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BENEFICIAL RAIN: Most places across Alabama have received between one-half and one inch of rain during the past 24 hours, but there are exceptions. Down around Mobile, some places have received almost one foot of rain; the total at Daphne, on the eastern shore of Mobile Bay, is 11.47″ as of midday. Our Skywatcher in Northport reports 1.18″.
Temperatures are only in the 69-74 degree range in most spots because of the clouds and rain; MOS guidance was way too warm today. No way we reach the 80s.
The rain will slowly diminish tonight as the deep moisture axis moves to the east, but the sky will remain generally cloudy.
TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: We begin the day tomorrow with low clouds, but that should give way to partly sunny afternoon. And, if the sun breaks out as expected, the day will be warmer with a high in the mid 80s. The chance of a lingering shower tomorrow is small.
The weekend will be like June; highs in the upper 80s with rather high humidity levels. At first glance Saturday still looks generally dry with only isolated showers or storms, but SPC maintains a “slight risk” of severe weather for the eastern two-thirds of Alabama, and all of Georgia. This is in response to a weak wave coming down in the northwest flow aloft, on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge over Texas and Louisiana. These features are pretty hard to identify far in advance, so for now we will just mention widely scattered showers and storms Saturday; but where storms do form they could pack a punch.
The GFS is showing moisture levels to be a little deeper Sunday, so we will need to mention some risk of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The high will be in the 87 to 90 degree range, and the chance of any one spot getting wet Sunday afternoon is about one in three.
AARON’S DREAM WEEKEND: The weather will be very warm at Talladega this race weekend, with highs between 84 and 89 degrees each day tomorrow through Sunday. We don’t expect any rain around the track tomorrow, and only isolated showers and storms Saturday. A brief passing shower or storm is possible Sunday, but really widespread rain is not expected. The chance of a shower or storm at the track is 10 percent tomorrow, 20 percent Saturday, and 30 percent Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: THe GFS shows a fairly moist airmass over Alabama for the first half of the week, meaning some risk of scattered showers and storms Monday through Wednesday. The 12Z GFS then brings drier air into the state Thursday and Friday; it does not phase up a major eastern U.S. trough, and leaves an upper low over Texas late in the week. This feature moves east, and then brings rain to Alabama the following weekend (May 12-13). But, the confidence in any specific solution beyond 5 days for now is low due to little model consistency. See the Weather Xtreme video for details and the graphics.
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I had a great time today visiting the kids at Greensboro Elementary School in Hale County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
Category: Alabama's Weather