You can watch the morning Weather Xtreme video in the player above, or see it in iTunes. Take your pick!

A LITTLE RAIN TODAY: Don’t expect much rain today; the latest extraction from the GFS shows 0.09″, while the NAM/WRF prints a whopping 0.21″. There will be a few scattered showers around today, and most likely a line of showers this evening along the surface front. I guess a thunderstorm is possible within the line, but I don’t expect much thunder or lightning with limited instability. The showers will move out of the state late tonight.

TURNING COLDER: Check out the video and see temperatures around the nation early this morning. I see lots of places in the single digits over Montana and Wyoming, and that cold air is slowly dropping southward. It will be shallow by the time it reaches Alabama, but we will really feel a difference tomorrow. The model guidance is beginning to drop our temperatures even more as it catches on to the degree of the cold air. Both the GFS and the NAM/WRF keep us below 60 all day tomorrow, and the NAM/WRF has dropped the low for Birmingham Friday morning to 31 (the GFS and our forecast has 34). Looks like many areas will indeed see a light freeze early Friday, and Saturday morning should be just as cold.

The cold air is dry, so the sky should be partly sunny tomorrow, and we expect maximum sunshine on Friday and Saturday. Sunday will be dry as well, but some high clouds will probably invade the state.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Model madness continues, and each GFS run looks different in terms of the details of events in the November 6-16 time frame. No way we can resolve details, but the period looks active with potential for a couple of major storm systems. The 00Z GFS has pushed our rain event for next week back to Thursday and Friday; our forecast package for now highlights rain and storms on Tuesday. I don’t believe in adjusting a forecast based on one model run; lets take a look at the 12Z runs before we change anything.

And, the 00Z GFS brings a dynamic system in here with some severe weather potential around November 14. But, this is voodoo land big time. The message is that the weather will be active and changeable November 6-16; we will just have to be on our toes.

DECADE OF ALABAMA WEATHER: A reminder our 60 minute special, “A Decade Of Alabama Weather”, is available on the web site in the video vault. This ran on ABC 33/40 this past Sunday night; another great Bill Castle production.

ABC 33/40 SKYWATCHERS? Interested in being a severe weather spotter for our weather team? Check out our Skywatcher program. This team reports back to in real time during active weather using Instant Message technology. And, if you need some training, our Storm Alert XTREME is coming up November 11 at the BJCC. We only offer this training once a year, so make plans to join us!

I am headed to Blount County today to see the kids at Hayden Elementary; I will be back in the office early this afternoon and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30!