Showers and storms are developing late tonight over southern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama. This activity will likely grow to become round one of a two round system for Alabama overnight and tomorrow morning.
These showers will increase in coverage and intensity overnight and should reach West Central Alabama counties like Pickens and Lamar between 2-3 a.m. They will build northeastward from Sumter to Walker and Counties by 4 a.m.
They should weaken as they reach I-65 by 6 a.m.
They will be accompanied by some heavy rain, especially west of I-65, with lesser amounts the further east you go. Severe weather should be minimal with this first round, but it can’t be ruled out.
Some moisture laden air is sitting over southern Louisiana, waiting to be lifted northward into Alabama later tonight and Thursday morning. It is the wild card in the potential for severe weather later in the morning.
By sunrise, a line of storms currently from east of Dallas into northeastern Arkansas will be crossing the Mississippi River. It will be powered by a strong cold front and pretty potent upper level system. But the wild card is the moisture. If higher dewpoints get pulled further north into Central Alabama, the chance of severe weather will be higher. But for now, it looks like the best chances for that will be further south.
The line of strong storms will reach western Alabama by 9 a.m. and it will race eastward across the area reaching I-65 by late morning and exiting eastern Alabama by mid-afternoon.
Winds aloft will be strong and it will not be hard for those strong winds to get pulled to the surface. We will have ample low level shear too, so we can’t rule out a few isolated tornadoes. But again, the instability may be so limited that even the shear won’t have anything to work with.
We will keep our finger crossed that no severe weather develops. But keep your source of warning information on alert and handy.
We will have periodic updates through the night here as the situation unfolds.