* * * No Weather Xtreme Video This Morning * * *
Unfortunately there are some Internet issues at Cheaha State Park this morning, so I am unable to post a video this morning. Hate that since we have a lot going on in the weather world for Central Alabama – both now and for the future.
Right now a front is poised just to the northwest of Central Alabama and radar showed a long line of showers and thunderstorms stretching from just northwest of Chattanooga to south of Memphis to the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Interesting that the GFS is not doing a very good job on depicting that in the 06Z model run. The problem is that the flow aloft is parallel to those showers so we are going to have to wait until tomorrow and Monday for them to settle into Central Alabama.
The upper flow shows a strong trough coming our way, but for today the upper flow is not going to give much of a push to the front. So I expect most showers and thunderstorms to stay to the north of Birmingham. Additional shower development in our moist air is possible as moisture levels have continued to increase over the last couple of days.
The front should sag into Central Alabama as a closed upper low cuts off over Missouri on Sunday. The cutoff low will move across the Southeast on Sunday and Monday producing both clouds and numerous showers and thunderstorms. The upper low will move far enough east by Tuesday to allow us to clear out with much drier air coming into the area behind the trough. In fact I expect to see dew points down into the lower 50s – perhaps even lower 40s by Wednesday. So the feel of Fall is finally coming!!!
There does not appear to be any serious severe weather threat with this system. The SPC has a small section of the Central Plains noted for marginal concern for Day 1.
By Tuesday we could see highs only in the upper 70s. Is it possible that the last of the 90s are behind us? I think that is a very real possibility but longer range GFS output suggests the ridge coming back into the picture in 8 or 9 days so highs might flirt with the 90-degree mark again in early October.
Tropics remain somewhat active with Lisa and Matthew. Lisa is way out at sea headed north with no threat to land. Matthew, on the other hand, is pummeling Central America with wind and rain. That rain is probably the biggest threat for them. Matthew has maintained strength and the center could come out over water briefly today before it moves ashore on the Nicaragua coast. The storm is likely to weaken and drop back to depression status. However, a northwesterly track – somewhat slow – will mean the center could emerge into the Southwest Gulf late Tuesday. In fact, the GFS ramps up a tropical system around Thursday, but NHC noted in their latest Matthew advisory that this is NOT Matthew. Trying to follow the continuity of Matthew is difficult. What appears to be a second system moves into the Central Gulf around October 1, Friday. But then it seems to stall and move southwestward meandering around the Southwest Gulf for several days! So this is definitely going to be one of those “stay tuned” situations!
Rainfall for us over the next three days could amount to between 1 and 2 inches with some heavier amounts possible depending on the track and movement of that upper low. It does seem likely that the heaviest rain will be over Georgia with a rainfall gradient from east to west – ie., West Alabama will have one half to one inch while East Alabama gets 1 to 2 inches. Due to the dry September we’ve had, ground conditions are very dry so I do not think flooding will be an issue. Flash flooding – rapid flooding in heavy rain areas – could be an issue that will be watched.
Looking further ahead, the ridge does return but it remains centered primarily to our west. With troughing on the East Coast, this should mean some chances for rain along with more seasonal temperatures.
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Lots of activities at Cheaha State Park today. There is an arts and crafts event sponsored by Helping Hands plus a chili cook-off! I understand from Tammy Power, the hotel manager at Cheaha State Park, that the chili ranges from mild to 4-alarm category! I’ll be staying away from that really hot stuff! I’d like to keep my stomach lining in tact for a few more years.
I’m very excited about the live remote for WeatherBrains on Monday! We will be at Huck’s Rib Shack on US 78 in Leeds and he’s even offering a discount for WeatherBrains listeners. Maybe we’ll see you there. Whatever you do today, enjoy the weather. If you get to Cheaha today, say hello to the guy at collecting money at the front gate – that’ll be me! Godspeed.
For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate, detailed information on past storms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. Whether it is an insurance claim needing validation or a court case where weather was a factor, we can furnish you with information you need. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.