More Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow

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CALM TONIGHT: While a rogue shower or storm is possible, most communities across Alabama will be rain-free tonight. It sure won’t feel like fall, with temperatures holding above 70 all night and low clouds developing toward daybreak.

MORE SEVERE WEATHER? SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather (their standard risk) for much of North and Central Alabama. A moderate risk is in place to the north over parts of Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. A very intense surface low (around 960 mb) will form over Minnesota, and produce warm, windy, and story conditions to the southeast, with the first blizzard of the season possible in the colder air northwest of the low over North Dakota.

Scroll down for Dr. Tim’s post on the event… the better dynamics for severe weather will be north of Alabama, but we will have better instability values in place here. We note the NAM ramps up the surface based CAPE values here to almost 2,000 j/kg tomorrow evening, which certainly supports severe storms if there adequate dynamic lift and the absence of a capping inversion. Forecast helicity values suggest we could very well have a few thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night with a tornado, along with large hail and damaging wind.

We believe the main window for severe storms will come from about 4:00 p.m. until 12:00 midnight tomorrow, with the best chance of the discrete supercells ahead of the main line during the late afternoon and evening hours. A squall line will move through in the 7:00 to 12:00 p.m. time frame with potential for damaging straight line winds.

Like last night, everybody will need to be in a position to hear severe weather warnings if they are needed. The good news is that additional rain amounts of one inch are likely, with local amounts to two inches. This, of course, is in addition to the rain that came down last night. Scroll down for J.B.’s long rain total list.

WEDNESDAY: The latest model runs suggest that lingering showers and storms are possible Wednesday morning, but cooler and drier air will begin to roll in by the afternoon hours with a brisk north breeze as the sky becomes partly sunny.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Cool and dry weather is the story. The high Thursday will drop into the low 70s, and by Friday morning most communities will see a low in the 37 to 42 degree range. Friday will feature bright sunshine and a high only in the mid to upper 60s.

The coldest morning will come early Saturday. The 12Z GFS is printing 39 for Birmingham, and it sure looks like the colder valleys will have a light freeze. Saturday and Sunday both look fantastic with ample sunshine and highs in the 70s.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS shows a southern stream short wave that will bring a chance of rain and storms to the southeast quarter of the nation on election day, Tuesday November 2. It remains to be seen if this one will give us a heavy rain or severe thunderstorm threat.

VOODOO LAND: An active pattern continues with more opportunities for rain and thunderstorms on occasion… check the Weather Xtreme video for details.

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