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COLD START: Here are some 5:00 a.m. temperatures across the great state of Alabama… one of our coldest mornings so far this winter…
Valley Head 21
Black Creek (just northeast of Gadsden) 21
We will enjoy a good supply of sunshine today through scattered clouds, and there is a recent chance we reach the 50 degree mark for the first time since New Year’s Day, when the high in Birmingham was 55 (although that was reached just after midnight).
OUR WEEKEND: We expect a general increase in clouds tomorrow in advance of the next short wave, but moisture is very limited, and we don’t expect anything past a few sprinkles tomorrow afternoon, tomorrow night, or very early Sunday. Highs over the weekend should be in the 50s, not far from seasonal averages.
NEXT WEEK: Confidence is high in a mid-week soaking rain event, but timing remains problematic since the GFS and the ECMWF are still about 24 hours apart. The GFS brings the rain in here Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning, while the Euro holds the rain off until Wednesday night and Thursday. We will continue to buy into the ECMWF solution for now. The good news is that there is no surface based instability, and severe weather is not expected, although some elevated convection is certainly possible within the large rain mass. Looks like rain amounts of 1-2 inches can be expected.
Drier air returns at the end of next week, but it won’t be colder. In fact, we might see 60 degrees by Friday of next week.
BIG MID-MONTH COLD SHOT? The GFS is very consistent with the idea of very cold air moving down into the “lower 48″ later in the month. The first cold blast arrives around Sunday January 13, followed a rain event on 1/13. But, the coldest air shows up around January 16-20. If you buy the GFS low level thickness scheme, sub-zero readings could possible as far south as NE Tennessee, and single digits lows down into North Alabama. We caution you, this is all voodoo for now, but the consistency has our attention. There is also evidence of a SSW pattern (sudden stratospheric warming) similar to 12/1984-1/1985, which did indeed bring single digit lows down into Alabama.
Unfortunately for the snow lovers we really don’t see much on the maps now to suggest anything really interesting for them, but with such cold air possible they might have something to talk about later in the month. It will be interesting to watch; stay tuned…
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Category: Alabama's Weather