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A Few Showers Through Tomorrow

| 3:43 pm December 4, 2012

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RADAR CHECK: Rain is mainly along and west of a line from Scottsboro to Birmingham to Marion to Thomasville this afternoon. We note a few thunderstorms over Northeast Mississippi north of Tupelo. Showers will move eastward tonight, and we will maintain the chance of some rain at times tonight and tomorrow. Possibly a little thunder, but no severe weather.

I still expect rain amounts to be generally less than one-half inch over Alabama, with the heavier totals to the west over Mississippi, where some communities could see one inch. The showers will taper off tomorrow evening, but we won’t see any really colder or drier air.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The weather on these days will remain unseasonably mild, with highs in the 68-71 degree range. However, the big exception could be East Alabama thanks to the cold air damming effect. This is when very cold air from the Northeast U.S. drains down the Appalachian Mountains; often reaching some East Alabama counties. Places like Cedar Bluff, Centre, Piedmont, Heflin, and Wedowee could see a high only in the upper 50s by Friday, while places like Tuscaloosa and Fayette will be closer to 70.

A moist airmass will stay in place, so a rogue shower could pop up in a few places, but most communities will be dry.

WEEKEND FORECAST: I honestly think most of the weekend will be rain-free for Alabama, as the best chance of rain will be to the north near a stalled surface front over North Tennessee. No doubt there could be a shower or two in spots Saturday and Sunday, but they should be few and far between. And, the very mild weather continues with a high in the low 70s both days.

NEXT WEEK: A fairly dynamic system is expected to bring a round of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Not sure we will have a severe weather threat, but it is not totally out of the question. The 12Z GFS is not really bullish on severe weather, but we will keep an eye on trends. This could bring one inch of rain to the northern half of Alabama, which is some rain we really need. Then, cooler and drier air moves in on Wednesday. This will the first phase of a cool down we expect over the latter half of December.

LONG RANGE: The real cool-down still seems ahead in the December 16-23 time frame, when the upper air pattern finally flips as a long wave ridge forms over the western half of the continent, with a downstream trough to the east. Nobody knows how cold it will get here, but it certainly should bring an end to the unseasonable warmth. Remember, it is brutally cold up north… up in the source region the community of Chicken, Alaska has dropped to 56 below zero in recent days. We will need to keep an eye on that air as it drops slowly southward. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.

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I had a great time today visiting the 5th graders at Southside Elementary School in Etowah County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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