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Rain and Colder – Snow?

| 7:38 am November 27, 2011 | Comments (10)

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What an interesting forecast challenge we have ahead of us. For the moment, rain covers nearly all of Alabama from south to north with rainfall amounts so far across the state in the one quarter to half inch range for many with some sections of western Alabama up to one inch or so. Looks like the rain will stick with us for the morning with a short break for the noon hour or so and then some more rain for the afternoon more in the form of showers. Also we have probably seen our highs for the day with temperatures expected to stay in the 50s for most locations in Central Alabama.

The deep trough coming across the Mississippi River will close off Monday and that cold core low will keep the weather unsettled for us into Tuesday. The low and the strong northwesterly flow will drop temperatures into the 40s for Monday. Any precipitation on Monday is likely to come in the form of rain, however, as we get into Monday evening and Tuesday morning, that will change. With a shallow warm layer we should see a mixture of rain and snow Monday evening gradually going over to all snow as the warm layer is wiped out. However the precipitation is likely to be light with no significant accumulation anticipated due to our warm ground. Since we could see snow showers with the strong upper low, some snow bursts are possible which could briefing cover the ground especially grassy areas. However, as James has noted below, I do not expect to see any travel issues.

The closed low opens up on Tuesday and moves northeast of us allowing us to dry out late Tuesday and Wednesday. The pattern remains somewhat complex with the long wave trough over the eastern half of the country for the rest of the week and into next weekend. This will keep us below average values for highs and lows for the week. A short wave Wednesday will bring another shot of cold air but it is expected to be dry with only some clouds to deal with.

Dry Thursday with a weak ridge and then another fast moving short wave on Friday. Again this brings some cold air for us but is not expected to have any precipitation. There will likely be some clouds, however, it should remain dry for us.

Ridging should keep us dry Saturday and Sunday, but there is an interesting pattern developing for early next week as we edge into voodoo country. The GFS is showing a closed low over southern California coming out our way on Tuesday. This is likely to bring some rich Pacific moisture with it. With the long wave trough over the eastern US bringing cold air across the East, we could see an interesting scenario unfold. This will certainly bear watching as we get closer to that event. The rest of the voodoo country look remains chilly for us and much of the eastern half of the country.

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Great day for football yesterday. I was pleased that my team was able to beat our arch rivals. The FSU Seminoles defeated Florida in an interesting game of scores on turnovers. Enjoy the day. James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing Monday morning. Stay tuned to the Blog for information n the upcoming events. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Comments

Category: Alabama's Weather

Comments (10)

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  1. oldmanwinter says:

    And pigs will fly by Wednesday after the great snow storm you predidict snowman. What do you base your forecsat on? Nobody else is predicting what you are. Not the NWS, James and team or the models. There is no science behind your forecast from what I and everybody else is seeing. But, you are intitled to your opinion. I for one hope you are right. I just doubt it.

  2. James Spann says:

    We welcome comments and criticism of our forecasts here, but we do not allow people to make their own detailed forecasts… anyone can set up a blogger account and do this for the world at no cost…

    For those new to our blog… the main things not allowed here in the comment section…

    *Profanity
    *Personal attacks
    *Hate speech
    *Making personal forecasts

    During active weather, this blog becomes mission critical for many Alabama businesses and schools, and confusion is something we avoid at all cost.

    Again, we welcome criticism and opposing points of view, but don’t express that as an “official forecast”. Thanks for your understanding.

  3. Vic Bell-Black Creek on Lookout Mt says:

    Apparently “oldmanwinter” has no problem stretching the truth. The NWS has been forecasting this for at least a couple of days. Go to the NWS site and enter a city in North Alabama. They’re all calling for a mix early then snow showers from midnight Mon til 0900 Tuesday. Here’s the forecast for Collinsville on the southern edge of the snow shield….not sure if this will allow links….. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Collinsville&state=AL&site=HUN&textField1=34.2666&textField2=-85.863&e=0

  4. oldmanwinter says:

    Hey Vic,
    I guess you didn’t get a chance to read the post before mine. It was what I was commenting on. The poster predicted a huge snow event and a lot of other alarming, emergency type situations. That’s why I commented and James deleted his. I almost always go with James and team forecasts and enjoy looking at what limited tools I can to see what might happen. I love weather. Especially snow weather! Hope we get some snow in the Ham but it just seems like it’s too warm for sticking. I sure would love it if it did! Anyways, I hope this cleared it up for you and we both can speculate together in peace but the guy before me was very crazy in his post.

  5. Vic Bell-Black Creek on Lookout Mt says:

    Sorry about that “oldmanwinter”. No, I didn’t see the other post. I thought you were referring to Brian when you said “snowman” and was slamming his post. Then I thought James was referring to your post. Sorry about the misunderstanding. Even though I had been in a long term snow drought up here until last winter, at least I get to see quite a bit falling with light dustings. I can understand how frustrating it must be for ya’ll in BHM.

  6. oldmanwinter says:

    It was very frustrating down here! I live close to downtown and we didn’t get as much as I would like. There were some huge snowfall totals not far to the north of here which made it worst. We did get to have a snowball fight in the front yard with family on Christams day. That was fun and a great gift after 43 years of brown christmas’s!

  7. Tony says:

    It’s very frustrating Because birmingham never gets the 5 to six inch snows. Its always an inch maybe two or nothing at all birmingham is a bust city when it comes down to snow and its been like that for years now and its never going to change.

  8. matt says:

    The National Weather Service says areas over 800 feet could experience stick conditions (Hazardous Weather Outlook). It is interesting to see elevation snow line in Alabama! The less time the snow has to spend in the warm layer the better. I live at 1000 feet so I got lucky on this one!

  9. Vic Bell-Black Creek on Lookout Mt says:

    Those temp levels really make a huge difference under ULL’s. We had one come over this area on the first day of spring about 10 years ago. Some places got as much as 10″ of snow while others just had a cold rain. I was about 860′ at that time with a view of a higher ridge called Big Mt. I could see snow on the ground just 50′ or so above me. Meanwhile It would snow like crazy here for a while and cover the ground good then change back to cold rain and melt it all. That cycle went on all day long.

  10. gregncrestwood says:

    All i can say is im “excited” about the chance for snow! My elevation above Bham is around 900 feet and we never get a forecast in November mentioning SNOW ever…. So with me being such a snow-lover i can only hope this is a good sign for snow this upcoming winter! Lets all who love to see the snowflakes fall just be thankful we might see snow in NOVEMBER which is an extreme rare thing especially in Birmingham, Alabama! Yeah!!

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