Eight In A Row

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We should tie our record of consecutive 100 degree days today. If we reach our projected high of 102, that means eight days in a row with triple digit heat, tying Birmingham’s record of 8 set during July 1980. We should easily squash that record tomorrow as temperatures soar again. In fact, we could stay in the triple digits all the way through the weekend.

The good news is that Birmingham’s dewpoint this morning is a refreshing 59, meaning the heat we experience today will be more like the “dry heat” folks in Phoenix talk about. I have spent a considerable amount of time outside in recent days, and this heat wave just doesn’t feel as nasty as other extended periods of very hot weather due to the low humidity values. Just trying to be positive here, you know.

The upper ridge will actually strengthen tomorrow and Thursday, and those days could offer the most intense heat; we will slowly back the numbers down after that.

NO RAIN: The bad news is that there is no sign of significant rain in sight, and the drought will only worsen as we go along. Most Alabama communities (in the north-central part of the state) are showing a rain deficiency of 20 to 25 inches. Scroll down and read J.B.’s “Weather By The Numbers” for more drought data.

Quite frankly, the GFS doesn’t offer much hope for rain here for the next 16 days. Not good.

TROPICS: Two systems of interest…. the disturbance moving into the far southern Gulf of Mexico will have a chance to become a tropical storm by the time it reaches the lower Texas coast later in the week. Model guidance has shifted southward a bit, with good agreement on the system moving to a point near Brownsville, Texas on Thursday. This could bring lots of rain to the Texas coastal plain, with some potential for flooding.

Way out in the Atlantic, tropical depression four looks a little better organized this morning. It is having a hard time growing stronger due to the fast movement, some wind shear over the system, and marginal sea surface temperatures. But, the more it moves to the west, the better conditions will be for strengthening. The GFDL brings the 35 meter winds to 122 knots at 126 hours, when it has the system just north of the Leeward Islands.

Just about all of the models have adjusted the track of TD4 to the right, into a projected weakness in the ridge north of the system. This might spare the Lesser Antilles, but that is far from being carved in stone. The 00Z run of the GFS now takes this system as a significant hurricane into the lower coast of North Carolina late next week. Voodoo… needless to say. But, it does look like the Atlantic coast is being the primary target for now… everyone from the Florida Keys to Maine will need to watch this one very closely.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather hosted by David Black and featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. The show notes will be posted later today; be sure and listen this week and you can play the “guess the landfall” game for TD4 with a very nice prize offered for the winner.

WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. Plenty to read over there this morning… be sure and check it out.

Very busy today ahead; I am headed up to WZZK this morning to be with the Rick and Bubba show in the studio. I am on the show most mornings by telephone, but Rick is on vacation this week and I will be sitting in for the 8:00 to 9:00 hour. Then, it is off to Alex City for a program at the city library there at 11:00; if you live near Alex City be sure and drop by.

I will be back in the studio by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day and STAY COOL!

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