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ON THE MAPS: A very deep upper low is over Mexico this morning, and as it lifts to the northeast it will bring soaking rains to much of Texas, and ultimately to Alabama. The risk of flooding, and the greatest risk of severe weather will remain west of Alabama, however. Here is the day by day breakdown…
TODAY: Clouds return to Alabama, but we stay dry. The high should be in the 57-60 degree range, and to the west rain begins to break out over Texas, where a flash flood watch is up for the I-45 corridor between Dallas and Houston. Also, severe storms are possible late today and tonight over South Texas roughly from Austin and San Antonio east to the Gulf Coast.
TOMORROW: A warm front will push northward through Alabama, with developing showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Nothing severe, and it won’t rain all day. We warm into the 65 to 69 degree range as the January thaw starts to kick in. And, more active weather to the west where heavy rain and severe storms are possible over Southeast Texas and parts of Louisiana.
THURSDAY: Showers and storms will increase across Alabama late in the day into Thursday night as the surface front approaches. There is no formal severe weather risk defined by SPC, and the severe weather threat for our state is somewhat marginal. Still, I can’t rule out a strong to severe storm Thursday evening, mainly over Northwest Alabama where you find the best combination of instability and shear. As the storms moves to the east Thursday night, the upper support pulls away and the marginal severe weather threat fades by midnight. While a few heavy downpours are possible, we don’t expect enough rain for flooding issues here. The day will be very mild with a high in the low 70s.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Warm is the word. Highs in the 72 to 75 degree range are likely… the record high for Friday (January 11) is 78 set in 1949, and the record for Saturday (January 12) is 75, set in 1916. We might give that January 12 record a run for the money. The sky will be generally cloudy both days, and while a shower or two is likely, rain should be light and not especially widespread, and the sun might even break out at times.
SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY: Another slow moving cold front approaches late Sunday, and there is concern this could set up a long duration, heavy rain event over North and Central Alabama with potential for flash flooding. The 06Z GFS keeps the heavy rain axis over us late Sunday night, Monday, and even on Tuesday, with potential for well over two inches of rain. Way too early to be too specific here, and this could change, but something to watch in coming days. We won’t really get into colder air until the middle of next week after the rain ends.
Thickness values suggest we won’t get out of the 40s by Wednesday of next week as cold air returns. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details, and more ideas about long range weather.
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Category: Alabama's Weather