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RAW DAY: Despite sunshine in full supply, we won’t make it out of the 40s today with a strong northwest wind continuing, averaging 15-30 mph. The NWS has issued a “red flag warning” for this part of Alabama because of the danger of wildfires because of the very dry air and high wind. Tonight the wind will finally begin to die down, and we should be in the mid 20s early tomorrow. Both the GFS and the NAM are printing 26 degrees for Birmingham; colder valleys across North Alabama will be closer to 20.
PRE-CHRISTMAS WEEKEND: Expect a slow warming trend tomorrow and Sunday. Lots of sun tomorrow with a high in the low 50s; partly sunny with 60 degrees possible by afternoon. Dry air means no rain.
CHRISTMAS WEEK STORM SYSTEM: There will be rumors of snow for Christmas night and Wednesday for North Alabama, and needless to say there is absolutely no way now of resolving the really mesoscale details of this storm system, but the confidence is high in the overall idea….
MONDAY: Showers will break out over Alabama in the warm air advection pattern; the day will be cloudy with a high in the 60-64 degree range. Rain on Monday probably less than 1/2 inch with the occasional showers.
CHRISTMAS DAY: Wet is the word for Alabama. A surface low will form somewhere west of the state, anywhere from Longview, Texas to Lafayette, Louisiana. One way or another we expect periods of rain, with perhaps the most widespread rain coming Tuesday night as the surface low moves northeast. Should the surface low pass a little northwest of here, we might even hear a little thunder Tuesday night, but severe weather isn’t likely.
Back in the colder air, sure looks like a good chance of snow Christmas night for our friends in Arkansas. Maybe enough to get several inches on the ground in places.
WEDNESDAY: This is the tricky part of the forecast. Rain will end across Alabama, and temperatures should fall during the day as cold air streams in on the back side of the departing surface low. The ECMWF solution supports the idea of temperatures falling into the 30s, with some risk of snow flurries, mainly over the Tennessee Valley. The GFS is warmer and suggests no snow flakes. On the other hand, the Canadian (GEM) and NOGAPS are supportive of a little snow over North Alabama.
Bottom line is that we really won’t change our ongoing forecast. Rain ending Wednesday, colder with temperatures falling into the 30s, and some risk of a few snow flurries with no accumulation. Clearly the best chance of some snow accumulation will be north of here, over Tennessee and Kentucky.
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THE LAND OF VOODOO: The GFS is still on the idea of a Gulf Coast low around New Year’s Day… see the video for the details.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon…. enjoy the day…
Category: Alabama's Weather