Very Cold Next Week; Some Ice?
The Friday morning ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
Let me say up front that I am sure what I write in coming days with make some people angry (why, in the world, I don’t know; life is too short to get your feathers ruffled by what some weather guy writes on a blog!)… but let me assure you my purpose here is simply to tell you what we believe will happen with our weather during the next 7 to 16 days. Whenever we mention cold weather, and some risk of wintry precipitation, I am telling you my honest opinion, based on the best science I know and understand, what is going to happen. Nothing more and nothing less… I don’t write to make any one group of people happy or disappointed. So. having said all of that… here we go…
MILD THROUGH SUNDAY: Very little chance of significant rain through Sunday with very mild afternoons. I think there will be some decent intervals of sunshine along the way, and we should reach the low 70s on Sunday, very close to record levels for January in Alabama.
TO THE WEST AND NORTH: A very deep, cold upper trough will continue to move slowly through the western U.S. And, up north, bitterly cold Arctic air has crossed the Canadian border. Minot AFB, North Dakota right now is reporting 21 degrees below zero with a wind chill index of 42 below. I have great concern the GFS doesn’t understand the depth of this cold air, and we need to remember that as we look forward to next week and the arrival of that cold air here in Alabama.
A nasty ice storm will unfold over much of Oklahoma, and parts of Northwest Arkansas and Missouri over the next 48 hours. Major ice accumulations are likely with extended power outages possible in this region, and travel will become difficult if not impossible. Snow is likely where the cold air is deeper over West Texas, including places like Amarillo and Lubbock.
MONDAY: The band of rain and storms will finally move into Alabama Monday. SPC has dropped the severe weather risk, but we will have to watch for strong storms as it will be another low CAPE, high shear event, like the last two. Then, cold air advection kicks in Monday night as the shallow, leading edge of the very cold Arctic air moves into the state.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: I think the GFS MOS has no clue on these days. It is suggesting highs in the 40s; I say highs will be only in the 30s. And, with the front stalling over far South Alabama, and a continued southwest flow aloft, there is a very real chance of overrunning. Precipitation seems likely on Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday. And, I do believe there is a very real chance of some freezing rain and icing problems on the northern periphery of the precipitation over North Alabama during this time. I won’t even rule out a wave forming on the front, which would mean a more serious icing situation. At first glance the greatest risk of any icing problems would be along and north of U.S. 278, but possible as far south as I-20.
This is not voodoo land, this is within our seven day target. Needless to say, the forecast will be fine tuned as we go along here, but for now I think we will see highs in the 30s, lows in the 20s, and some risk of freezing rain north of I-20 Tuesday, possibly into Wednesday. Forget the run to run model differences; just look at the pattern. Stay tuned.
LONG RANGE: The pattern sure looks cold and unsettled through the rest of the month. A very cold upper trough over the eastern U.S., and an active southern stream undercutting it. If we get through January without one or two good snow or ice threats I will really, really be surprised.
J.B. Elliott and I sure enjoyed our visit to Jackson, Mississippi last night; I spoke to the local NWA/AMS chapter there. A very nice turnout and some great hospitality. We also enjoyed visiting with the Clanton Kiwanis club and the Chilton County Homebuilders at midday for a combined meeting; I spoke to that group on the way to Jackson. I think I gained five pounds during the day, but I won’t tell you what we ate. What we eat on road trips is highly confidential.
WEATHER PARTY: Visit our sister site for the latest weather news, WeatherParty.com… always some interesting reading over there. Thanks to everyone who helps us by submitting stories; you can do that by registering.
I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
January 12th, 2007 at 6:44 am
James,
About 2 weeks ago, you said that you felt like “somebody in the deep south” would be dealing with a flooding threat in the January 12-13th time frame. Looks like you guys nailed that one! Everybody stay warm and safe over the next couple of weeks. God Bless
January 12th, 2007 at 6:58 am
I agree with you James and looking at the 06z GFS is already off on the tempuratures in MO by five to six degrees and this is very early in the model run (only 6 hours). It does appear that the cold air may come a little faster that the model is predicting. Should be interesting to watch how the model handels this situation the next few days.
January 12th, 2007 at 7:46 am
Let me say this from what I see on the video the models don’t want to move the cold air down this way that ridge in the gulf is holding everything up. Now by the time it does get here than I don’t think it will be that cold because I have seen this before very cold air up north and we think it’s coming and what happens the ridge is so strong that when it does get down here well it’s not that cold. Who knows if it does get here then we are going to be cold but right now I think the ridge is going to push it to the east and not south and when it does get here well it won’t be that cold only time will tell let’s wait till Monday and see if it’s going to come.
January 12th, 2007 at 10:45 am
James, don’t worry about people getting mad, write what you see. I love the way you do weather- you seem so optimistic. A real weather person, in my opinion, likes the potential weather problems. It gives you something to sink your teeth in. I know that you don’t want people to get hurt and you want to prepare them, too. Policeman, I’m sure, wish that violence would dissappear; but I believe they go into with the type of personality that comes to the plate when there is violence. Some people are so scared of getting weather forecasts wrong that they try to down play the chances of bad weather and often don’t prepare people in time. I know lots of people are listening to you because I saw a lot of gas trucks out yesterday. I had my husband check ours =-) Keep up the good work!!
January 12th, 2007 at 11:37 am
James, I also greatly appreciate you and the rest of the weather team. I think y’all do a great job. The most important thing is to keep us the viewers aware of all the possible scenarios that could happen. If there is a remote chance for danger or troubling weather here we should know about it in enough time to prepare. I’m not saying go out and clean the shelves of grocery stores but to make sure we get the things we need in time. Better safe than sorry.
You are so right Kelly, we knew we would need gas sometime next week but were thinking of waiting and decided to go ahead and get it today rather than wait and end up running out after we saw the weather predictions for next week.
January 12th, 2007 at 12:33 pm
James, What does the forecast hold for Nashville this weekend? Will the cold get there before Sunday? My son is planning a trip today thru Sunday.
January 12th, 2007 at 1:38 pm
Vanesa, you can always find the forecast for any city in the following link. This one is for Nashville, but you can enter any other city for their forecast.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?CityName=Nashville&state=TN&site=OHX
January 12th, 2007 at 2:21 pm
Hey James,
you know that old saying- if they are talking about you, their letting someone else alone. Well think of it as your doing someone else a favor lol.
Look- i don’t like running to the store buying milk and bread- fighting the long lines for it to do nothing. But i think if you did a poll 99% of the people would say they would rather be prepared and it go bust than left in a house with kids and no food or water or power.
You do what you do best James.
January 13th, 2007 at 8:04 pm
I would always rather be “safe than sorry”. We have 3 kids who eat like horses LOL! I can’t even imagine being stuck at home during severe snowy/icy weather without plenty of food and lots of diversions. Any threat like this calls for a trip to the grocery store, the library and the craft store to stock up on our favorites. Thanks for the heads up even if it turns out not to be exactly right!:)