Tropical Trouble Ahead For The Gulf

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STILL HOT THROUGH SATURDAY: While our eyes will be focused on developments in the Gulf, up here across North/Central Alabama our weather should stay hot, and mostly dry through Saturday with highs in the low to mid 90s along with a decent amount of hazy sunshine each day. There will probably be a few showers on radar during the heat every day, but they should be few and far between.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Mostly fair weather for the high school games tonight and tomorrow night; kickoff temperatures will be around 90, falling through the 80s during the game. I can’t completely rule out the risk of an isolated shower somewhere around here, but most stadiums will be dry.

College football gets underway this weekend. Alabama hosts Kent State at Bryant Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa; the kickoff will come shorty before 11:30 Saturday morning; the sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature of around 90 degrees, rising into the low to mid 90s during the game. The chance of a shower during the game is only in the 20 percent range. Auburn hosts Utah State at Jordan-Hare Stadium; at the 11:00 a.m. kickoff the temperature should be near 87 degrees, rising into the low 90s by the fourth quarter. For now we will project a 30 percent chance of rain during the game; we will keep an eye on potential Tropical Storm Lee for any greater impact.

LEE FOR LABOR DAY: The disturbance in the Gulf is expected to become Tropical Storm Lee within the next 24 hours, and tropical storm watches could be required for the Central Gulf Coast as early as tomorrow.

Steering currents are expected to collapse, meaning Lee should drift slowly and erratically just off the coast of Louisiana for 48 hours, or maybe even longer. This will bring a heavy rain threat to Southeast Louisiana, and coastal counties of Mississippi and Alabama. Flash flood watches are already up for some parishes in Louisiana, and the far southern part of Mississippi. The heavy rain could extend eastward into the Florida Panhandle as well, but that eastward extent will all depend on the intensity and structure of Lee.

INTENSITY: There is a pretty decent amount of shear across the Gulf, so I don’t expect Lee to strengthen very rapidly. Most models keep the system at tropical storm strength, although a few bring it up to a Category One hurricane. I think heavy rain and flooding will be the main threat from Lee.

MODEL MADNESS: Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see that models are all over the road with the Gulf system. A number of them actually show Lee drifting toward the southwest, in the direction of the Texas Coast. Then, some move the system into South Texas, but others bring it back to the northeast, with the ECMWF moving it through Alabama at the end of next week.

The bottom line is that there isn’t much skill in trying to be really specific in forecasting this system at this early stage of the game. But, for now, we will forecast an increased threat of rain for North/Central Alabama Sunday and Monday, but with a fickle tropical system involved that forecast can change in a hurry.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND ON THE COAST: Needless to say, it looks very wet and windy at times along the Gulf Coast from Panama City to Gulf Shores. But again, the placement of the heaviest rain axis all depends on how Lee develops. Again, a tropical storm or even a hurricane watch could be required for parts of the Central Gulf Coast as early as tomorrow. If you have a trip planned, keep up with the latest statements and developments on the Gulf system.

KATIA: The hurricane in the central part of the Atlantic is expected to recurve well east of the U.S., but could be close to Bermuda by the middle of next week.

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Tags: Lee

Category: Alabama's Weather