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STILL WET: An upper trough will pass through Alabama today bringing periods of rain and possibly a few thunderstorms. Temperatures will stay in the 60s much of the day, so the air will be quite stable and we don’t expect any problems with severe weather around here. SPC has defined the standard “slight risk” to the east over parts of Georgia and South Carolina. Additional rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are likely before the rain ends late tonight.
MID-WEEK: The models are generally slower in moving the trough out, and it looks like we will have lingering clouds tomorrow morning; maybe even a little light rain in spots during the early morning hours over the eastern half of the state. In fact, the NAM is actually suggesting the entire day could be cloudy, so we will take a good peek at the new 12Z model set a little later this morning and adjust the forecast accordingly. If the sun can break through, we will reach the mid 70s tomorrow afternoon. Thursday looks like a delightful day, with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the upper 70s.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Moisture begins to return Friday, but there is little forcing and we believe the daytime hours will be dry with a partly sunny sky and a high around 80 degrees. Some rain could move into the state late Friday night.
The weekend looks wet, unfortunately. The last few runs of the GFS have developed a deep trough west of the state, with a significant surface low developing on the Louisiana coast (do we need to give this thing a name?). The 00Z GFS brings the low to a point near Dothan at midday Sunday, and of course on this track that will wet down Alabama. The heaviest rain should come on Saturday, but clearly we will need to mention clouds and some lingering light rain on Sunday as well if this scenario pans out. Rain amounts of 1-2 inches are likely over the weekend, but the good news is that severe weather won’t be a problem if indeed the surface low passes south of us.
We will also need to raise temperatures a bit over the weekend with daytime highs in the 70s based on this idea. Earlier runs suggested we would be in cooler with readings only in the 60s.
NEXT WEEK: If the idea of a surface low along the Gulf Coast is correct, it won’t be as cold as we thought early Monday, with lows mostly in the 40s. The first half of the week looks dry with a slow warming trend.
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Category: Alabama's Weather