For The Snow Fans
I am amazed at the angry tone of e-mails this evening… some are simply livid that I am not predicting a big Christmas day snow storm that would be historic for Alabama. I will probably never understand why winter weather brings out such passion and emotion. Seems to be more intense every year. Never was like this in the “old days”… one guy called me an “idiot of historic proportion” because “his forecast” was for 6 inches of snow for Birmingham. Wow.
Some thoughts on the 00Z model set… (sounds like Dr. Tim will have a post in an hour or so to supplement the post below this one)
*The GFS shows the best dynamic lift to the north and south of here… with phasing not complete Saturday as the system swings through.
*The NAM keeps the best chance of accumulating snow well to the north… here is the 00Z NAM snow accumulation through 84 hours..
*Moisture remains limited over North-Central Alabama on the 00Z GFS… and with the UVVs best to the north and south it sure seems like we don’t see enough evidence to support a big threat of accumulating snow for the I-20 corridor just yet.
*There is no well developed surface low Saturday. There is one to the south, and a weak one to the north. It remains to be seen which will become the dominant low.
*More than likely, phasing of the vorticity and rapid deepening of the surface low happens east of Alabama, where a whopper of a snow event is possible Saturday across parts of East Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia. It will be interesting to watch this one as it moves northeast up the Atlantic coast Sunday.
*The ECMWF and UKMET won’t be in the house for another 30 minutes or so, and the event is quite within range of the RPM, which handled the ice event a week or so ago with high accuracy. I will have a full discussion and fresh Weather Extreme video by 6:30 a.m…
*There is little skill in forecasting specific details of a winter weather event more than 48 hours in advance in Alabama. A little humility is in order here, you know.
Just a reminder… we don’t mind the trolls, know-it-alls, and haters in the comment section (they actually give the blog a little flavor), but these comments are not allowed:
-Personal attacks
-Deliberate misinformation
-Posts with profanity
Let’s remember this is a truly marvelous season.. a time to be joyous and happy. Count to 10 before you send that nasty e-mail… it is just weather, you know.
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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