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Rain Tomorrow; Snow Wednesday Morning

| January 24, 2011 @ 3:38 pm | 102 Replies

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Be sure and see the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics that go along with this discussion… but then again you know that… And, scroll down for the text of the winter storm watch as issued by the NWS Huntsville for this upcoming event. We also note that the Birmingham NWS has just issued winter storm watch for these counties within their county warning area: Blount, Cherokee, Etowah, Marion, and Winston. So… the bottom line is that all counties from these listed north to the Tennessee border are under a winter storm watch now.

TONIGHT: Clouds thicken, and rain should break out after midnight. I doubt if we drop below 40 tonight.

TOMORROW: Periods of rain are likely throughout the day as our low in the Gulf develops on time. Rain amounts of 1/2 inch are likely, with heavier amounts to the south.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING: The cold core upper low will move right over North-Central Alabama, and dynamic cooling from that feature, along with cold air advection from the deepening low to the east, will mean there is a good chance the rain will change to snow over the northern half of Alabama.

Our snow accumulation potential graphic is below…

IMPORTANT NOTES:

*Most of the accumulation will be on grassy areas. We figure temperatures will be in the 32-35 degree range as the snow falls, and most roads, and even bridges, will remain mostly wet along the I-20 corridor. No doubt there could be some traffic issues, but for now I don’t think there will be really widespread problems. The sunshine today is helping to warm the infrastructure, which is a good thing.

*The greatest snow accumulation will be across higher terrain, especially for locations above 1,000 feet.

*To the north, along and north of U.S. 278, there is greater danger of icy travel, where temperatures should be in the 30-33 degree range. Even in this part of North Alabama, however, many of the black top roads will just be wet.

*The snow won’t stick around too long this time as there is no Arctic air involved in the system. So, while some schools might decide to take the day off Wednesday, we think by Thursday everything gets back to “normal”. We will warm into the 50s by Friday.

*I think there is a real chance some places could see 5 to 10 inches of snow, but it will be isolated, and across higher terrain (above 1,000 feet). Jason Simspon worked the analog desk this morning, and suggests this one will be similar to the March 2001 event, that brought almost 10 inches to parts of Blount County’s higher terrain (mainly on Straight Mountain).

*The greatest chance of snow will come from about 2:00 a.m. until 10:00 a.m. Wednesday.

*We have limited skill in forecast snow amounts under cold core upper level lows. That means our two points are especially important this time…

1. There will be surprises
2. Some will be delighted with the snow they see, and others severely disappointed.

Don’t expect the forecast to change very much… we will just go into the “nowcasting” mode late tomorrow night as this whole event begins.

REST OF THE WEEK: Thursday will be mostly sunny and cool, with a high in the mid to upper 40s. Then, on Friday, a good chance we reach the 50s with a good supply of sunshine.

NICE WEEKEND: The weekend looks delightful. Mostly sunny Saturday and Sunday with a high in the 50s. No rain or snow.

LONG RANGE: See the Weather Xtreme video for details… the 12Z GFS is still hinting at the next chance of winter weather mischief around Ground Hog Day. Still out there in the land of voodoo…

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Tonight’s topic… Tornadoes and Interstates. The guest weather brain is Scott Blair of the Topeka NWS office, and the guest panelist is Nicole Misencik of WTHR in Indianapolis. You can watch/listen via uStream when we produce the show tonight from 8:30 until 10:00 p.m. CST here.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

James Spann Jason Simpson Ashley Brand
J. B. Elliott Bill Murray Brian Peters
Dr. Tim Coleman WeatherBrains Podcast E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

I had a great time today seeing the 2nd graders at Trace Crossings Elementary in Hoover, and the 4th graders at Gaston Elementary near Gadsden. Be watching for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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