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Big Warm Up Ahead; Rain By Wednesday

| 3:31 pm January 7, 2013

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BEAUTIFUL MONDAY: Doesn’t get much nicer across Alabama. Ample sunshine today with temperatures generally in the mid 50s, right at seasonal levels for early January. The air is dry, and humidity levels are now. Tonight will be cold again with a freeze likely for the colder valleys.

ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD: A deep upper low over the Southwest U.S. will ultimately lift northeast, and bring a big soaking to much of the South-Central U.S. The 12Z model data agrees pretty well with previous runs, so here is the day by day breakdown…

TOMORROW: Clouds will increase, but the weather stays dry. Our high will be near 60 degrees as the “January thaw” begins. Rain and storms will break out over Texas; severe storms are possible from roughly San Antonio south to the Rio Grande.

WEDNESDAY: A warm front lifting north from the Texas low will bring occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two to Alabama. While a strong storm isn’t totally out of the question, severe weather is not expected. And, the warm-up continues with a high in the mid to upper 60s. Severe storms are possible Wednesday to the west, over parts of Southeast Texas and Louisiana.

THURSDAY: The upper system will lift northward across the Great Plains, with a surface cold front approaching the Mississippi River. A strong upper high is over the Bahamas, and should keep the main energy a little northwest of Alabama. But, there still seems to be a window for some potential for strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening, mainly over the northwest counties. The area we defined this morning still looks valid; best chance of strong storms will be north of a line from Millport to Double Springs to Athens. Otherwise, we will mention a good chance of showers and storms for the rest of North and Central Alabama during the day, and we warm into the low 70s.

FRIDAY: The upper support pulls away into Canada, and the front will stall out somewhere near or just north of I-59. The day will be warm, and a few showers are possible, but the rain won’t be especially widespread or heavy. We note the GFS is printing a high of 75 degrees Friday… if we reach that we will be within three degrees of the record high for January 11, 78 set in 1949.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Not much change Saturday and Sunday. We will stay in a very warm, moist airmass for January. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s, and while a few showers are possible both days, there isn’t much dynamic support for widespread rain. The sky will be generally cloudy, although the sun could break out at times.

The 12Z GFS shows a cold front moving in Sunday night, with a good chance of showers and storms, followed by sharply colder air Monday of next week. We might have a hard time getting out of the 40s Monday with a chilly north wind, which will quite a change from the 70s we will enjoy over the weekend.

MIAMI WEATHER: Just a 10-20 percent risk of a brief passing shower during tonight’s BCS Championship Game… otherwise the sky will be mostly cloudy, with 75 degrees at kickoff, and low 70s by the final whistle.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: The latest GFS brings in another round of rain at mid-week… we will keep an eye on that since there seems to be some risk of ice on the northern periphery of the rain shield over parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, or Kentucky. Then, even colder air blows in here by the end of next week as the Deep South goes back into the Deep Freeze. Take a few minutes and watch the Weather Xtreme video for the details and graphics.

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