Sunday Morning Thoughts
I know Brian will have a full post on here later… be sure and read that for a full discussion…
Lots of e-mail from people yesterday about “The Weather Channel” forecasting highs in the 60s all week. Needless to say, if that is indeed the case I think that borders on insanity. I guess they have automated forecasts from GFS MOS products, which are horrible in this kind of situation. GFS MOS products have busted by more that 25 degrees in some cases over Texas and Oklahoma in recent days. It doesn’t understand shallow cold air. And, this cold air is VERY shallow. Look at the soundings to the west. There is no real change to my thinking since last week.
The WRF/NAM MOS is beginning to get it now; it has a high in Birmingham of 41 for Tuesday… I still say we hold in the 30s all day. And, I still believe there might some risk of freezing rain over some part of North Alabama during the mid-week period. But, the big story is the change to cold weather.
If we have a high in the 60s on Tuesday, I will suck down a whole bottle of mayonnaise, something I have disliked since I was a young child. We will tape it and put it on the blog. For all the people who have sent in “hate mail” siding with “The Weather Channel’, if we are right and it turns sharply colder on Tuesday, you have to promise to quit sending nasty e-mail messages for a whole year. How is that for a deal?
Watch for Brian’s update shortly; I will have my next full discussion and video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow. Have to run off to church to deal with 500 children!
January 14th, 2007 at 8:13 am
Just to give an example of how difficult this weather situation is to forecast, I live in North Texas and my county (Hood) has been under an Ice Storm Warning for over 36 hours and have received absolutely nothing in terms of ice other than a slight glaze of ice on elevated services (and only if you look real close). Nothing at all on roads, sidewalks, etc… in fact, the roads are dry! I’m glad too because ice is crippling. That said, we’re still under the warning so I guess something can happen today.
January 14th, 2007 at 8:16 am
Ice Storm Warning in Shreveport, LA. Don’t see that too often!
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=LAZ002&warncounty=LAC015&local_place1=Rural+Bossier+Parish&product1=Ice+Storm+Warning
Just a hunch James, I don’t see any mayo in your future…
January 14th, 2007 at 8:34 am
James…just hope the front does NOT slow down!
January 14th, 2007 at 8:49 am
YOU TELL THEM JAMEES. I HAVE BEEN TRUSTING YOUR FORCAST SINCE YOUR DAYS AT CH 13. THE ONLY TIME I WATCH TWC IS DURING A HURRICANE. I HAVE SAT. TV SO I CAN’T GET THE NWS FORCAST ON THERE. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK.
January 14th, 2007 at 9:03 am
HAHA… that was great.
January 14th, 2007 at 9:05 am
ewww…. mayonaise. yuck! I have disliked that since a child too, when at school, I once accidently squirted some up my nose while opening a packet of the vile stuff……….
I feel confident that James will not have to eat mayo. So confident that if he has to then I will too!
January 14th, 2007 at 9:42 am
James,
I also do not think you will have to eat mayo. But, just in case, get some marshmellow cream and put it in an empty(clean) mayo jar. That way, in the unlikely event that we reach 60 on Tuesday, you won’t have to make yourself sick.
ugh! mayo is vile stuff…
January 14th, 2007 at 10:45 am
James,
I live in Nashville. The parents of my daughetrs boyfrield recently came over for dinner. They are from Alabama. As we were talking, we got on the subject of weather. The first thing our of both of thier mouths was James Spann. They went on and on about you…you have a good reputation, even this far north.
Nick
January 14th, 2007 at 11:07 am
Here is a AWESOME sounding with VERY shallow cold air!!!!
BUT…unfortunately this sounding is from KFWD valid yesterday at 6pm
but this is what James is talking about.
http://www.alabamaweather.org/pics/skew_KFWD.gif
January 14th, 2007 at 11:35 am
I understand how hard it is to forcast winter weather hear in alabama, i get very excited when winter weather is mentioned, you give them heck james
January 14th, 2007 at 11:39 am
Now that’s what I call a high confidence forecast James!
January 14th, 2007 at 12:08 pm
I was listening to G. Gordon Liddy last week and he had an expert on global warming, they were discussing it was a natural cycle and not caused entirely by man. Mr. Liddy mentioned how the programming on the Weather Channel has taken a left turn and a man causes global warming agenda since The Weather Channel hired a producer from CNN. I did not realize that a former CNN producer was calling some of the shots with The Weather Channel’s programming but, I have noticed the turn in their programming and have to agree with the “G Manâ€. With easy access to blogs as this and other reliable information VIA the internet I don’t watch The Weather Channel often.
January 14th, 2007 at 2:24 pm
James,
My kids have been praying since Jan 1 for “God to make it snow” “enough to build a snowman.” My kids are 7 & 4 and they fully expect God to answer them with some snow.
Trust me, I’m taking the cold weather VERY seriously! It may not happen this week, but I fully expect Chilton Co. to have enough snow for some serious snowman building sometime soon…
Thanks for all you do…
Linda in Verbena
January 14th, 2007 at 3:16 pm
I can’t believe people actually watch The Weather Channel any more. I haven’t watched them in years. Besides having “canned” forecasts, they subscribe to the “sensationalism” that has permeated the news industry.
January 14th, 2007 at 4:42 pm
The what channel? The weather channel never gets anything right for southern middle Tennessee and north Alabama
January 14th, 2007 at 4:44 pm
forgot to say….GIVE ME AN ORDER OF JAMES AND HOLD THE MAYO & TWC!!!!
January 14th, 2007 at 6:49 pm
I haven’t watched the weather channel in years. You know back when they played Kenny G before he became famous.
Most of us have memories of winter storms as they are rare in our neck of the woods. Many years (don’t say how many)
ago when it snowed my Mother would make snow cream. Radioactive snow cream was the joke we played on little brother to explain why he should not have his share. We still laugh in our advanced years of those great days on the farm. In 1999 I started playing around with photography and have waited years now to take a photo of the old barn bathed by snow in moonlight nestled in a pine thicket with just a glimpse of an old homemade barbed fence steadfastly remaining.
January 14th, 2007 at 9:56 pm
Hey Sue: I remember the radioactive snow cream from the 60s. If people dont know what we are talking about, in those days us and the Russans were doing above ground nucular weapon testing. There was a slight chance of some radioactive fall out in the snow fall. Snow is rare in Central Alabama, we made it and ate it anyway, maybe thats why I an so messed up now LOL.
January 14th, 2007 at 10:01 pm
I have 3 sons the oldest being 18 and the youngest 11.. We have not had a good snow here since the 11 year old was born. I would love to have the Kodak moment this year. All playing in the snow.. I figure this year will be my last chance for that since the 18 year will go off to college next year. Only home on holiday’s and we all know that snow on Christmas is hard to get!
I love reading everyones posts.. Keep it coming..
January 25th, 2007 at 1:27 pm
[...] Seems like the e-mail hate crowd is back; the same ones that were sending some really nasty messages back on January 13-14 when we were forecasting a major change to colder weather, while “The Weather Channel” was forecasting highs in the 60s. The cold air came right on time, and as forecast with that event. [...]