Active Weather To The West

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THIS AFTERNOON: A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for much of North and Central Mississippi this afternoon thanks to an MCS (mesoscale convective system) over western Mississippi; these storms are crossing I-55 now, and have prompted a number of severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for counties over the western part of Mississippi.

But, here in Alabama, the weather is hot and dry on our end of the state with temperatures generally in the low 90s. Birmingham reported 92 degrees at 3:00. We note a few severe storms have formed near the coast over Mobile and Baldwin Counties, and they are barely moving.

The storms to the west are moving slowly in our direction, but the air is pretty dry around here (the dew point at Birmingham has dropped to 48 at 3:00), and there is reasonable chance these storms will begin to fall apart as they try and cross the border this evening. But, as you know, when it comes to thunderstorms you have to expect the unexpected, so we will keep an eye on radar trends.

The big action will be well to the west this evening and tonight; SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe weather for much of Oklahoma and some of the adjacent states. Hail is the biggest threat, although a few tornadoes are certainly possible.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: It still looks like most of the day tomorrow will be hot and dry with a high in the low 90s, much like today. Then, an organized band of rain and storms will move into the state tomorrow night, and SPC maintains a “slight risk” of severe weather for about the northern two-thirds of Alabama. The best helicity values will be north of Alabama, so again it looks like the tornado threat here will be low; the main risk will come from hail and high wind.

The heat will break on Friday; both the NAM and the GFS are printing a high in the upper 70s because of the morning rain.

In terms of timing, models now generally agree the main threat of strong to severe storms will come from about 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 9:00 a.m. Friday. The sky should clear during the midday hours Friday, and Friday night will be delightful with a clear sky and cooler temperatures… we should reach the mid 50s by daybreak Saturday.

OUR WEEKEND: Saturday will be a very nice early June day. Lots of sun, low humidity, and a high only in the low to mid 80s. Looks like we will need to insert a chance of widely scattered showers Sunday afternoon as moisture begins to return. Sunday’s high will be a tad warmer, in the mid to upper 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Looks like we will have the standard risk of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms Monday and Tuesday… the 12Z GFS then shows a back door cold front giving us a good round of showers and storms on Wednesday, followed by cooler air. A good chance we will see temperatures here below average for the first 7 days of June.

BERYL: The tropical depression is east of Wilmington, North Carolina and is slowly moving back over the Atlantic. Looks like a possible tornado damaged homes near Jacksonville, NC this morning in a spiral band around the system…. Beryl will accelerate east away from the U.S. in coming days as a post-tropical storm. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details and all of the graphics.

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I will be taking a couple of days off… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow through Sunday; I will be back in service Monday of next week!

Tags: hot

Category: Alabama's Weather