A Little Light Rain Today In Spots

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Looks like no dull moments in the weather office for the next few weeks as the wave train continues across the continental U.S. Lots of players on the field, and we have to note the really cold air building up in Alaska; Bettles is reporting a toasty 42 below zero as I write this.

SHORT TERM: A few patches of light rain are noted on radar this morning, and we will continue to mention the chance of scattered light rain during the morning hours as we catch the tail end of an upper trough passing north of here. Just saw a report from our Trussville Skywatcher of 0.03″ since midnight. The afternoon and nighttime hours should be generally rain-free, although the clouds will linger.

A stronger wave will impact Alabama tomorrow with rain at times and possibly a thunderstorm. The NAM has gone nuts with this feature and is printing 2.17″ of rain for Birmingham. The GFS seems to be more in line with reality; it is showing 0.59″. Severe weather is not expected around here; the only part of Alabama in the day 2 sight risk is Mobile and Baldwin counties.

Friday will be a dry with with a partly sunny sky and a high in the low to mid 60s.

THE WEEKEND: A pretty vigorous wave will bring a nice rain event to Alabama over the weekend. The 06Z GFS is a little slower; it suggests the main rain event will be from about midnight Saturday night to 12:00 Noon on Sunday. This is about 12 hours slower than recent runs; for now we won’t change anything. Looks like one-half to one inch of rain for most of the state, and the severe weather potential is small up here due to the lack of instability. We do note that SPC has the area south of a line from Tuscaloosa to Montgomery to Dothan in a severe weather risk with this system; we will keep an eye on things to see if the instability values should turn out to be more than forecast.

Sunday will be a sharply colder day with temperatures settling into the 40s with a brisk north wind.

CHRISTMAS WEEK: The 06Z GFS has introduced some model madness into our Christmas week formula. It brings a strong wave through here on Christmas day, with a chance of rain for the southern two-thirds of the state, and snow for the northern third. But this run is clearly an outlier for now; we will leave the forecast alone and still mention only dry and cold weather for Monday and Tuesday. But, if you are dreaming of a you know what, this gives you a glimmer of hope. I am afraid that glimmer will dim in the days ahead…

A nice system still shows up in the December 28-29 time frame, and the wave pattern remains very active well into January. Strap on your seat belt and hang on for very changeable weather. Hopefully some good rain totals along the way… and just maybe a winter weather threat or two.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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