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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Showers Return To Alabama

| 6:14 am December 4, 2012

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STILL VERY MILD TODAY: Yesterday’s official high in Birmingham was 73 degrees… that was three short of the record high of 76 set in 1933 and 1982. Today’s record high is 78 set in 1998; I think that record is safe also, but we are still projecting a high in the low 70s today with an increase in clouds.

We do note a few sprinkles near the Alabama/Mississippi border on radar this morning. A few raindrops are possible over the far western counties of the state during the day today, but most of Alabama should remain dry.

SHOWERS RETURN: We will mention a chance of showers tonight and tomorrow statewide. For the eastern half of the state, the best chance of showers will come after midnight tonight; West Alabama could see some rain at times this evening. The NAM has become a little more aggressive with rain; it shows 0.46″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is drier with 0.32″. There is not any really strong dynamic support, and we will project rain amounts of less than 1/2 inch for most of our state.

The surface front will fizzle out over our region tomorrow before any really cool air can return; the GFS shows a high of 69 tomorrow and Thursday, only slightly below highs of recent days.

We do note a wedge pattern setting up east of here tomorrow and Thursday; we will keep an eye on that to see if any of the colder air can drain into East Alabama, but for now it looks like the bulk of the CAD (cold air damming) impact will be over Georgia and points northeast.

I think the weather will be generally dry Thursday and Friday, but there will be a pretty decent amount of low level moisture in place, so a rogue shower can’t be ruled out in a few places. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s.

WEEKEND FORECAST: I really don’t think the weather changes much Saturday and Sunday. A cold front will be stalled north of here, and while we will have a fair amount of low level moisture in place, there is no real dynamic support for rain. Any showers Saturday should be few and far between, and mainly over the northern quarter of the state. Sunday looks mostly dry as well statewide. And, we stay very mild with a high at or just over 70 degrees both days.

NEXT WEEK: A rather dynamic weather system will impact Alabama around Tuesday. Some global model runs have shown a severe weather type setup for the state, followed by noticeably colder air on Wednesday. No way we can be really specific on this right now, and it is just too early to know if we will indeed have a risk of strong to severe storms, but we will keep an eye on it. One way or another it does look like a pretty good rain event with potential for one inch of rain for the northern half of the state; we sure could use that.

MID-MONTH PATTERN CHANGE? Odds remain high the upper air pattern will flip at mid-month, with potential for a cold change here in the December 16-22 time frame. Temperatures over Alaska and the western half of Canada remain brutally cold, and some of that air is poised to break away and move down this way. The first part of it arrives around the middle of next week, but the deeper part of the airmass should arrive before Christmas. Operational runs will come and go on this idea, but the ensembles and common sense sure support the idea. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details and the graphics.

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I will be doing a weather program today at Southside Elementary School in Etowah County… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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