Snow Early Next Week?
The graphic below suggests a 30-40 percent chance of 1 inch or more of snow in the ground through parts of extreme North Alabama from 6pm Sunday through 6pm Monday CST…
The culprit that will bring the chance of snow flakes is a cold core upper low… here is the 18Z NAM depiction of the upper low at midnight Monday night CST…
This feature will bring cold and unsettled weather to Alabama Sunday through Tuesday. The graphic below shows the various “critical thickness” values needed for snow (generally speaking)… valid at 6 am CST Tuesday… Note the critical low level thickness values are not in place here (the black line, 1300 meters 1000-850 mb)… meaning much of the snow that falls will melt before reaching the surface.
WOE IS US: You probably have heard the saying “cold core upper low, weatherman’s woe”… these are very challenging to deal with, and almost always bring surprises.
At first glance, the chance of accumulating snow here looks pretty small due to warm soil temperatures and surface temperatures expected to be above freezing. But, ULLs like this can occasionally bring heavier snow showers that can make the ground white in spots. Trying to identify where this will happen now is an exercise in futility.
Best forecast for now is simply to mention cloudy and cold weather Sunday night through Tuesday with a chance of light rain or light snow at times with no significant accumulation expected. Highs only in the 40s… very raw conditions. But, let’s all watch this closely and try to figure out what surprises are on the board for Alabama.
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Category: Alabama's Weather
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A Thanksgiving snow. Now that is a blessed event. Won’t everyone come by for some hot cocoa and fun!
I’d love to see some snowfall!
How much for Jasper?
These are the types of systems that give parts of the south those surprise 6-8 inch snowstorms in spots. I don’t expect it to happen this go around, but you never know.
I think the 18z is too far south with the ULL, but you never know. It’s up in the air (literally) at this point. Have a good feelin’ northern Alabama will get something out of this though…
JP, it looks like Jasper will get 1.421 inches of snow, and your back yard will get a drift of exactly 2.817 inches under your northernmost deck chair. There will be three confused geese that will land on your roof, thereby causing you to wake up on Monday morning and verify these measurements at 5:38am. Of course the next model run might be different, but I just don’t see it changing any at all between now and then.
PJ, I think thats goose poop accumulating on your deck. Everyone else should see snow. Looking forward to heavy wet snowflakes falling here on sand mountain Monday night. There will be a sweet spot with an upper level low. Someone will be surprised how much snow falls between Mon. eve and noon on Tues!
I think it’s backing off a bit on snow for N. Alabama. Lets see what BP comes up with
Drop-N-Go Daykare in Midfield will be closed Monday.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge01_2011112612f072.gif
Those snow accumulation maps are useless with this type system. If you have any elevation at all you will get much more snow than the valley areas. a couple hundred feet will be the difference between heavy wet snow and cold rain.
Keep in mind that the ground temps are around 60 degrees. The snow that does fall will melt quickly.
Seems as if it may happen over the Florence, Shoals area, but again it’s model data output that we are going by. This will definitely be a surprise for someone in Alabama…. Just saying!!
I wish it would snow sometime soon In Alabama