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RIGHT NOW: The most active storms in Alabama as I write this are over DeKalb County; other strong ones are in the general area from Athens to Springville to Ashland. All of the showers and storms are moving to the southeast at about 15 mph, and SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms for the northern third of the state, with their main concern the MCS moving down into Northwest Tennessee. We will have the usual risks with today’s storms; wet microbursts, localized flooding issues, some small hail, and gobs of lightning.

We also note some strong storms way down south, the NWS in Mobile has just issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Mobile County.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Most MOS products are suggesting highs around 95 degrees for the next three days, with dewpoints in the low 70s, and heat index values near 100 at times during the afternoon hours. There is always some risk of an afternoon shower or storm with this type situation, but they should be widely spaced.

NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge goes nowhere, meaning very routine summer weather next week with partly sunny, hot days and the daily chance of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. Highs next week should be generally in the low 90s.

We do note the GFS shows lower surface pressures over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late next week; SSTs are very warm across the GOM, and it bears close watching.

THE ALABAMA BEACH: Look for some scattered storms every day. Most days will be about a 1 in 3 chance for any one given spot, but a better chance on Monday. High temperatures consistently will be close to 90 on the coast, with low to mid 90s inland.

TROPICAL: The second tropical storm of the season in the Pacific has formed off the SW part of Mexico. The name is Blas (hey, we don’t name ‘em, we just forecast ‘em). The Atlantic basin is rather quiet; NHC has a zero percent chance of the wave nearing the Leeward Islands of developing into a tropical storm due to strong winds aloft.

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