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THIS AFTERNOON: Temperatures are generally in the 57-62 degree range across the great state of Alabama this afternoon. High clouds are beginning to move in from the west, but the low levels are still very dry. Tonight won’t be as cold as recent nights; the low should be in the low to mid 40s as the sky becomes mostly cloudy.
RAIN RETURNS: A few showers could break out tomorrow, but they should be widely separated. The sky will be mostly cloudy, and the high should be in the low to mid 60s. No doubt the big rain event will come Sunday into Sunday night, when a few strong thunderstorms could be involved. Surface based CAPE values are expected to approach 1000 j/kg by Sunday afternoon, certainly sufficient instability for strong storms; while the highest low level helicity values should be north of here, we still could see a few sustained updrafts. SPC does not have any formal risk area defined, but they do have most of the state in a 5 percent risk of severe weather Sunday. We will watch radar trends closely as storms become to develop.
We figure rain amounts will vary from about one-half to one inch over the northern half of Alabama, and the most widespread rain should come from 6:00 a.m. Sunday through 6:00 a.m. Monday.
NEXT WEEK: Rain will end from northwest to southeast Monday morning, and we might see a few peeks of sunshine by Monday afternoon. We have good model agreement now that Tuesday will be dry and cooler as the upper trough axis moves east of Alabama; the high will drop into the 50s. Wednesday looks pleasant with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the low to mid 60s.
Another cold front will pass through with another chance of showers and storms Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, then much colder air blows in here Friday (one week from today)… we might have a hard time getting past the low 40s if the 12Z GFS is correct.
CHRISTMAS FORECAST: Based on the latest guidance (12Z GFS and ECMWF), our weather looks pretty cold the weekend before Christmas (December 22-23)… with just a slow moderation Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Take a few minutes and watch the Weather Xtreme video for a day by day view with all of the maps and graphics.
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I had a great time today visiting with the kindergarten kids at Elvin Hill Elementary School in Columbiana… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by Monday morning at 7 a.m…. Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!
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Category: Alabama's Weather