLE LINE.
MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW BY A FEW HOURS.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:10 pm
I knew that this would pan out this way. We are not lucky enough to get two events in one week
February 14th, 2010 at 10:10 pm
As much as it hurts me to say it, I think this event is coming apart.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:12 pm
I think it wont be as wide spread. But a local area or two will still receive some good snow in the east
February 14th, 2010 at 10:13 pm
honestly, what else do you have to do than forecast weather. YOU ARE A WEATHER FORECASTER! Why is it so hard to get it right?
February 14th, 2010 at 10:15 pm
seems like the area of snow above the system , coming down through missouri is catching up with the first system…
February 14th, 2010 at 10:15 pm
i dont think this will be as powerful. I do think it will bring some surprises though. Also the models showed it with more moisture over eastern al
February 14th, 2010 at 10:16 pm
Well, better luck next time. Everyone can stop worrying about the weather and go to bed. It looks like only an inch or so for Birmingham.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:16 pm
It hasnt even got here yet.geeez! Nobody knows exactly what this low will do,not even the best of them. I still believe,as does Dr.Tim,that its got tricks up its sleeve.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:16 pm
It is amazing how quickly things can change. From large potential accumulation to almost nothing. Too bad, this sort of reminded me of the way snows came in back when I was young back in the 50′s and 60′s.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:17 pm
It seems the NWS has taken Jefferson County out of the warning area.
http://radar.srh.noaa.gov/?zoom=6&lat=34.11749&lon=-91.32523&layers=B000TTTTTTT
We are in the Advisory area.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:20 pm
Someone shd tell Ashley the forecast is changing. She is still talking like this is going to be a big event. Everyone else is starting to downplay.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:21 pm
HELLO! People that want to leave RUDE comments need to find something else to do! I actually read these to find out what preparations I need to make as far as getting to school and my children are concerned! THANKS sooo much to EVERYONE at ABC 33/40 for always being there and giving us the best forecast possible. I REALLY appreciate everything you guys do!
February 14th, 2010 at 10:23 pm
hey tyler, is this upper low anything like the one that hit us on march 1st 2009? thanks
February 14th, 2010 at 10:24 pm
You guys are not going to like the 00Z NAM
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=BMX
February 14th, 2010 at 10:25 pm
Anyone else having trouble refreshing to get updates?
February 14th, 2010 at 10:26 pm
I must have read the latest post wrong, I didn’t read it saying a bust
February 14th, 2010 at 10:26 pm
one thing that i have realized that not matter how many models James and company can look at, a storm can change at any given time. there is a chance this storm could get stronger as the night goes and the cold air rushes in. there is also a chance that the moisture dries out and most people get nothing but some flurries. we have to expect the unexpected, especially when u have a sys like this one.
it reminds me of the storm friday. all of the models were showing just north of mobile getting 8-10 inches and that didnt happen. i think james and co. did a good job of what the data showed them, but they are never going to be perfect.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:29 pm
Chase– seriously, meteorology isn’t an exact science! They don’t control the weather, they can only tell us what the numbers say it is going to do and then it is up to mother nature, or better yet God, what is going to happen. James is always the first to say that it is hard to predict too far in advance what it is going to do.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:30 pm
Has anyone else noticed how aggressive the NWS has been on these winter weather systems, only to have to back off at the last minute? I know they rely on models, but I think the criteria for winter weather warnings should be reviewed. They seem to be issuing Winter Storm Warnings for too large of an area at one time. Almost like a blanket warning to cover themselves.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:30 pm
It just goes to show that none of this is an exact science; while the technological advances are fantastic, there’s still nothing like looking out the window.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:33 pm
Thank you Lee Co.! Thank you! Not even got here and people have give up on it. It can still very well get strong over the east and even jeff. co. Or it could get even stonger than that.Only god knows.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:35 pm
This system was really looking good up until about 2 1/ hours ago. The really heavy line of rin storms startd developing out in front of the cold air and everything just started coming apart.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:36 pm
Everyone was wrong BCS game day.
NWS said over 2 inches Friday in Bham Thursday morning. Jason at 9AM said dusting to an inch. NWS was right in the end. 2.5 in Vestavia.
Tonight 3340 may be right. May not do anything, unless it really gets going with precip in Miss cuz tail is dying. Models showing .25-.5 east of 65 and NE of Bham so Bham out of warning.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:36 pm
UH! i just looked at the NWS homepage and jeff.co is still under a WSW. It’s also on 33/40 homepage.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:38 pm
I gotta say guys in all seriousness, this thing seems to be coming apart….
February 14th, 2010 at 10:39 pm
heavy rain, wind SW Cullman Co
February 14th, 2010 at 10:39 pm
Whoever has taken it on themselves to claim we are out of the warning and the above posting says this is a bust, neither of those things are true. The NWS has jeff co under warning and they said up on the blog that things have changed a bit but we have a little while before the system even gets here!
