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A Warm November Day

| November 8, 2011 @ 6:19 am | 2 Replies

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HEADED FOR THE 70s AGAIN: We are forecasting a high of 75 degrees this afternoon… that is 8 degrees above the average high of 67, and 9 degrees shy of the November 8 record high of 84 set in 2005. The sky will be partly to mostly sunny… just a delightful day for November.

TO THE WEST: Very heavy rain is falling this morning over Oklahoma, where flash flood watches are in effect, and SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather later today and tonight in the broad area from Houston to St. Louis. Some of the cities in the risk include Shreveport and Little Rock. An isolated tornado is possible, but I doubt if we see a repeat performance of the twisters we saw yesterday over Oklahoma with marginal shear values.

TOMORROW: The upper support for the system to the west will weaken and lift well north of Alabama, meaning we can expect only a few light rain showers during the day. The NAM is printing only 0.04″ for Birmingham, so beneficial rain is not likely. The sky will be generally cloudy tomorrow with a high near 70.

COLDER AIR THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Thursday will be sharply colder… the high drops into the mid 50s with a chilly north breeze and a clearing sky. Still looks like a freeze for most places early Friday with a low in the low 30s; colder spots will be in the 20s. Then, despite a sunny sky on Friday, the high will be in the upper 50s, about 10 degrees below average values for early November in Alabama.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Saturday morning will be cold with another freeze likely, but we warm up slowly over the weekend with a good supply of sunshine Saturday and Sunday. We are expecting mid 60s Saturday, followed by upper 60s Sunday. Yet another great weekend for football or anything else outdoors.

NEXT WEEK: Moisture levels will rise early in the week, and while a shower could show up Monday or Tuesday, the GFS still shows the next decent rain event on Wednesday. The 06Z GFS is showing better upper support and some hope for beneficial rain, but other runs have not been as aggressive. Keep in mind the last time we had over 1/4 inch of rain in a single day was way back on September 20. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

SEAN IS ON THE BOARD: You can debate whether this one deserves a name, but the NHC guys have now identified a “sub-tropical” storm northeast of the Bahamas that has the name Sean. This system will move slowly north, and then northeast away from land in coming days.

STORM ALERT XTREME: Our annual storm spotter training is coming up on Saturday, November 12 at the BJCC, as part of the Alabama International Auto show. We begin at 9:00, and you will be done at 2:00. And, as a “thank you”, you will get free admission into the car show. There is no cost, and no need to register, just show up. Brian Peters will be the trainer, and we ask all existing and potential Skywatchers to attend. See you there!

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode.

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I will be speaking today Southeast Mine Safety and Health Conference at Ross Bridge… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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