Remembering Hurricane Frederic

Sunday morning, September 9, 1979 dawned refreshingly cool and crisp across North and Central Alabama with a beautiful blue sky and a fresh easterly breeze. The morning low at Birmingham was a comfortable 62F. The pleasant late summer weather was compliments of strong high pressure over the northeastern United States. It was our end of summer team member picnic for the employees of Cinema City 8 in Roebuck, where I was an usher. Despite brilliant sunshine, the high of 83F combined with a fresh easterly wind made for a fairly cool afternoon.

I remember waking up and listening to the NOAA Weather Radio that morning. The tropical depression that had once been Tropical Storm Frederic was on the south coast of western Cuba. It was moving slowly west northwest and was expected to strengthen when it moved over open water over the southeastern Gulf. Famed Hurricane Forecaster John Hope wrote the noon advisory, which upgraded Frederic to a Tropical Storm. By Sunday evening, the NHC forecast began to predict an eventual turn to the north on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a trough over the western U.S.

By Monday morning, September 10th, a slow north northwesterly course was forecast, thanks to a cold core upper low over the northwestern Gulf. It became apparent that Frederic would become a hurricane later that day, and it happened on the 6 p.m. advisory. Not much happened in the way of strengthening through the overnight. Morning forecasts on Tuesday called for a landfall in the Florida Panhandle, but hinted that the upper low could produce more of a westerly component of motion. The advisory also hinted that a hurricane watch would be required later that day. Just after midnight, the recon fix found a pressure of 985 mb. The pressure began to fall like a rock, dropping to 971mb by 809 a.m. CDT. Back then the forecast discussions ominously ended with, “THE FOLLOWING FORECAST POSITIONS ARE NOT TO BE RELEASED TO THE PUBLIC.”

The Alabama Weather Summary issued on Tuesday morning at 11:20 a.m. was headlined “ALL EYES ON HURRICANE FREDERIC”. On the 3 p.m. EDT advisory, the winds were increased to 110 mph. Recon at 4:01 p.m. CDT showed a pressure of 966 mb. The 4 p.m. Alabama Weather Summary said “…FREDERIC IS NO LADY…ALABAMA RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP POSTED.” A hurricane watch was issued at 6 p.m. EDT from Vermillion Bay, Louisiana to Panama City. By the late evening advisory winds were raised to 120 mph, and the central pressure was 958 mb. Hurricane warnings were raised on the coast from Grand isle to Panama City.

The pressure was down to 948 by sunrise on Wednesday, September 12th. Winds had increased to 130 mph. It was evident that Frederic was going to be an extremely dangerous hurricane. It crossed Dauphin Island and made landfall near the Alabama/Mississippi border around 10 p.m. on Wednesday night. A wind gust to 145 mph was reported at the Dauphin Island Bridge. A storm surge of twelve feet destroyed much of Gulf Shores. A total of eleven fatalities were directly attributed to Frederic.

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