Generally Dry Through The Weekend
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RIGHT NOW: The sky is partly sunny across Alabama in the wake of short wave “Andrew”, which produced some light snow across the central counties of the state. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for some video of the snow down on the Auburn campus this morning; a beautiful scene. Temperatures are mostly in the 40s, although some spots up in North Alabama are barely out of the 30s.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: With a clear sky and diminishing wind, we figure most places will wind up in the 21 to 25 degree range early tomorrow morning. Then, the daytime hours tomorrow should feature a bright sunny sky with a high in the mid to upper 40s. Friday looks pretty decent, with sunshine through scattered clouds and a high in the low 50s.
BERTHA/THE WEEKEND: The next wave (remember, I named these yesterday morning for some unknown reason) will pass south of Alabama late Friday and Saturday morning, and the GFS has come around to agree nicely with the ECMWF and the GEM, meaning most of the state will stay dry as the precipitation stays down south. So, we will forecast a dry weekend with afternoon temperatures below average for late February, but not too uncomfortable. The high Saturday will be in the low 50s, followed by mid 50s on Sunday.
CLARENCE: The next wave is still the one to watch; the ECMWF develops a significant low in the northern Gulf of Mexico, with potential for heavy rain near the Gulf Coast, and lots of snow for inland parts of the Southeast U.S. The 12Z GFS is too weak and too far south, and rejected. Absolutely no way we can tell you who gets the snow at this phase of the game; all we can do is sit back and wait, and watch in coming days. The models are generally slower, suggesting the main impact of this system will be on Tuesday. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for more details.
DOLLY: Another significant wave shows up around March 8-9 with potential for heavy rain or severe weather. Tis the season, you know. All voodoo, of course, at this point.
TORNADO DRILL: Outdoor warning sirens and the NOAA Weather Radio alarm were triggered this morning shortly after 9:00 as part of the statewide tornado drill that is done every year. Part of Severe Weather Awareness Week in Alabama.
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I had a great time today visiting with a big crowd at Bevill State Community College in Fayette… thanks to everyone who came out to see me. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
February 24th, 2010 at 3:38 pm
This should be right up Dr. Tim’s alley…would love to here from Dr. Tim!!
February 24th, 2010 at 3:58 pm
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/
February 24th, 2010 at 4:01 pm
Jess beat me to it! The HPC is on board the snow train. Let’s hope it holds out!
February 24th, 2010 at 4:04 pm
we will see. I have been hoping for 8-12 inches for a long time. Hopefully this one will be it for Birmingham.
February 24th, 2010 at 4:05 pm
Birmingham NWS throwing out the GFS as the outlier. Going with a blend of the Euro/Canadian.
WE ARE STILL WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT GULF LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK…WITH SOME COLD AIR
AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GFS…WHICH HAD THE
SURFACE LOW STRANGELY SUPPRESSED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE YUCATAN…
WAS SUMMARILY DISMISSED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE CONSISTENTLY
SHOWED A LOW MOVING CLOSE TO OR RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WAS LARGELY
BASED ON THIS MORE SIGNIFICANT AND CLOSER GULF LOW SCENARIO.
February 24th, 2010 at 4:12 pm
Well well well, it’s looking more and more like we are gonna get our chance after all. I know last weekend was the perfect weather with sunny skies and temps in the low 70s here, but still would like to see one more MAJOR snowstorm here, instead of just flurries or a dusting. Ready for Spring and Summer so I can start wakeboarding, but one more snowstorm will be fine with me… HOPE it plays out
February 24th, 2010 at 4:27 pm
I wouldn’t be so sure on the whole snowstorm thing. 18z GFS still has this thing far south with little or no precip this way. I think this thing may not pan out. One thing I do know. Snowstorms are rare in Central Alabama. Period. Ingredients must be perfect and this system is still several days away. I would wait until all models come into agreement before getting excited.
February 24th, 2010 at 4:45 pm
Ryne, the GFS is being dismissed at this point..it’s a big time outlier
February 24th, 2010 at 4:45 pm
the models are in agreement
February 24th, 2010 at 4:55 pm
I sure hope this one is the “real deal”. Been hoping for a good solid snow storm all winter. I too, am ready for Spring–but would LOVE to have one good snow on the ground before we call it a day. I can’t quit thinking of the chart they published showing the Euro and Canadian? maybe being the best performers for the snow predictions? Will be very interesting to see how this all pans out…..here’s to hope!
February 24th, 2010 at 4:55 pm
Rob: GFS is still a one of the major models, and the American model I think. My point is the system is still too far out to dismiss any model.
tbone: I said “all” models.
February 24th, 2010 at 5:01 pm
Im worried about the temps for us here in Bham. I dont know what to think about the temps any opinions?
February 24th, 2010 at 5:31 pm
I think pretty much everything is lining up where they should for this system on Monday night Tuesday. The GFS is showing its biases, as it has all year and has pretty much been written off all winter as an outlier during this time frame(the GFS as we know it now is about to undergo some major changes that hopefully will help with some of its biased and non functional performances) so lets just say there’s reasons to doubt its validity outside of 48 hrs. However, the GFS will trend this system north and west within the 60-48 hr time frame. The fact that the system is slowing a bit should be great news for the snowlovers as it will allow the big vort to the NE to slip off the grid and also allow for more of the colder air to become better involved. This wont be a south MS,AL,Ga system. This is an I20-I40 system. Lots of things have to happen in the meantime but the LR models have all had this storm in various forms on the grid for over 5-7 weeks now. I dont think temps will be much of an issue especially if this things really deepens in the N GOM as the models suggest.
February 24th, 2010 at 5:41 pm
GFS has been out to lunch all year…
February 24th, 2010 at 6:02 pm
What is up with the National Weather Service in Peachtree City GA? They are just calling for a chance of rain on Mon/Tuesday. They don’t seem to know how to forecast weather down there. The NWS in Birmingham is calling for rain or snow. I don’t know how NWS in GA can just dismiss the chance of snow. It appears that it’ll be plenty cold enough for snow. The question is how far north the storm comes. Mr. Spann, can you please teach those people in Peachtree City how to forecast the weather.
February 24th, 2010 at 6:27 pm
Mike in Atlanta:
The system is still 6 days away, with only 2 of the 3 best models in good agreement. This is on top of the fact that snow is very difficult to forecast in the deep south. There really is no reason to risk calling for snow that far out. Within 3 or 4 days would be reasonable. It is easy for non-meteorologists to call for snow this far out; however, put yourself in a meteorologist’s shoes and mention snow in the long-range forecast, which ultimately ends up becoming a non event. I understand that you are confused that the NWS there is not even putting the “chance” for snow in the forecast, but I could argue that when you consider the emotional nature of some people in the deep south when it comes to a “busted” snow forecast, the NWS is making the right call thus far. Just ask James Spann about the type of anger and emotion that snow brings out in people around here. This would not be as big a deal in other parts of the country.
February 24th, 2010 at 6:28 pm
Hey Mike in Atlanta –
NWS Peachtree City (a.k.a. “FFC”)is unfortunately a regular topic of discussion among those of us in Georgia who participate in this forum (and there are quite a few).
February 24th, 2010 at 6:34 pm
Mike In Atlanta: I assume you may be new to this blog. We have a “Club” of sorts, of bloggers over here that, let’s be nice and say, have some forecasting questions about very conservative long and short term forecasting by the entire “meteorologic community” in ATL. This includes both the NWS and the TV media. What you see on their current 7 day forecast is another example of this.
February 24th, 2010 at 6:37 pm
LET IT SNOW. LET IT SNOW. LET IT SNOW.
‘Course some of the turds at work would rather it not snow.
February 24th, 2010 at 6:37 pm
RORY: You beat me to the answer. We have to name the “Club”!!!!!!!!!!!!
February 24th, 2010 at 6:40 pm
How about the GWO’s (“Georgia Weather Outlaws”)
February 24th, 2010 at 6:57 pm
That’s why a lot of us on the east side of the state line come here to get real news about the weather! GWO’s!
February 24th, 2010 at 6:59 pm
love, love the navy! edging into a snow lovers dream……
http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml
February 24th, 2010 at 6:59 pm
That name sounds great to me Rory. I’m a huge Eagles fan, still play and sing their songs. However, I don’t get paid to do it anymore. Don’t know if your familiar with the album/cd cover of Desperado, that would make a great photo with a weather map behind us. There is also a song on there called “Outlaw Man”.
I know, I have to much time on my hands and I’m nuts!!!!!
February 24th, 2010 at 7:19 pm
GWO’s it is, then!!!
I have a copy of “Desperado” in my album collection. Actually, it’s OUR record collection, since it was originally my wife’s album. We merged collections when we got married. Yeah, we kept all our vinyl. It’s making a comeback, ya know!
NOGAPS Rocks, as always!
February 24th, 2010 at 7:23 pm
GWO’s all the way!!! I just had someone tell me tonight that it isn;r gonna do anything Mon or Tues b/c Glenn Burns says it is gonna be 50 degrees. I laughed.
February 24th, 2010 at 8:03 pm
I am new to this blog and have only been in the South and Atlanta a few years. I’ve lived in cities where they have competent forecasters, like Chicago and Boston. They have to be competent there because the weather is so complex and viewers demand competency there. It is frustrating to see forecasters in Atlanta be afraid to go out on a limb and take a stand, instead relying on some very narrow model solution. Thank God for this blog where James and other forecasters give a number of different model solutions and give their own take as well! What a concept!
February 24th, 2010 at 8:17 pm
GFS is still not in on the idea, but other models are thinking snow. This will not be 93 again, however this will be the best snow since then. I’m thinking 6 to 8, and given the cold air and moisture levels on the models, I-20 should be the sweet spot. Lets see what the NAM does on Friday night!
February 24th, 2010 at 8:23 pm
i am with the GWO
February 24th, 2010 at 8:25 pm
Do you think there is any way at all that the moisture makes it to I-40 (Nashville) or is that one to be ruled out?
February 24th, 2010 at 8:41 pm
GWOs, it is!
What does FFC stand for? lol
February 24th, 2010 at 8:44 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Field_(Peachtree_City,_Georgia)
February 24th, 2010 at 8:46 pm
Ah, thanks, Brent!
I thought it was some kind of acronym, like Failures at ForeCasting. lol
February 24th, 2010 at 8:49 pm
Amy, that is perfect…lol
February 24th, 2010 at 8:56 pm
As of now, the models are showing the deeper moisture south of nashville.
February 24th, 2010 at 9:02 pm
The NAM has pretty much been the best this year, and i bet James and the crew will post a snowfall accumulation map on Saturday. Sunday at the latest. Believe it or not, the initial forecast is typically 80 to 85% accurate when it comes to who will see snow, but as always expectations will be exceeded or severely disappointed.
February 24th, 2010 at 9:55 pm
I guess that means Nashville is done for the year.
February 24th, 2010 at 10:05 pm
BTW I’ll go ahead and say there will not be another March 1993 storm this year. There won’t be one next year either, or the year after that. Yes there will be snow in the deep south on occassions, but if you’re waiting on a March 1993 repeat you will probably be waiting for the rest of our lives. That was a ONCE IN A LIFETIME opportunity. Not to say there couldn’t still be a suprise 8-10 inch snowstorm
February 24th, 2010 at 10:15 pm
Looked at Huntsville NWS’s discussion, below is the section addressing the Mon-pm to Tues-pm period. I would assume if it’s too warm up there, according to their thinking, it will certainly be to warm along the I-20 corridor for any snow. Just another view from another NWS office. Pardon the pun, but it kind of rains on our parade.
WILL KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
FORECAST FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THIS FAR OUT…AND WITH
WARMER TEMPS…IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF ACCUMULATING
SNOWS WILL AFFECT THIS AREA. FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S
AND LOWS NEAR FREEZING. THE SYSTEM AFTER IT MOVES OVER THE WEST WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM EAST OF THE CAROLINAS COULD POSE A BIG PROBLEM
FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF HERE FOR THE MIDWEEK AND AFTER.
February 25th, 2010 at 12:17 am
I’m in total agreement, Ryne. I love snow, but I hate hearing about it 6 days before it “might” happen and I hate having a met GUESS at the outcome, then remind us it IS a guess and in “voodoo land” and impossible to correctly forecast a snow down here that early – I think the statistics would reveal that this far out you might as well flip a coin or throw darts at a board labeled “Snow” “Rain” or “No Snow Show”! I used to like it but now when I hear about the possibility of snow 5 or 6 days away, I won’t even begin to listen to the forecast/guesses until 1 or 2 days before the event.
Trying not to be so negative but it doesn’t make sense to warn us of potential snow 5 or 6 days away and then admit that there’s no way to forecast if it will happen. Maybe someone could enlighten me. I used to think that this was a good idea – to let people know far in advance that there might be weather problems. But I watch the blog and even this far out regarding a forecast of a potential snow event, there are many people who immediately start asking how deep it’s going to be in their town, or if they should change their travel plans a week from then – my point is that the information too many days out just stirs up a lot of emotion and worry (or “kid at Christmas” excitement) and doesn’t do a thing to help anyone plan for “next week”. The words “wait and see” seems to be the key phrase during situations like these.
Later – rp
February 25th, 2010 at 12:45 am
I still think you guys are crazy to say that this will be the biggest snow since 93 and get all excited. The 00z GFS basically shows nothing now. Most of ya’ll should know better than to get worked up on a system that is still 5 or 6 days away.
February 25th, 2010 at 12:56 am
Looking at #39 wayne-in-georgia and #40 rpo does this mean no snow for the first of next week in Birmingham?