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Busy Tropics

| August 28, 2010 @ 10:22 am | 4 Replies

TROPICAL TOTE BOARD: Five named storms so far in the North Atlantic basin this hurricane season. Two of them have become hurricanes; one has achieved major hurricane status.

GULF LOW: The NHC mentions a low chance that the low along the Louisiana coast could become a tropical depression today before moving onshore. Don’t look for that to happen, but the low is bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to the northern Gulf Coast.

DANIELLE:   Danielle was downgraded to a category two hurricane this morning and now features top winds of 110 mph.   The center is 330 miles southeast of Bermuda at late morning.  The hurricane is now moving north northeast at 9 mph as it begins to recurve.   By Tuesday, it will lose its tropical characteristics and then lose its way, meandering northwestward back toward Greenland.   Bermuda has missed the worst from Danielle.

FROM THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE:   “Winds and squally showers will increase this afternoon as Danielle passes about 250nm to our east. Large swells have also developed along South Shore. Conditions are expected to ease overnight, then high pressure, building in from the northwest on Sunday, brings settled conditions for the start of the week.”

EARL:  Our eyes now turn to the second in our current string of storms.   Earl is 850 miles east southeast of St. Martin in the Virgin Islands at late morning, moving west northwest at 18 mph.  Top winds are up to 60 mph.   The official forecast carries Earl close to the northern Leeward Islands around Antigua and the Virgin Islands on Monday.  Then by Thursday, Earl will be a major hurricane and be roaming somewhere between  the Bahamas and Bermuda, so everyone will be nervously waiting its future moves.  The Hurricane Hunters will investigate Earl tonight.

FIONA? A large percentage of the hurricanes that form in the eastern Atlantic recurve out to sea. But the more hurricanes that line up, the worse our odds become. Don’t look now, but the embryonic Fiona is likely to be classified as a tropical depression today over the eastern Atlantic. There is not a clear picture of what will happen to the eventual Fiona. It could quite possibly follow Danielle and Earl out to sea. Or it could threaten the islands of the Caribbean and the U.S. East Coast.

DON’T LOOK NOW: But this train of disturbances off of Africa will continue for the next few weeks, and we will continue to see more hurricanes. Gaston is probably waiting in the wings in one of the strong disturbances coming across the African continent right now.

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Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site's official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site's severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian

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