Rain and Colder – Snow?

| November 27, 2011 @ 7:38 am | 10 Replies

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What an interesting forecast challenge we have ahead of us. For the moment, rain covers nearly all of Alabama from south to north with rainfall amounts so far across the state in the one quarter to half inch range for many with some sections of western Alabama up to one inch or so. Looks like the rain will stick with us for the morning with a short break for the noon hour or so and then some more rain for the afternoon more in the form of showers. Also we have probably seen our highs for the day with temperatures expected to stay in the 50s for most locations in Central Alabama.

The deep trough coming across the Mississippi River will close off Monday and that cold core low will keep the weather unsettled for us into Tuesday. The low and the strong northwesterly flow will drop temperatures into the 40s for Monday. Any precipitation on Monday is likely to come in the form of rain, however, as we get into Monday evening and Tuesday morning, that will change. With a shallow warm layer we should see a mixture of rain and snow Monday evening gradually going over to all snow as the warm layer is wiped out. However the precipitation is likely to be light with no significant accumulation anticipated due to our warm ground. Since we could see snow showers with the strong upper low, some snow bursts are possible which could briefing cover the ground especially grassy areas. However, as James has noted below, I do not expect to see any travel issues.

The closed low opens up on Tuesday and moves northeast of us allowing us to dry out late Tuesday and Wednesday. The pattern remains somewhat complex with the long wave trough over the eastern half of the country for the rest of the week and into next weekend. This will keep us below average values for highs and lows for the week. A short wave Wednesday will bring another shot of cold air but it is expected to be dry with only some clouds to deal with.

Dry Thursday with a weak ridge and then another fast moving short wave on Friday. Again this brings some cold air for us but is not expected to have any precipitation. There will likely be some clouds, however, it should remain dry for us.

Ridging should keep us dry Saturday and Sunday, but there is an interesting pattern developing for early next week as we edge into voodoo country. The GFS is showing a closed low over southern California coming out our way on Tuesday. This is likely to bring some rich Pacific moisture with it. With the long wave trough over the eastern US bringing cold air across the East, we could see an interesting scenario unfold. This will certainly bear watching as we get closer to that event. The rest of the voodoo country look remains chilly for us and much of the eastern half of the country.

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Great day for football yesterday. I was pleased that my team was able to beat our arch rivals. The FSU Seminoles defeated Florida in an interesting game of scores on turnovers. Enjoy the day. James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing Monday morning. Stay tuned to the Blog for information n the upcoming events. Godspeed.

-Brian-

For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate, detailed information on past storms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. Whether it is an insurance claim needing validation or a court case where weather was a factor, we can furnish you with information you need. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.

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Category: Alabama's Weather

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Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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