Scattered Storms Stay In The Forecast
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NEW DAY, OLD FORECAST: The synoptic scale weather pattern won’t change much today. A weak disturbance (a surface trough) over Southeast Alabama is producing rather widespread, and very welcomed rain, for places like Dothan and Geneva this morning; up this way there is just one cluster of showers over Walker and Winston Counties as I write this, about the time the sun is coming up.
There will be sufficient moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the most numerous ones coming this afternoon and early tonight. The chance of any one spot getting wet today is about one in three, and the high will be very close to 90.
REST OF THE WEEK: Models continue to suggest showers will be fewer in number tomorrow, but then they increase again Thursday and Friday as an upper trough carves out over the eastern U.S. and a surface front approaches from the north. Seems like Friday could very well be the day with the best coverage of showers and storms.
WEEKEND PEEK: The GFS is still on the idea of drier air working into the northern half of Alabama Saturday. We all know you have to raise your eyebrow at this idea in early August, but if the forecast upper air pattern is correct, it would very well happen. We will trend toward a drier forecast for the weekend, with only isolated showers Saturday, and generally rain-free weather Sunday. Humidity values should be as little lower, and nights slightly cooler. We might even hear of low 60s early Sunday over some of the cooler spots of Northeast Alabama… just a little hint of fall in the air.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The general idea is that the hottest weather in the nation stays out west, and around here temperatures are not expected to get out of hand at least through mid-month. As usual in August, the main rain opportunities will come from the almost daily chance of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
TROPICS: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to become a minimal, category one hurricane later today; it will move into far northern Belize, or Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula late tonight. The rest of the Atlantic basin is relatively quiet. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details and graphics.
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Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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