February 14th, 2010 at 10:40 pm
NWS map has removed and it makes sense. Really doesn’t matter because we had 2.5″ Friday with an advisory after warning downgraded.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:40 pm
I talk to a buddy of mine a while ago who knows some of this stuff. Said he didn’t think alot would happen. I guess I got a little help from my friend on this one. Bye,Bye!
February 14th, 2010 at 10:40 pm
BillPatterson….You are correct. It hurts me to said but this is heading downhill. I guess something could change but it does not seem to be heading in that direction.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:41 pm
http://cfc.abc3340.com/externalwebsite.cfm?website=http://www.alabamawx.com
zoom map out, bham out.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:42 pm
North Alabama from 278 north will be where the greatest threat for accum. will be it’s 36 in Winfield with moderate rain…..change over could happen soon and there is still a great deal of moisture to work with up this way
February 14th, 2010 at 10:44 pm
The NWS has not removed Jefferson County from the WSW as of right now.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:45 pm
Chase…..some cheese for your whine???
What is it that they didn’t get right??? They’ve been saying all along that it will start out as rain, then change to snow and much colder temperatures. That’s exactly what it’s going to do. What’s the matter…you mad because you won’t be able to go out and make snow angels in the morning? What’s the difference between 1 inch and 2 inches around here anyways? Oh…perhaps it takes 30 minutes longer to melt the extra inch.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:49 pm
Hanging on for an update from a PROFESSIONAL then calling it a night ….
February 14th, 2010 at 10:50 pm
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1048 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010
…WINTER STORM TO PASS THROUGH ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING…
ALZ017>021-024-026-151100-
/O.CON.KBMX.WS.W.0002.100215T0500Z-100215T1800Z/
BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-JEFFERSON-ST. CLAIR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ONEONTA…GADSDEN…ANNISTON…CENTRE…
HEFLIN…BIRMINGHAM…HOOVER…PELL CITY…MOODY
1048 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY…
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY…AND PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH THE EVENT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN…A CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS COLDER TEMPERATURES SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF TWO TO THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA…ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BIRMINGHAM
TO JACKSONVILLE.
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT…
FOOD…AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:50 pm
alyssa–me too….I thought it said Dr Tim was working on an update for 10:30? it is now 10:50? I’m ready for bed but wanna know what he is going to say.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:52 pm
Alyssa….Same here. Waiting on Dr. Tim.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:53 pm
Thanks Vestavia D for that update …. Malinda I am waiting for the same thing it did say update at 10:30 thats what i’m waiting for.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:54 pm
Well, at least now I know I can go to bed. No matter how bad I wanted to believe it, my brain just wasn’t going to accept it. We don’t get major back to back snows ’round these parts! If it pans out, I’ll be happy, if not I’ll go to work.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:55 pm
Temp is supposed to get 24* here tonight. Isnt the snow following the cold front?? All the snow is behind the line & rain.
February 14th, 2010 at 10:55 pm
Honestly it tickles me that the mets have backed off, it creates more surprises that way. I remember the system in 97 the guy was talking about earlier. The mets didn’t mention a thing, and four counties in west ala ended up with 5-6 inches of snow. I remember James Spann breaking into tv and saying he had never seen anything like it, it was only snowing in like Pickens, Greene, Hale and Tuscaloosa counties, and the system creating the snow was pretty much stationary over those counties….it was awesome, first time i saw snow fall during the day in my neck of the woods. I have seen on this blog on several occasions many people saying the biggest snows from memory occured when we weren’t supposed to get anything, or they weren’t forecast. I think the mets do a great job with the profession they have chosen and they do save lives. I just think those snows that aren’t forecast are Gods way of saying, ” IM STILL RUNNIN THIS SHOW” !!
February 14th, 2010 at 10:55 pm
Well, Shelby county is out of the mix – oh well
February 14th, 2010 at 10:59 pm
Anyone else having trouble seeing latest comment updates?
February 14th, 2010 at 10:59 pm
Looks like the guys over here at Peachtree City NWS think that at least a little something is going to happen later. Looks about like what was forecasted on Friday. You have to remember it had been snowing for 3 hrs before they called a Winter Storm Warning then. Here’s what they have to say:
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1011 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2010
…ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY…
.A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST GEORGIA TONIGHT…SPREADING
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA…ONE TO TWO INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR…AND
TWO TO FOUR INCHES OVER FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA.
Note: We live close to Marietta which is north of the “I-85 Corridor which means we should see at least one to two inches. We got just under 3″ last Friday. So it should be close to that. THAT IS IF ANYTHING HAPPENS AT ALL.
February 14th, 2010 at 11:33 pm
What about the snow/water on the ground from Bhm to Memphis? Anyone have updates on interstate driving conditions for Monday? What do you think…can I make it if I leave @ 10 a.m.?