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As James has noted below, the cold air that has remained well to the northwest of us is finally knocking on our door. But we get one more day of warm weather before temperatures remind us that it is, indeed, winter. I noted on the weather cast last night that the temperature contrast from Little Rock to Tulsa was on the order of 40 degrees, so the temperature change across the frontal boundary is substantial.
Looks like we will see a fairly dry day today with only patchy light rain to go with the warmth. But the rain chances will increase significantly this afternoon and into tonight as the overall frontal boundary edges into our area. The upper trough continues to hang back in the Southwest US but the whole trough is laying over giving just enough of a push to bring the frontal boundary into Alabama. That means a wet period from this afternoon through Wednesday morning. It also means the cold air will settle into Central Alabama with a couple of raw days on tap for both Monday and Tuesday with little temperature change as readings stay mainly in the 40s.
Rainfall amounts could reach up to 3 inches during this period. While flash flooding does not appear to be an issue, the wet January has swollen streams, so flooding issues are likely to come about with this period of rainy weather. This rain is likely to push the Tombigbee River above flood stage around Aliceville and the Beville Lock and Dam.
The trough continues to hang back to the west of Alabama until Wednesday when it finally moves by ending the rain at least temporarily. Clouds return along with rain chances on Thursday, but after Thursday a surface high will settle into the area providing us with dry weather for next weekend along with temperatures close to seasonal values, highs around 52 and lows around 32.
Long range GFS model solutions bring winter back for week 2 with the establishment of a long wave trough position over the eastern half of the country. This trough should maintain a strong northwesterly flow pattern with a big ridge in the West.
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James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. Enjoy this warm day but get the winter clothing out to cope with the next two days and have the umbrella handy for the rain. Godspeed.
Category: Alabama's Weather