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Scroll down for J.B.’s temperature update, but you can clearly see that this is our warmest day so far this year, and since November 2009. Nobody seems to be griping about the sunny, mild weather. But, with the warmth of March, comes the showers…

TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY: The lead short wave coming out of the Southwest U.S. will bring a chance of showers to our state tomorrow. It won’t rain all day, and the rain probably won’t be too heavy, but a few passing showers are likely. And, temperatures will back down due to the clouds and showers; both the NAM and the GFS are printing a high of 62 tomorrow for Birmingham.

Showers will become more widespread Wednesday as dynamics improve. We could also see some thunderstorms involved by Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for areas west of Alabama Wednesday, but for now there is very little surface based instability available for big severe weather issues here. In fact, the NAM hints will be in the 50s all day Wednesday with clouds and occasional rain.

On Thursday, rain should end early in the day as a dry slot in the mid levels moves into Alabama. We expect the sun will break out Thursday morning, pushing temperatures up into the mid 70s Thursday afternoon. This, combined with cold air aloft from the upper low just north of the state, will bring some decent instability, and we could see a few showers or storms firing up Thursday afternoon in scattered spots. But, Thursday won’t be a totally rainy day by any means with a decent amount of midday sunshine and mild temperatures.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The upper low will drift northeast. There could be enough instability for a few scattered afternoon showers Friday, but the best chance will be north of Birmingham. For the weekend our weather looks generally dry, although we can’t rule out a brief afternoon shower somewhere over North Alabama Saturday and Sunday. The weekend will be cooler, with highs in the mid to upper 50s Saturday, followed by low 60s on Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Seems like many people will enjoy spring break next week. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see that the first half of the week looks rather quiet, with no major storm systems around. Alabama’s weather (and the weather on the Gulf Coast) should be dry Monday through Wednesday with highs mostly in the 60s. We note water temperatures are hovering in the low 60s along the Gulf Coast, which will limit the amount of warmth you see next week along the immediate coast.

LONG RANGE: Model output is all over the board during the latter half of March, but with Fairbanks reporting -25 this morning, you have to figure some of that cold air is headed down toward the continental U.S., and some late month cold snaps are likely. At least they aren’t too severe or long lasting this late in the season.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. How do this winter’s snowstorms along the East Coast and across the Deep South compare to the great snowstorms and winter seasons of all time? The world’s leading expert on winter storms will tell us on WeatherBrains Tuesday night. Paul Kocin will join the show along with Author Kevin Ambrose (Great Blizzards of New York City and Washington). Scott Sabol from Cleveland will be the Guest Panelist. We will record this week’s show tomorrow night.

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I had a great time today visiting with employees at Hibbett’s Sporting Goods corporate headquarters in Birmingham, and the kindergarten kids at Deer Valley Elementary in Hoover. Be looking for those bright eyed students on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…