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SETUP CONTINUES FOR BADLY NEEDED RAIN: All of the ingredients are in place for the potential for beneficial rain across Alabama for the rest of the week. We have a deep supply of tropical moisture, a stalled surface front north of here, and cooler air aloft than average for mid-July. Accordingly, our forecast will continue to mention scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through Friday with the sky occasionally cloudy.
REMEMBER: Summer storms even in this pattern still tend to be rather random and can be frustrating. You can often hear thunder, see lightning, and feel the cool breeze associated with the gust front of a nearby storm, but not get a drop of rain. If you have missed the summer downpours over the past few days, you will have plenty of chances in the days ahead. No such thing as an “invisible force field” keeping you dry. Often in summer it is simply a matter of luck, and I am very comfortable in forecasting some good rain for every Alabama county and community between now and Sunday.
Watch the Weather Xtreme video… you will see that the HPC outlooks suggests rain totals of around 5 inches near the Tennessee border between now and Saturday night, with amounts of 2-3 inches down this way along the I-20/59 corridor.
COOLER THAN AVERAGE: We should be in the low 90s this time of the year, but it looks like we might not reach the 90 degree mark for a few days; the NAM is printing a high (for Birmingham) of only 87 today, 85 tomorrow, and 86 on Thursday. This, of course, is due to clouds and rain, but the break from the heat is certainly welcome.
OUR WEEKEND: Showers and storms should thin out just a bit over the weekend; expect a mix of sun and clouds Saturday and Sunday with scattered showers and thunderstorms; highs should be in the low 90s.
LONG RANGE: Still nothing to suggest any runaway heat for Alabama through the end of July… see the Weather Xtreme video for the details. Looks like a pattern for above average rain, and below average temperatures.
AT THE BEACH: Not much change at the coast this week… from Panama City to Gulf Shores expect about 5 to 7 hours of sun each day through the weekend with the daily chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs along the immediate coast will be in the 86 to 89 degree range. The sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 83 degrees.
TROPICS: All remains quiet across the Atlantic basin… we do note that Emilia is now a category four hurricane in the eastern Pacific, but it will remain far from land and is only a threat to shipping.
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I will be in Shelby County today speaking to a meeting of the Calera Chamber of Commerce… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather