Wet Weather Ahead; Stormy At Times
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CHANGES COMING: Clouds are increasing across Alabama this afternoon ahead of a powerful storm system over the Southwest U.S., which is producing blizzard conditions from parts of New Mexico, across the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, and into western Kansas. Temperatures are mostly in the 50s this afternoon, and we expect relatively mild weather to continue through Friday.
TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: Showers should begin to develop across the state tomorrow, but the most widespread rain, and a few strong thunderstorms, will come tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. The 12Z GFS is printing 0.43″ with this event, with a similar total coming from the NAM. So, maybe rain amounts of 1/2 inch are more realistic, but still where heavier storms develop a few spots might get up to one inch of rain.
SEVERE WEATHER? Severe thunderstorms are possible over Mississippi tomorrow afternoon, and those could very well move into West Alabama tomorrow night, possibly continuing into Wednesday morning. The 12Z model set certainly suggests sufficient instability and shear values for a few severe storms, with surface based CAPE values to around 500 j/kg, and MUCAPE values to almost 1,000 j/kg. Low level helicity might suggest an isolated small tornado is possible with the stronger storms as well. Seems like the best risk of severe weather will be west of I-65 tomorrow night, but we can’t rule out a few severe storms over East Alabama Wednesday morning.
The primary threat will come from about 10:00 p.m. tomorrow night through 12:00 noon Wednesday. This is certainly nothing like our major spring events, but always something to watch closely. The rain will move out of the state Wednesday afternoon. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details.
MORE RAIN: The next impulse brings rain back into the state Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, and this could produced at least one inch of rain statewide. Some thunder is possible, but for now severe weather with this one looks rather unlikely.
FRIDAY AND THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND: Looks like we can forecast a clearing sky Friday, with only an outside chance of a stray shower. The weather stays relatively mild with a high in the 60s.
Global models continue to suggest cooler air will filter into Alabama over the Christmas weekend with highs dropping back into the 50s. The 12Z GFS is dry, but now the 12Z ECMWF hints at some risk of a little light rain Saturday night before a dry Christmas Day. Clearly confidence in any specific solution is rather low now with such an active pattern, but the trend has been for a drier forecast for Saturday and Sunday. We will keep an eye on model trends; see the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps, graphics, and details.
INTO 2012: The GFS keeps the North Atlantic Oscillation strongly positive into the New Year, meaning the weather here should remain relatively mild; any shots of colder air shouldn’t be that severe or long lasting.
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Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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