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Temps Near Record Levels

| 6:08 am December 3, 2012

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LONG LASTING COLD: Scroll down and read the post about “Understanding Alabama Winters”… and you will see that it doesn’t “get cold and stay cold” here. Sure, we do have cold and snow from time to time, but this is a very low latitude state, and old timers tend to have selective memories about weather in previous decades.

AMAZINGLY MILD: We are projecting a high today in the mid 70s around 74 degrees… that is 15 degrees above the average high of 59, and within two degrees of the record high for December 3, 76 set in 1982. The sky will be partly to mostly sunny. Mid 70s are likely tomorrow as well, although clouds will begin to increase ahead of a cold front.

SHOWERS RETURN: That front will bring chance of showers to Alabama late tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Looks like the main 12 hour for rain will come from about midnight tomorrow night through noon Wednesday. Rain shouldn’t be all that heavy; the NAM is printing only 0.13″ for Birmingham… while the GFS is at 0.36″. No severe weather, and probably not much thunder.

The weather will be a little cooler Wednesday with a high in the mid 60s. Still above average for early December.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: I think these two days will be mostly dry; highs will be in the 60s with a mix of sun and clouds. We might consider a small risk of a shower over Northwest Alabama late Friday or Friday night with an approaching front, but the chance is so small now we won’t mention it in the forecast.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: The weather on Saturday and Sunday will be unseasonably mild with a high in the low to mid 70s, much like this past weekend. A cold front will stall out north of here over Tennessee; I think we will mention just an outside risk of a shower on Saturday, mostly north of Birmingham, and most of Alabama will be dry Sunday as the front lifts northward as a warm front in response to a deepening surface low coming out of the Rockies.

LONG RANGE: The 06Z GFS suggests the next really big rain event for Alabama will come around 12-12-12… with a deep, negative tilt upper trough and a strong cold front. Could very well bring strong to severe storms if correct, followed by sharply colder air. The GFS shows temperatures about 15 degrees below average here around December 18; see the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details of the possible pattern change before Christmas.

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I will be doing a weather program this morning at Englewood Elementary School in Tuscaloosa… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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