Strong To Severe Storms Possible Later Today
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ACTIVE WEATHER DAY: We begin the day with a showers and a few thunderstorms across a fairly large part of North Alabama early this morning. Nothing severe, but the rain is heavy in spots. There is no surface based instability now with temperatures generally in the 50s.
Later today, SPC defines the standard “slight risk” of severe weather for most of North and Central Alabama, and adjacent parts of East Mississippi. An Arctic cold front will approach, with decent upper air support and relatively strong wind fields during the time of maximum daytime heating, setting up potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.
You know the deal… with these cold season systems the primary limiting factor in the severe weather threat is the lack of instability. Data extraction from the NAM shows a peak CAPE (convective available potential energy) here at 608 j/kg this afternoon; other models are similar with surface based CAPE values between 500 and 800 j/kg.
Shear values are very significant, with the NAM showing a 0 to 3 SRH (storm relative helicity) at 457 m2/s2 this afternoon. A classic high shear, low CAPE winter event. We also note the forecast STP (significant tornado parameter) values are over 2.0 over West Alabama late this afternoon, which is quite significant.
BOTTOM LINE: We will forecast a chance of strong to severe storms over North and Central Alabama, with the main window coming from 2:00 p.m. until 8:00 p.m. A few storms could produce hail and strong winds, and an isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out. We will keep a close eye on the radar… stay tuned to the blog and ABC 33/40 for updates as needed.
QUICK COLD SHOT: The weather will be sharply colder tomorrow. The sky becomes sunny with a high in the upper 40s. And, by daybreak Thursday, most places around here will be somewhere between 25 and 30 degrees. But, we warm up into the upper 50s Thursday afternoon with a strong January sun.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Clouds begins to return Friday as southerly winds kick in, and a few showers could show up late in the day or Friday night. But, Saturday looks relatively wet as we begin the weekend with a good chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. The GFS is now similar to the ECMWF, showing the main band of rain in here during the day Saturday. The weather will be mild with a high Saturday afternoon in the low to mid 60s.
Sunday looks warm, with a high in the 65-70 degree range, with a mostly cloudy sky and some risk of light rain at times as low level moisture remains pooled across the Deep South. Pretty much the same story Monday; the high will be close t0 70 with a few showers possible.
SEVERE WEATHER NEXT WEEK? The storm chaser guys are buzzing about the potential system that the GFS shows impacting Alabama on Tuesday of next week, with a strong, negative tilt upper trough and strong wind fields, along with good instability for January. But, before you get too concerned, we note the ECMWF has nothing to do with this, and shows a weaker system impacting Alabama much later in the week. So, it is a low confidence forecast that we can fine tune later this week. Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the details and graphics that go with this discussion.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode we recorded last night; it was great having Harold Brooks on the show.
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I have a weather program this morning over in Calhoun County at Weaver Elementary School… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video by 3:30 or so this afternoon, weather permitting. Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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