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Slow Warming Trend Ahead

| 6:00 am December 12, 2012

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COLD MORNING: Clouds are still hanging tough over most of Alabama this morning, and temperatures have not changed much all night as most places are in the 30s. Rain is falling over parts of the Florida Panhandle and the southeast tip of Alabama as a strong upper trough approaches, but that rain will be moving to the east, and up this way the sky will become partly sunny. A slow warm-up begins as we should reach the mid 50s this afternoon.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: The warming trend continues; with a good supply of sunshine we reach the upper 50s tomorrow, and Friday’s high will be around 60. Early mornings will stay cold with lows in the low to mid 30s.

OUR WEEKEND: A storm system forms over the nation’s mid-section, and the trailing cold front will bring a chance of showers to our state. The GFS has not been very consistent on the timing; the 06Z run is back to the idea of the best chance of rain coming Saturday night into Sunday morning, but for now due to the uncertainty we will just mention a chance of showers both days, and fine tune the forecast as we get closer. Rain amounts should be light, generally under 1/2 inch. And, no strong storms. Probably no thunder.

Temperatures for the weekend should be fairly pleasant with highs in the 60s.

NEXT WEEK: The 06Z GFS is an outlier; we will depend on the 00Z GFS and the 00Z ECMWF runs for the forecast. We will leave Monday rain-free, and then bring in a cold rain on Tuesday as a very deep upper trough, perhaps even a closed cold core upper low moves right over us. Snow lovers will immediately note the critical thickness line (1000-500 mb) is near Birmingham on Tuesday, but that is primarily due to cold air aloft, and the low levels really aren’t supportive of snow here. But, some of our friends up in Tennessee and Kentucky might wind up with a few snow flakes from this.

But, we all know a cold core upper low is a weatherman’s woe, and dynamic cooling can produce some amazing weather sometimes, so we will keep an eye on it. But, again for now, we will just forecast some cold rain at times on Tuesday with a high in the 40s. Drier air arrives Wednesday with a clearing sky.

CHRISTMAS WEATHER? Nope, no skill in a specific forecast of course, but the overall pattern sure looks cold. And, perhaps unsettled. The GFS continues to show a couple of Gulf surface lows that give snow lovers some hope in the December 21-28 time frame, but we all know odds of a White Christmas around here are always small. The one we enjoyed two years ago is most likely a generational one. But, you can always dream. If you want to see the graphics and specific details, watch the Weather Xtreme video.

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Category: Alabama's Weather

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