Warm And Dry Through Mid-Week

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ANOTHER COOL MORNING: A few reports at 5:00 a.m….

Black Creek (northeast of Gadsden) 45
Scottsboro 48
Cullman 50
Fort Payne 52
Fayette 53
Birmingham 57

We will warm into the low 80s today with a good supply of sunshine. Then, expect mid 80s tomorrow through Friday thanks to an upper ridge across the region. While moisture levels will slowly rise, there is no forcing mechanism for precipitation and we will just mention a slight chance of a shower Friday afternoon.

WEEKEND FORECAST: Confidence is not especially high with inconsistent model output, but actually the 00Z runs of the GFS and the ECMWF are in better agreement. We will need to mention a chance of showers Saturday, and instead of drier air moving into the state Sunday, we are now looking at a large upper low forming west of Alabama, which will keep a chance of scattered showers into Sunday, followed by a more widespread rain event early next week on Monday or Tuesday (maybe both days).

For now it looks like the chance of any one spot getting wet Saturday and Sunday will be in the 30 percent bracket, with a higher chance Monday into Tuesday; if the ECMWF is correct we might be looking at a significant rain event early next week as as a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

TROPICS: The other wild card factor is the potential for some moisture from East Pacific Hurricane Miriam to get involved in the system early next week; if by chance that happens it might be a big rain event for us, but that remains to be seen. Miriam peaked at category three strength yesterday… she will slowly weaken in coming days and will move into Baja California this weekend as a mass of rain; moisture from Miriam will move up into parts of New Mexico and Texas late in the weekend.

Out in the East Atlantic, Tropical Storm Nadine just won’t go away. We have been talking about this for two weeks, and the system will keep looping around with no threat to land.

And, we note Super Typhoon Jelawat in the West Pacific is packing sustained winds of 160 mph, but for now it not close to land. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details and graphics.

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I will be doing a weather program this morning down in Jemison… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: warmer

Category: Alabama's Weather