Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

Severe Weather Potential Tomorrow

| May 7, 2008 @ 3:32 pm | 8 Replies

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…

After a review of the 12Z model runs, not much change in our thinking for the next 36 hours.

RIGHT NOW: SPC has a moderate risk up for the general area between Dallas/Fort Worth and Shreveport, and a large slight risk from Houston to St. Louis. Severe storms are breaking out now north of Abilene.

THE ALABAMA STORY: Birmingham is up to 83; Maxwell AFB near Montgomery reports 86 at 2:00. I still think we have a good shot of making 85 in Birmingham today, making it the warmest day so far in 2008.

TOMORROW: SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for much of Alabama tomorrow as the short wave approaches. Here are some severe weather parameters from the 12Z NAM:

Surface based CAPE: 1697 j/kg
0-1km energy helicity index (EHI): 1.65
Significant tornado parameter (STP): 1.69
Craven/Brooks severe weather index: 32,063
0 to 3 km storm relative helicity: 427
LCL height: 776 m

Those numbers have ramped up considerably, and certainly raise a flag for the potential for severe storms tomorrow across Alabama.

The main window for thunderstorms will be from 12:00 noon until 10:00 p.m… and the best chance of isolated tornadoes will come from about 1:00 until 6:00 p.m. Large hail and damaging winds are also going to be possible in the storms. Looks like a busy weather day, so stay tuned for updates.

Rain totals of one-half to one inch are likely; the 12Z NAM is printing 0.78″ for Birmingham.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The weather looks warm and mostly dry Friday and Saturday, with afternoon highs well into the 80s. Any showers should be few and far between; most places will be dry. Showers and storms return Sunday with the next short wave; some chance that strong storms will also be an issue Sunday; we will deal with that system on a more detailed basis after the one tomorrow moves on out of here.

NEXT WEEK: Still looks like a good rain/thunderstorm event around Wednesday of next week. A chance of rain also shows up on the 12Z GFS for May 16-17 as an upper trough forms over the eastern half of the nation. This, of course, is voodoo now since it is beyond seven days.

SCHOOL CLOSING DURING SEVERE WEATHER: Check out the poll on the blog… and you can see the split opinion over the closing of schools during severe weather in Alabama. Seems like some knucklehead put up a bogus comment here about a school system closing tomorrow; I assure you a school system won’t announce this on a blog post; look for official notices over on the main ABC 33/40 web site.

Most of you know I am not a big fan of schools closing due to severe weather; in a large percentage of Alabama school systems, school buildings offer much better protection that the structures kids are living in, mainly areas with a high percentage of mobile homes. If nothing else, I believe kids should have the option of staying at school in the event of a system closing. It is all a matter of safety. I will write more about this topic later.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

I had a great time today speaking to the senior adults at East Lake United Methodist Church… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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