Football Forecast Update

It’s a good news, bad news scenario for all of our friends interested in the conditions for today’s Alabama/Missouri game in Columbia, which kicks off just after 2:30 p.m.

Widespread showers and storms are occurring across eastern Kansas and more are forming to the south over Oklahoma. This activity is associated with the lift ahead of the big upper level trough advancing east from the Rockies. A warm front has lifted northeastward into Illinois, but heavy cloudiness covers most of Missouri this morning.

Right now, Columbia is mostly dry with a temperature of 63F, cloudy skies and and a south wind at 13 mph. There will be a few sprinkles and occasional brief periods of light rain. There could be some sunshine during the late morning hours, pushing temperatures into the middle and upper 70s.

As we move toward game time, showers and storms will increase in the Columbia area and will be likely during the game. Extrapolation shows the eastern Kansas storms will arrive in Columbia between noon and 2 p.m.

There will be lots of heavy rain and unfortunately lightning at times. Look for lightning delays. It will be breezy, with a strong south wind averaging 10-20 mph. The good news is that the chance of this activity being severe is actually rather low, as it enters an area of lower instability and weaker shear. But, still, be alert to the possibility that watches and even warnings may be required. We will post updates here all day.

So the good news is that the threat of severe weather during the game is low, but lightning and heavy rain will potentially be a big problem at times during the game.

The main threat for severe weather is actually tonight, as a squall line forms ahead of a cold front that will cross Missouri tomorrow. Damaging wind gusts of 75 mph and a couple of tornadoes are likely tonight across Central Missouri. The squall line should reach Columbia between 2-4 a.m.

The area is in an enhanced severe weather risk area from the Storm Prediction Center trough 7 a.m. Sunday.

Folks in that region will be glad to get the rain. 1.5-2 inches of rain is expected through Sunday in Central Missouri, which has been hit so hard by the drought this past summer. Over two inches is expected in southeastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, Iowa, Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

Auburn and UAB, and folks playing across Central Alabama don’t have weather problems today.

Auburn travels to Oxford to play Ole Miss (11:00 a.m. kickoff); the sky will be partly to mostly sunny during the game with temperatures rising from near 80 at kickoff into the mid 80 by the final whistle.

UAB will play at Houston (11:00 a.m. kickoff); this game will also be played with warm and dry conditions. A sunny sky; temperatures rising from the low 80s at kickoff into the upper 80s by the fourth quarter.

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