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NICE WARM-UP TODAY: Another cold morning across Alabama with most communities below freezing, but we warm nicely today as temperatures rise into the low 60s this afternoon with a good supply of sunshine.
TO THE WEST: A major storm system is producing lots of mountain snow over the southern Rockies, and that will bring wet weather to Alabama before the weekend is over.
OUR WEEKEND: Clouds return tomorrow, and I think we will need to mention a chance of scattered showers as isentropic uplift begins. But, it won’t be a rainy day… the showers should be fairly scattered. The day will be pleasant with a high in the mid 60s. Clearly the best chance of rain comes Sunday and Sunday night, and thunderstorms should be involved as the air becomes unstable. We note that the NAM is projecting surface based CAPE values over 500 j/kg over North Alabama, and there is a decent amount of low level SRH (storm relative helicity). Somewhat marginal, and while SPC does not have any formal risk in place, they do have a 5 percent severe area on the day two convective outlook for most all of Alabama. Just something to watch as the system gets closer.
Rain amounts of about one inch are likely before the rain ends early Monday.
NEXT WEEK: We could very have some partial clearing Monday afternoon as drier air begins to filter in from the north. And, now both the GFS and the ECMWF are looking dry for Tuesday, and we will probably go ahead and drop the chance of scattered light rain on the afternoon update in the 12Z runs look the same. The weather will be a little cooler Tuesday with a high in the 50s.
Wednesday will be dry; then a cold front comes in here Thursday night with potential for a few showers, followed by colder air on Friday.
CHRISTMAS WEATHER: Be sure and see the Weather Xtreme video for a day by day breakdown… but the 00Z/06Z GFS still supports a chilly but dry Christmas Day. The model now wants to bring a system in here by Dec 26-27 with some potential for a cold rain, and maybe even a winter weather threat on the northern periphery of the precipitation… see the video for the details. Of course, all of this is out there in voodoo land and is very much subject to change.
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I will be doing a weather program this morning at Elvin Hill Elementary School in Columbiana… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather